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An Overview of Social Exclusion in South East Europe

An Overview of Social Exclusion in South East Europe. Dr. Paul Stubbs, the Institute of Economics, Zagreb South East Europe Forum: Faces of Social Exclusion, Zagreb 26-27 November 2008. Aims.

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An Overview of Social Exclusion in South East Europe

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  1. An Overview of Social Exclusion in South East Europe Dr. Paul Stubbs, the Institute of Economics, Zagreb South East Europe Forum: Faces of Social Exclusion, Zagreb 26-27 November 2008

  2. Aims • To provide a regional overview of key patterns and trends in social exclusion and identify groups facing exclusion • To explore some of the broad causal relationships resulting in social exclusion • To outline the main challenges in tackling poverty and social exclusion • To offer a general assessment of potential target issues for support

  3. Background Studies for European Commission • JIM Process for Candidate Countries and Independent SPSI reports: Croatia; former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • 2008 SPSI reports on Pre-Candidate Countries: Albania; Bosnia-Herzegovina; Montenegro; Serbia; Kosovo under UNSC 1244; Synthesis Report on W. Balkans Studies for UNICEF, UNDP, DFID, SCF and others

  4. SPSI Studies Chapter 1: Economic, Financial and Demographic Background Chapter 2: The Social Protection System Chapter 3: Poverty and Social Exclusion Chapter 4: Pensions System Chapter 5: Health and Long-Term Care Systems Chapter 6: Conclusions and Key Challenges

  5. Report Logic EDUCATION AND LABOUR MARKET CONTEXT ECONOMIC, FISCAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT INPUTS OUTCOMES Social Protection system • INSTITUTIONS • POLICIES • STRATEGIES • POVERTY • SOCIAL EXCLUSION • VULNERABILITY • RISK Pensions system Health and long-term care systems SOCIAL INDICATORS EU 2006 SPSI OBJECTIVES HISTORICAL LEGACIES & STRENGTHS

  6. Patterns and trends I • Sustained economic growth (2000-2006 1.7% - 5.3% per annum) has: • reduced absolute/survey poverty rates somewhat (n.b. still high except Croatia and Serbia) but has: • had little impact on economic activity rates (U & l/tU high and rising in Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia)

  7. Patterns and trends II • Insurance-based welfare has been undermined by a multi-dimensional contributions crisis (demographic ageing; high dependency ratios; grey economy; low activity rates; out migration; minimum declared wages; regressive nature of remittances)

  8. Patterns and trends III • Increasing inequalities in danger of becoming entrenched: sector of informal, unstable & precarious work groups w/limited access to services institutionalised and stigmatised pop.s

  9. Groups at risk • Multi-dimensionality and inter-sectionality of exclusion (n.b. research and data gaps) • ‘At risk’: (Long-term) Unemployed; Older people; Large families; Women; Children and youth; Low education levels; RDPs; Minorities (esp. Roma but also national minorities and ‘small minorities’); People with Disabilities; People with long-term health issues • Spatial dimension: Arc of exclusion; Rural – Urban; Zones of exclusion • ‘New’ survival strategies eroding long-term capabilities?

  10. Causes • Multiple shocks: War/conflicts; Structural transition; Deindustrialisation; Erosion of social capital/solidarities; ‘Captured’ social policies • Distortions caused by ‘locked in’ expenditures (tertiary health care; residential care) and new (informal) marketization • Legacy of category-based (not needs-based) social protection • Stigma, discrimination and over-professionalised approaches • Political will – Fiscal space – Technical capacities

  11. Key Challenges • Too many strategic documents – too little implementation: 1 SI strategy/1 lead agency/1 M&E framework/1 Planning process • Problems of horizontal and vertical co-ordination combine with deficits of access and voice/ participation • Balance of universal – categorical – insurance – means-tested benefits and services hard to achieve • Appropriate scales not clear (not just centralised vs decentralised) • Sustainable support for diverse providers (with quality standards) not fully in place • Measures still more ‘passive’ than ‘active’ • Co-ordination amongst development partners not yet optimal (and lessons from valuable ‘pilots’ not mainstreamed)

  12. Targeted support priorities I • Inclusive labour markets (disability; age; gender) and improved returns to education (life-long learning; skills; transitioning e.g school to work) • Holistic and integrated child and family policies (early childhood interventions; universal child benefits; family support services) • Deinstitutionalisation and minimum basket of community-based services • Social pensions within ‘active ageing’ policies • Anti-discrimination laws and practices • Area-based approaches/Action zones

  13. Targeted support priorities II • Support for evidence-based policy making – Strategic Goals; Benchmarks; Indicators; M&E; Impact Assessment (including all stakeholders) • Enhanced ‘social’ dimension of IPA programming • Regional cooperation (modelling OMC-JIM; Peer review/peer learning; common concerns; RCC as bridge to EU/global frameworks?)

  14. Thank-you for your attention SPSI Studies: http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/spsi/enlargement_en.htm#studies pstubbs@eizg.hr

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