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Characteristics of the agricultural sector in Malawi

Characteristics of the agricultural sector in Malawi. Nina Holmelin CICERO Oslo, 22.09.2011 SoCoCA Project Meeting nina.holmelin@cicero.uio.no. Malawi. Widespread poverty, despite improvements 1998: 65%, 2009: 34% (NSO 2009) Smallholding farmers: 85% of population

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Characteristics of the agricultural sector in Malawi

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  1. Characteristics of the agricultural sector in Malawi Nina Holmelin CICERO Oslo, 22.09.2011 SoCoCA Project Meeting nina.holmelin@cicero.uio.no

  2. Malawi Widespread poverty, despite improvements 1998: 65%, 2009: 34% (NSO 2009) Smallholding farmers: 85% of population Small landholdings (<0.8 ha), low yields Maize, cassava, groundnuts, legumes Rainfed, little external inputs, no/small farm animals Estate sector (few, but large landholdings) High sensitivity to crop failure due to multiple underlying vulnerabilities High dependency on agriculture Poverty, food insecurity, unreliable markets Climate change has great implications for food security and poverty.  Important to study socioeconomic consequences of downscaled climate projections. (Other drivers of change: Input subsidy programs, development assistance, price inflation) Mapof Malawi. Source: Nations Online Project 2008

  3. Modelling the impacts of climate change: Empirical basis, relevant assumptions • CGE model for Malawi, agricultural sector. • Adjust model assumptions to the specific conditions in Malawi • Plausible interpretations of model output • Integrate knowledge across disciplines and scales: • Bottom-up and top-down • Qualitative and quantitative • Empirical diversity and model assumptions

  4. National maizeproduction • Low and variable yields: around 1 t/ha • Large yield gap: Actual yields are much lower than potential yields • Low soil fertility: continuous cropping, little inputs • Intercropping • Seeds: local varieties, high yielding varieties (hybrids) • Fertilizers: require credit, risky investments • Pests, insect attacks, post-harvest losses • Time of harvest: Harvest green crops • Seasonal distribution of rain

  5. Specific features • High transaction costs, unreliable markets • Self-sufficiency: People grow maize • Subsistence production for food security (access and stability of food supply) • Cultural expectation • Multiple constraints: • Land, labour, credit, soil depletion. • Poverty: Market demand ≠ need for food • Short time horizon, immediate needs: Ganyu

  6. Specific features cont. • Figure: Food insecurity prevalence • Net food consumers: (Nyirongo et al. 2001) • 60% buy, 15% sell maize • 94% store their harvested maize for food • Safety first, risk aversion: Local varieties, less hybrid or high yielding maize.

  7. Short-term copingstrategiesvssustainableadaptation • Suboptimal short-term strategies: • Casual work (ganyu), sell assets/livestock, harvest green crops, eat less, eat ‘famine foods’ etc. • How enable more sustainable solutions, build adaptive capacity? • Poverty reduction, food security: increase productivity • Input Subsidy Programs? • Irrigation – but soil salinity problems • Conservation agriculture, crop diversification • Build buffers, reduce vulnerability: Capacity to overcome weather and market shocks without sacrificing investments in agriculture

  8. Summing up • Interdisciplinarity, top-down and bottom-up approaches • Adjust model assumptions and interpretations • National averages do not account for local variations: Abundance and hunger simultaneously • Malawi: Market imperfections, multiple constraints, seasonality, food insecurity: Priorities and responses differ from standard assumptions • Poverty reduction and improved food security are prerequisites for strengthening of adaptive capacity, and for any prospects of sustainable development.

  9. References • Nations Online Project 2008. Politicalmapof Malawi. Available at: http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/malawi_map.htm • [accessed 19.09.2011] • NSO 2009. WelfareMonitoring Survey 2009. National Statistical Office of Malawi, AgricultureStatisticsDivision. Available at: http://www.nso.malawi.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48%3Awelfare-monitoring-survey-wms-2009&catid=5&Itemid=23 • [accessed 19.09.2011] • Nyirongo, C. C., Gondwe, H. C. Y., Msiska, F. B. M., Mdyetseni, H. A. J. & Kamanga, F. M. C. E. 2001. 2000-01 Targeted Inputs Programme(TIP) Evaluation: Module 2 Part 1. A QuantitativeStudyofMarkets and Livelihood Security in Rural Malawi. Household Survey Report. Submittedto: The Department for International Development (DFID).

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