Jorge Zanelli CECS-Valdivia, Chile

1. Latin America’s Nuclear Energy Future 29th Annual Journalists & Editors Workshop on Latin America & the Caribbean Latin America’s Energy Future Latin America and Caribbean Center Florida International University Miami, May 06, 2011 Jorge Zanelli CECS-Valdivia, Chile

2. After Fukushima:Does nuclear energy have a future in Latin America?

3. Safer (fewer casualties) • Cleaner (enviro-impact) • Lower in GHG emissions than coal, hydro, gas, wind per MWe generated The nuclear power industry is 50 years old It is Mature and successful • World outlook • Competitive with coal, much better than renewables • It does help keep the electricity bills low • It represents 16% of the world’s electric generation • It produces only 2% of electricity in Latin America Why is NP so marginal in L. A.? Will it continue to be so?

4. 2 2 2 China, Russia, India and Korea lead “nuclear renaissance” Key factors: Safety, supply security, environment, economics

5. Why would energy-rich countries start nuclear power programs? Why would they consider expanding them? • Latin American outlook • Argentina and Brazil evolved from secret weapons • programs (50s-80s) to civilian, peaceful applications • (medicine, industry, electric generation). • Both countries dominate the entire fuel cycle. • Mexico had a different motivation from the start: • electricity. No interest in completing the fuel cycle. • All have expansion plans for the next decade.

6. Argentina: 10% Nuclear Grid 2 operating reactors 1,000 MWe 1 almost ready 750 MWe 2 projected (10 years) 1,000 Mwe Brazil: 3% Nuclear Grid 2 operating reactors 1,900 MWe 1 under construction (2016) 1,270 MWe 4-5 projected (15 years) 5,000–6,250 Mwe 23-24 Gwe by 2025 Mexico: 5% Nuclear Grid 2 operating reactors 1,660 MWe 1 under construction (2015) 1,200 MWe 7 projected (15 years) 8,400 Mwe

7. Newcomers: Chile, Uruguay, (Venezuela ?) • Second row: Colombia, Peru, Ecuador . . . • Third row: Central America, • Newcomers would probably follow the path of Mexico: • NP as an electric source • No particular interest in complete fuel cycle • Turnkey projects. • Small countries should form clusters to expand their • grids, making them more robust and stable, to exploit • economic advantages of NP. • Projections

8. Expected number of reactors operating in Latin America 2010 -- 2050 • Projections 7 to 15 fold growth in 40 years

9. According to the MIT study, meeting the goal of CO2 • reductions, nuclear energy generation in L.A. should grow • from the current 4.5 GW to 70 – 150 GW by 2050. • Challenge • A 17 – 35 fold expansion in next 40 years is possible but • unlikely unless strongly supported by governments and the • public. This is twice the current projection of Ar, Br & Me. Is this a realistic goal for L. A. ?

10. The convenience for interconnected grids in Latin America (Southern Cone, Andean Region, Central America + Mexico), makes the nuclear option more attractive, convenient and feasible. Common electricity markets have economic advantages by compensating for seasonal, local variations. Electric interconnection and collaboration around nuclear projects offers an exceptional opportunity for regional integration and cooperation. Example of Euratom. Nuclear integration would expand the technological markets of the region, facilitate training of human capital and help building confidence, reducing the risk of proliferation. • Oportunities

11. Sociopolitical and geopolitical barriers: • Trust-building • Guarantee to stakeholders • Commitment from • the political class Needed to gain public support and international acceptance • Material barriers: • Addressing financial, technical, geographical challenges • Establishing necessary regulatory infrastructure • Training of human resources, etc. • Barriers Fukushima • Dealing with these issues requires maturity and sustained, • consistent public policies over several decades

12. To a large extent, the political agenda will be shaped by the public perception. The press has an important role to play (Worldwide alert after worst nuclear crisis in Japan) The press is, to a large extent, responsible for the Fukushima hysteria

13. What happened at Fukushima Daiichi? • The reactors shut down as planned • Emergency systems started to cool the reactors as expected, but 45’ later they were destroyed by tsunami • All preventive measures to protect the population and plant workers (evacuation, iodine pills, etc.) were taken • The lack of cooling produced a hydrogen explosion that seriously damaged 3 reactors. • This was natural disaster of an unprecedented scale • Reactors withstood earthquake and tsunami much greater • than the standard for which they were built. • The destruction of the emergency systems was due to • poor planning and underestimated risks

14. Fukushima today • The situation is still serious but under control. • Some radioactive material was released to the environment. Not a serious threat to human health. • No cases have been reported of heavy exposure. • No casualties have occurred (unlikely to occur). • Major problem in exclusion zone is humanitarian, not radiation. • The impact of the nuclear facility is negligible compared to the effect of the tsunami (>20.000 killed) • Nowhere near the scale of Chernobyl.

15. What are the lessons? • The nuclear technology did not fail. • The response of nuclear authority was adequate to manage the social and public health aspects. • The management of the damaged facility was open, transparent, and technically appropriate. • Instructions to population and the personnel were appropriate to minimize risk of radiation exposure. • Environmental impact much less initially expected

16. What will be the consequences of Fukushima • Political: - Freeze-out of nuclear agenda • (immediate) - Boost of anti-nuclear activism • 2. Industry: - Changes in the procedures and standard • - Technological development • 3. Energy future: - It will depend on what we do now • - People will mostly forget • - Politicians will downplay nuclear until the next crisis comes…

17. Summary • The nuclear power is a mature and successful industry in • Latin America. • Its contribution is still marginal and restricted to 3 countries • (2% of LA’s electric power) • Substantial projected growth with some new players • (Chile, Uruguay, ...) • Important barriers and uncertainties resulting from the long • time required to put a NPP in place in a mood-changing • environment. • The press could play an important role in educating or scaring • the public about nuclear energy.

18. Thanks