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Virginia Yield Trend

160. 140. 120. 100. Grain Yield, bu/ac. 80. 60. y = 1.2755x - 2445.3. 2. 40. R. = 0.0765. 20. 0. 1985. 1990. 1995. 2000. 2005. 2010. Virginia Yield Trend. +10.7. -8.5. USDA, NASS, 2008. 160. 140. 120. 100. Crop Value, Million $. 80. 60. 40. 20. 0. 1995. 1996.

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Virginia Yield Trend

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  1. 160 140 120 100 Grain Yield, bu/ac 80 60 y = 1.2755x - 2445.3 2 40 R = 0.0765 20 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Virginia Yield Trend +10.7 -8.5 USDA, NASS, 2008

  2. 160 140 120 100 Crop Value, Million $ 80 60 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2006 2007 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2003 2004 2005 Crop Value to Virginia USDA, NASS, 2008

  3. 600 500 400 Planted Acres, 1000's 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2006 2007 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2003 2004 2005 Virginia Planted Acres USDA, NASS, 2008

  4. December 2008 Corn CBOT.com 3/12/08

  5. Current Research Topics

  6. Examples 3000 lb (DM) of Vetch as a cover crop can produce 80 lb N/ac. Cover crop needs to grow until early May to achieve this much DM. How much yield do I give up by planting at this later date?

  7. Delayed Planting? 14.2 200 180 160 4.6 140 120 10-May Modeled Grain Yield, bu/ac 100 20-Apr 80 60 40 20 0 Best yield 75% Median yield 25% Worst yield percentile percentile

  8. What the Sensor “Sees” The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values

  9. Note that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI value

  10. N Application Model

  11. Large Scale Strip Trials • Compare grain yields following • sensor-based, variable-rate N • applications and standard in-season N recommendations for Virginia

  12. LB N/AC BU/AC STD 65.6 85.9 GS 61.2 85 STD-GS -4.4 -0.8 LB N/AC BU/AC STD 100 147.9 GS 79.1 148.5 STD-GS -20.9 0.7 The System • Wheat • 16 Studies • Corn • 11 Studies

  13. 30 Inch 15 Inch 20 Inch Twin 30 Inch y = -0.0003x + 154.31 y = 0.0009x + 120.08 y = 0.0014x + 110.37 y = 0.0021x + 82.01 R 2 = 0.4189 R 2 = 0.3072 R 2 = 0.6138 R 2 = 0.8312 170 165 160 155 Yield, bu/ac 150 145 140 135 130 25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 37000 39000 Plants/ac

  14. Price Paid to Farmers/Bu Corn USDA, NASS, 2008

  15. Corn is king -- and therefore a growing problem • Increasing dependence on the grain leaves the U.S. vulnerable to drought-induced price spikes in food and fuel. • Jerry Hirsch, Los Angeles Times March, 2008

  16. Rick Tolman, NCGA

  17. Rick Tolman, NCGA

  18. In January, China levied export tariffs of 5% for corn, rice and soybeans and 20% for wheat to keep grains from leaving the country. • The Russian government has increased grain export tariffs by 40% - Jan 30, 2008 • Argentina and other nations also are placing tariffs on grain exports to protect their food supplies.

  19. NCGA

  20. Corn Nutrient Efficiency 3.5 2.89 3.0 2.49 2.5 2.1 1980 2.0 1.65 Bushels of Grain/ lb Fertilizer 1990 1.33 1.5 1.05 1.03 2005 0.84 1.0 0.61 0.5 0.0 Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium

  21. World Wheat Production

  22. 300000 250000 200000 Production (1000 bu) 150000 100000 50000 0 Texas Virginia Kansas Montana Colorado Nebraska Oklahoma Washington South Dakota US Winter Wheat Production 24th of 42 States USDA, NASS

  23. Virginia Wheat 70 60 50 40 Wheat Value (million $) 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 USDA, NASS

  24. Virginia Wheat Yield USDA, NASS USDA, NASS

  25. $ !

  26. World Wheat Stocks 40 Production Disappearance 35 30 25 Stocks:Use Ratio 20 15 Lowest since 1948 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 FAO

  27. Future directions for VA • Increased Value Small Grain Crops • Bread Wheat • Durum Wheat • Other IP Wheat Opportunities • Strong gluten • Super soft • Hulless Barley

  28. Survey What price/bushel level would it take for you to re-introduce wheat on your farm or increase wheat acreage? 6% $3.50-3.75  28% $3.76-4.00  48% $4.01 + 17% Do not plan to grow wheat regardless of price

  29. Wheat Prices, CBOT & KCBOT AVG. of $0.40/bu or more

  30. 2006 – ~ 2.2 M bushels of SRW ~ 5 M bushels HRW

  31. 2007 – ~ 10.5 M bushels/year ~ 6 M bushels Durum

  32. Durum and Soft Red Winter Wheat Durum wheat is over $21 per bushel today!

  33. Higher Starch Higher Protein Lower Ash Lower Fiber Hulless Barley

  34. What Do We Do With Hulless Barley?

  35. Results: Hulless Versus Hulled Barley Fermentations (No b-Glucanase Added)

  36. Worldwide Wheat • Grain Contamination • Pesticide Residue Thresholds • Insects • Disease • End-use Quality • GMO Wheat

  37. GMO Wheat • 2002-2003 • Roundup Ready - Hard Red Spring Wheat • NAWG claims markets will be lost • June 2004 – Monsanto withdraws application • Segregation

  38. GMO Wheat – Current & Future • Roundup Ready • Monsanto • Approved in US but withdrawn due to industry concerns • Fusarium Head Blight Resistance • Syngenta • Field trials complete, not submitted for approval • Available 2013 ? • Drought? • Grain Quality? • Nitrogen Efficiency?

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