INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE RELATED POLICIES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

1. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE RELATED POLICIES IN THEAGRICULTURAL SECTOR Strategy for developing an integrated assessment framework.Experience from East Africa ByCornelius KazooraDirector Sustainable Development CentreMakerere University Campuse-mail: sdc@imul.com

2. Structure of Presentation • List of some case studies • Lessons and issues from case studies • Implications for developing and /or improving integrated assessments • Specific strategies for integrated assessment • Emerging opportunities in support of integrated assessments

3. Approach used(1) • Reviewed some assessments and related studies that have been made, specifically in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania • Identified the strategies that were used in the assessment

4. Approach used (2) • Based on recommendations and emerging issues from those assessments, drew implications for improvement of strategies for integrated assessments

5. Some case studies(1) Country Study Sector Tools 1. Tanzania Integrated Forestry - - Cost - - benefit assessment of analysis trade - - Economic liberalization valuation and trade - - Qualitative related policies approaches Impact of - - Cross agricultural Agriculture 2. Kenya sectional trade and household related policy survey data, reforms on 1982, 1992, food security 1997 (KIPPRA)

6. Some case studies(2) Country Country Study Study Sector Sector Tools Tools 3. Uganda 3. Uganda Environmental Environmental Fisheries Fisheries - - Environmental Environmental impacts of trade impacts of trade audits audits liberalization liberalization - - Pollution Pollution and policies for and policies for measurement in measurement in sustainable sustainable fish & leather, fish & leather, management of management of factories, and factories, and natural resources natural resources flower farms flower farms (EPRC ) ) ) )

7. Some case studies(3) Country Country Study Study Sector Sector Tools Tools 4. Kenya 4. Kenya A system for A system for Agriculture Agriculture - - Modeling Modeling integrated integrated Wildlife Wildlife Tanzania Tanzania - - Field based Field based management and management and analysis analysis assessment of East assessment of East &interviews &interviews African pastoral African pastoral - - GIS GIS lands lands analysis analysis ILRI, Nairobi University , Colorado State university, National Resource Ecology Laboratory

8. Some case studies(4) Country Country Study Study Sector Sector Tools Tools 5. Uganda 5. Uganda The impact on The impact on Agriculture Agriculture - - CGE CGE Uganda of Uganda of model model Agricultural Agricultural trade trade liberalization, liberalization, Adam Blake, Andrew Mckay and Oliver Morrissey 2001

9. Some case studies(5) Country Study Sector Tools 6. Uganda Ugandan trade policy Agriculture - - Trend Analysis and export performance in the 1990s . Morrissey & Nichodemas Rudaheramua International model for IMPACT 7. Kenya, Food Policy Analysis of agricultural Tanzania security model Uganda &Nutrition Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description Mark W, Rosegrant , , Siet Meijer &Sarah. Acline (2002) IFPRI

10. Some case studies(6) Country Country Study Study Sector Sector Tools Tools 8. SSA, 8. SSA, Poverty Reduction Poverty Reduction Agriculture Agriculture Review Review including including and Agricultural and Agricultural of of Uganda, Uganda, Trade in Sub Trade in Sub - - Literature Literature Kenya& Kenya& Saharan Africa Saharan Africa Tanzania Tanzania USAID, 2004

11. Emerging challenges& needs (1) • How to choose data and methodologies that help establish causal links between trade-related policies and impacts on biodiversity (Policy Briefs-Trade&Biodiversity, IUCN 2004) • How to discern the impact from other economic factors that would affect agricultural markets. For example, Oliver Morrissey and Nichodemus Rudaheramua established that beyond trade liberalisation, there is need to consider infrastructure and institutional support

12. Emerging challenges& needs (2) • How to move beyond site specific evidence and from conceptual to empirical analysis (IUCN 2004). In fact, USAID (2004) also proposed: “Help SSA develop an empiricalbasis to support trade policy decisions regarding regional and global markets” • How to capture distributional gains in agriculture (i.e urban vs rural, and by region. Adam Blake, Andrew Mackay and Olives Morrissey 2001)

13. Emerging challenges& needs (3) • How to place the recommendations from assessment into an institutional home for their implementation. For example, the assessment team in Tanzania recommended a Task Force for the purpose. In Uganda, the Ministry of Tourism, Trade and Industry has formed an Inter-institutional Trade Committee( IITC) of 22 government ministries and statutory bodies, 5 private sector umbrella organisations, 5 NGOs&CSOs &2 Academia to oversee policy formulation

14. Emerging challenges& needs (4) • Any assessment of the impact of a policy reform requires a benchmark against which to compare the current values ( ex post) or the simulated values ( ex-ante).[FAO] • Where statistics are not available for two distinct periods in time, a “with and without” approach may be appropriate

15. Emerging challenges& needs (5) • Issues and impacts in trade are cross-sectoral, not necessarily agriculture-specific, hence creating the need to be cautious when recommending policy revisions. Bernard Hoekman&Kym Arderson, 1999[ Developing Country Agriculture &the New Trade Agenda] World Bank

16. Implication from the proceeding evidence • Strategies for integrated assessments have to adopt a phased, but linked approach broken down as follows: - Preparation &planning phase • Assessment phase • Implementation phase • Monitoring phase

17. Phases at which to develop strategies Preparation and Planning phase Assessment Monitoring phase phase Implementation phase

18. Strategies- Planning Phase(1) • Create awareness of the issues to be assessed • Source relevant multi-disciplinary personnel or skills to carry out assessment • Formulate the appropriate conceptual& analytical framework

19. Strategies- Careful Planning for the assessment(2) • Train the team members in the use of the tools • Identify relevant data to feed into the analytical framework • Make a list of stakeholder institutions to be consulted • Make a plan for cost-effective consultative process • Select the organizational arrangement or structure to coordinate the assessment team, and to review the results

20. Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3) • Plan for dissemination, and “housing”of likely recommendations for implementation • Identify the audience to impact upon when assessment is complete • Plan the advocacy tools that will be used for advocacy • Develop communication strategy

21. Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3) • Explore the use of the media and the press to create awareness, and generate interest around the ‘subject’ of assessment • Budget for implementation of above strategies

22. Strategies – Assessment phase • Maintain and support communication and dialogue among assessment team members • Provide technical assistance, if need be, to bring best practices and experiences from elsewhere e.g in quantifying &valuing impacts • Identify data and capacity gaps • Build consensus on major impacts and their indicators

23. Strategies – Implantation phase • Form relevant structure to take recommendations forward • Provide funds for implementation, if need be • Build capacity • Arrange to update and or collect relevant data • Implement the communication &advocacy strategies

24. Strategies – Monitoring phase • Identify new policies to formulate or old ones to fine-tune • Identify new problem areas for integrated assessment