Pathways of future emissions & climate change For the Australian Adaptation Practitioner

1. Pathways of future emissions & climate changeFor the Australian Adaptation Practitioner   Malte Meinshausen, 26th June 2012The University of Melbourne & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Thanks to UrsBeyerle, T. Corti, J. Arblaster, D. Karoly, J. Rogelj, K. Frieler, L. Warzawski.

2. R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen

3. International Emission Targets for Australia:5% 2020 Pledge seems slow start for reaching 2050. High 2020 Pledge of -25% below 2000 – roughly in line with -80% by 2050 Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data.

4. Australia’s domestic mitigation important.Australia’s coal associated with big emissions overseas. CO2 Emissions due to the overseas burning of coal from a single new Australian coal mine (1.31 GtCO2 over its 30 year lifetime; Wandoan XSTRATA, Queensland) Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data. For Wandoan case, see more information at: http://www.envlaw.com.au/wandoan.html

5. R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen

7. Indicative 2020 Target for global emissions: 44 ±2GtCO2eq, if we want to stay below 2°C.

8. The new “SRES” scenarios for climate model intercomparisons: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Cf. Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

9. See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

10. Global Peaking of Emissions before 2020 essential. See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

11. See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

12. “Adaptation challenge” due to negative emission necessity: How can large biomass & CCS implementation take place without endangering food production, ecosystems etc? See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

13. International goal: Keeping warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (with likely chance). In the long-term, this target is slightly more stringent than 450ppm CO2eq. International UNFCCC language on 2C target: “[…] reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC above preindustrial levels […]” Cancún Agreements (2010), Decision 1/CP.16, para I.4 “Noting with grave concern the significant gapbetween […] pledges […] and […] pathwaysconsistentwithhaving a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC or 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels” Durban Platform (2011), Decision 1/CP.17, preamble

14. Context: +2°C warming last time maybe 3 to 5 Million years ago. Upper inlet: Hansen et al. PNAS, submitted, Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature

15. Morice et al. JGR, 2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187

16. Multi-model historical experiments with climate models (AOGCMs and ESMs) in the latest/ongoing intercomparison project “CMIP5”: Unprecedented amounts of data. Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

17. Following the highest future emission scenario: Crossing global warming of +2°C by 2040, +5°C by 2100... Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

18. ... and +12°C by 2200 ?! Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

19. Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

20. RCP4.5 heading for +2.5 to +3°C in long-term. Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

21. RCP3-PD/2.6 staying below 2°C with likely chance. Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

22. Regional Change of precipitation & temperature important for impacts & adaptation -> high correlation with global-mean temperatures. Fig. 3 in Frieler, Meinshausen et al. 2012, J. Clim, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1

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24. Background Slides For discussion.

25. Trend preserving bias correction Daily temperatures for July, Amazon region RCP8.5 Bias corrected Original data from HadGEM2 Source: Frieler et al. ISI-MIP, 2012

27. Meinshausen et al. 2009, Nature, Fig 3

28. (Australia Government Figure with red added by Meinshausen 2011, Wandoan Court Case Material)