International Politics: Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation

1. International Politics: Dynamics of Conflict and Cooperation Objectives of the class, Two goals: First: give students an overview of basic concepts and themes that are used in the political analysis of International relations and of their recent theoretical developments. Among those concepts: actor, sub-actor and system in International relations, decision-making bargaining, escalation and crisis, deterrence and stability. The course also intends to cover issues in International cooperation such as alliances and coalitions, collective goods, and international institutions.

2. International Systems Second, the course wants to provide epistemological and methodological foundations for the use of these concepts in a rigorous way. In order to that the course will insist on the closeness of economic and political approaches in the use of rational choice analysis and game theory particularly in their dynamic and evolutionary aspects. The importance of productive processes and of basic demographic and resource bases for the understanding of international politics will also be emphasized.

3. Fundamental questions • The political analysis of international relations can be subsumed in two basic questions: • Why the present international power structure • How will it evolve? • The course will try to answer by emphasizing • Fundamentals: Resources, Demographics, Ecological Conditions, Technology, Health Factors: The "Diamond" perspective • Strategic aspects of political systems and behavior of political agents, Institutions

4. Example: The Mongol Empire

5. World Configuration

6. Epistemology and Methodology • Epistemological and Methodological Considerations • Fundamental question: What is politics? • Different epistemological and methodological approaches will give different answers. • I will use here a scientific (Popperian) epistemology characterized by what is called methodological individualism and the rational choice perspective • This perspective gives a unique answer here: namely Politics is the solution to collective action problems (Taylor) • This approach has two advantages:

7. Dynamics of conflict and cooperation • It gives rigorous and unambiguous definitions of concepts whereas a lot of concepts used by social scientists are fuzzy • It clearly links politics with economics and other scientific disciplines such as biology, anthropology, archeology, and evolutionary psychology. Politics under different evolutionary settings which links up with a tradition started in the 19th century: e.g. the Marx –Engels theory of the state

8. Dynamics of conflict and cooperation What is the scientific method? It is according to Popper: A Hypothetic-Deductive Method which includes at least 4 steps • Definition of a paradigm (units of analysis) • Definition of basic assumptions and hypotheses • Logical conclusions from these assumptions • Empirical testing of these conclusions through rigorous methods independent from the assumptions

9. Dynamics of conflict and cooperation Basic explanatory mechanisms in the social sciences • Purelycausal approaches • Normative approaches: Assume the existence of norms • Approaches based on the motivations of actors or agents: they imply actors act strategically or instrumentally and not for other reasons!! • Rational choice approaches: do not exclude norms! < Cognitive approaches

10. Rational choice approaches: Decomposition of preferences and decisions: present, future, uncertainty Rationality means transitivity if A>B and B>C then A>C. Rationality is also represented by the standard expected utility model: Suppose a transitive preference or utility order, this order can be represented by a function U(x,y,z,...). This function can then be associated with a gamble. Here U(x) takes only the values W (win), ST (Status quo) and L (lose). We have the order here of W>ST>L. The gamble or risk aspect is associated with a probability scheme for different events. gamble sure - thing act probability lose L ST p win W ST 1 - p Gamble preferred to sure thing if EU (gble)> U(ST),EU (gble) = U(W)(1-p) + U (L) p

11. Dynamic Aspects and Risk Preference U(C’(x))=[U(B(x)p(x)+U(A(x)(1-p(x))] is always preferred to the sure thing value C The sure thing realization U(C(x)) is always preferred to the (chancy) prospect U(C’(x))=[U(B(x)p(x)+U(A(x)(1-p(x))] The interval T – C(x) is the amount of gain in terms of x an individual is prepared to forgo for not taking the risk linked to the chancy prospect Dynamic aspects can be included via a discount rate: pure time preference

12. Dynamic aspects

13. EVENT SEARCH FOR SIMILAR EVENT IN PAST Use matches to past to decide course of actions TAKE ACTION Did action yield desired outcome NO YES PAST EVENTS Modify event base to avoid future match Reinforce matched event Cognitive approaches: Example of a scheme Nowsuch approaches have evolved into agent based modeling or morphed with rational choiceapproaches

14. Agent Based Modeling Symmetric indirectly ruled state with a hierarchy depth of n Symmetric directly ruled state with no depth

15. Rational Choice Shows The Problematic Aspect of Solving Collective Action Problems and Social Choice and thus of the Linkage Domestic Foreign Policy • Two theoretical approaches especially in view of information problems • Condorcet-Arrow paradox and theorem • The Theory of collective goods • International dynamics are linked to such questions

16. Social Choice: Condorcet Arrow • Social Choice and Arrow’s Theorem: • 3 Voters: x y z • 3 Issues: A BC

17. The Condorcet Arrow Paradox • Preferences: • x: A > B > C • y: C > A > B • z: B > C > A • Majority Vote: A > B, B > C, but C >A

18. A B C A C B P r e f e r e n c e A B C A B C A B C Arrow Paradox continued: Single peakedness

19. Collective Good Theory • Collective goods as opposed to private goods are problematic with respect to exclusion and rivalry • They are nevertheless essential for the working of society • They originate with productive processes and population concentrations that are higher: Production security dilemma

20. Collective good theory continued Tax solution Property rights solution

21. Collective good theory leads to a theory of interest groups • Free Rider Problem and Selective incentives • Asymmetry of interest is important • Collective goods are usually supplied by small groups • Collective goods lead to the principal agent problem

22. Politics, Conflict and Cooperation • What is politics? • If politics consist in solving collective action problems, (for a collective good) then they consist in organizing for cooperation but also for conflict • Politics start to emerge when traditional methods of conflict resolution fail: avoidance, skirmishes, raids • They require a tax base which can only be realized through a surplus

23. Theories • Classical: Hume, Kant, Cobden • Whereas classical approaches are focusing on the origins and nature of structures the newer theories take structure for granted: This is not so see the works of Peter Sahlins and , Graham Robb • More recent: Neo-realism, Neo-liberal institutionalism, Information based conceptions such as epistemic communities. • Constructivism

24. Theories of international relations • The evolution of theories is closely linked to the structural aspect of state systems • Historically we notice a succession of decentralized state systems followed by the creation of empires • This evolution was broken in Western Europe around the year 1000 and despite attempts an empire could not be recreated • Elsewhere the standard evolution continued (China, the Ottoman Empire,..) • By the 18th Century the European specificity became clear to analysts • By the 19th Century European states became consolidated