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Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area:

Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area: Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to environmental stressors (e.g. climate change). Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions. Haiganoush K Preisler Statistical Scientist

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Ecosystem Function and Health Program Problem Area:

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  1. Ecosystem Function and Health Program • Problem Area: • Quantify and predict ecosystem responses to environmental stressors (e.g. climate change). • Develop statistical models to help managers make informed and defensible predictions. Haiganoush K Preisler Statistical Scientist PSW Research Station

  2. Understanding the influence of climate on • mountain pine beetle outbreaks in: • Lodgepole pine forests • Whitebark pine forests • 2. wildland fire occurrence • and size.

  3. How does climate influence beetle outbreaks? USFS aerial detection surveys Beetle pressure Remaining live trees Drought stress Adaptive seasonality Winter mortality Outbreaks Probability of an outbreak Outbreak severity

  4. A mechanistic statistical model Y = 1 if Stress on tree > Tree tolerance Y = 0 otherwise Stress = number of attacking beetles ~ g1(birth rate) + g2(btp) + g3(live trees) S= f1( temp, drought) + f2(btp) + f3(live trees) T = f4(drought) f ( ) ~ smooth functions to be estimated from data

  5. Winter Mortality Adaptive Seasonality Drought Stress

  6. Study location (LPP study) Contribution of beetle pressure vs. weather Washington Oregon beetle pressure most important weather important during initiation, collapse

  7. Influence of Climate on Wildland Fire Occurrence and Size

  8. Climate Variable – Fire Weather Index (FWI) Other Variables – Distance to road; Forest vs Ag land

  9. Predicted Probability of a large fire per 10km2

  10. Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change Westerling et al 2011 Climatic Change

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