Eastern Great Basin September - December, 2014 Fire Potential Outlook

1. Eastern Great Basin September - December, 2014Fire Potential Outlook Shelby Law / Ramona Beyuka EGBCC Predictive Services Meteorologist

2. Contents • Current Fire Danger • Observed Fire Occurrence/Fire Behavior • September Weather/Fire Potential Forecast • October Weather/Fire Potential Forecast • November/December Fire Potential Forecast

3. Current Fire Danger

4. Recent Weather Trend • Temperatures have been below normal nearly region wide with the coolest areas being eastern Idaho, western Wyoming and northwestern Utah, reporting average maximum temperatures as much as 8 degrees below normal. • Precipitation was above normal nearly region wide due to frequent trough passages and resultant southerly flow producing strong surges of monsoonal moisture and widespread precipitation throughout the month. • A large area encompassing southern and eastern Idaho, northern Utah and western Wyoming received over 400 percent of the normal precipitation for August. Only the western Payette N.F. received less than 100 percent of average. • Drought conditions have improved slightly over the past month across the state of Utah, however most of the state remains in moderate drought with severe drought lingering across northwest Utah. Severe drought persists along the Snake River Plain in Idaho with a bull’s-eye of extreme drought over south central Idaho and moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions are present elsewhere in the state.

5. Recent Weather Trend Temperature Departure from Average Precipitation Percent of Average 8/01/2014 - 8/29/2014

6. Drought Monitor and Outlook Drought Monitor Drought Outlook

7. Energy Release Component Western ID Mtns Eastern Idaho Mtns Northeast UT Southwest UT

8. Fuel Moisture - Sagebrush Southwest Idaho Eastern Idaho Mtns Western Wyoming South Central Utah

9. Fuel Moisture – 1000-hr Western Idaho Mtns Southern Utah Mtns

10. Fuel Loading – Grasses • The 2014 grass crop is below normal across much of southwestern Idaho, with only the Orchard site reporting total loading amounts above previous years values.

11. Observed Fire Occurrence • YTD fire occurrence has been above normal, however acres burned is much below normal due to the recent cool and wet weather.

12. September Climate Outlooks

13. September Fire Potential Outlook • Large fire potential is expected to be normal to below normal through the month of September. • Generally dry conditions may persist through much of the month allowing fine fuels a chance to dry enough to carry fire, but sagebrush LFM values have been on the rise across much of the region and will likely not support large fire growth. • If fuels have a chance to dry during the first half of the month, while the sun is still strong, this September may be a good month for fall burning as the wildfire potential will be quite low.

14. Long Term Climate Outlooks

15. October Fire Potential Outlook • Fire potential is expected to be normal across all of the Eastern Great Basin during the month of October. • Cooler air, accompanied by rain producing storm systems anticipated during the month of October will decrease large fire potential and may limit certain types of prescribed fire.

16. Nov/Dec Fire Potential Outlook • Large fire potential should be normal during November and December, which for the time of year is quite low.

17. The End Send Questions/Comments To Shelby Law, EGBCC slaw@blm.gov