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Trends in Agricultural Trade

Trends in Agricultural Trade. Peter S Liapis Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD. Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010. Agricultural Exports (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU. Excludes Intra EU. Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU.

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Trends in Agricultural Trade

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  1. Trends in Agricultural Trade Peter S Liapis Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010

  2. Agricultural Exports (1995-2008) Includes Intra EU Excludes Intra EU

  3. Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008) Includes Intra EU Excludes Intra EU

  4. Agriculture share of total merchandise trade

  5. Agricultural exports by Income Group

  6. Share of Agricultural Exports by Income Group

  7. Agricultural trade is increasingly South-South

  8. Share of North-North trade is diminishing

  9. What Agricultural Products are Being Exported?

  10. Shareof Agricultural Exports by Type

  11. 06-08 95-97 51.0 46.6 23.9 22.6 22.0 19.6 High income OECD 7.4 6.8 60.6 59.2 21.1 20.4 High income Non OECD 14.5 13.3 5.7 5.2 36.3 34.1 29.7 28.4 22.2 21.1 Upper middle income 15.1 13.0 30.1 30.1 29.0 28.1 25.3 22.5 17.6 17.3 Lower middle income 68.3 56.2 16.4 16.1 15.3 11.3 10.1 6.4 Low income Income Level and Share of Agricultural Exports Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products 06-08 06-08 95-97 95-97 06-08 95-97

  12. 44.7 36.9 24.7 23.6 21.9 17.4 16.0 14.8 52.3 50.9 22.1 19.3 18.3 16.7 10.3 10.1 45.9 44.7 25.2 22.9 22.4 21.7 10.0 7.3 35.4 34.6 33.4 31.2 28.1 27.9 5.5 3.9 36.2 33.8 32.7 31.7 29.6 29.0 4.4 2.6 Income Level and Share of Agricultural Imports Process products Semi-Process products Horticultural products Bulk products 06-08 06-08 06-08 95-97 95-97 95-97 06-08 95-97 High income OECD High income Non OECD Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

  13. Top Agricultural Exporters 2008 1995

  14. Top Agricultural Importers 1995 2008

  15. Agricultural Imports share of GDP Average 1995-97 Average 2006-08

  16. Key macroeconomic assumptions 2009 global economic recession 2010 global economic recovery 2% annual inflation in OECD; higher in BRICs stronger US dollar stable policy regime

  17. Main outlook messages • Agriculture more resilient to global economic crisis • Real prices to remain at or above 1997-2006 levels • Production increases in the 10 to 40% range • Developing countries driving demand and export growth • Expansion of biofuels – largely driven by mandates

  18. Real prices at or above historical levels % change relative to 1997-2006 average

  19. Steady growth of global production Production Growth from 2006-08 average to 2018 Growth realised until 2008 Growth from 2008 to 2018

  20. Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018 Output Growth is largest in non-OECD area

  21. Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018 Demand growth is largest in non-OECD area

  22. Outlook for dairy products consumption

  23. Export growth in developing countries Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018

  24. Food remains the main use for wheat … + 34 Mt

  25. …while feed and fuel push coarse grain demand up + 50 Mt

  26. Biodiesel increasingly important demand driver for vegetable oil + 90 Mt

  27. Summing Up Future Prospects… • Global demand has been strong, with … higher growth outside the OECD area, and … for higher value food and non-food products. • Increased price volatility is expected. • The impact of the economic crisis is unclear, … as are future policy directions.

  28. Policy responses to Food Security Concerns • Rely on objective information & analysis • Provide humanitarian aid and short-term support to increase output in developing countries • Keep import and export markets open; conclude ambitious DDA agreement • Review/reform biofuel support policies • Monitor/address balance of payments situation

  29. Medium & long term policy responses… • Improve the purchasing power of the poor in developing countries – economy wide growth is needed to contribute to poverty reduction • Improve the productivity of global agriculture, particularly in developing countries - education, infrastructure, research and development, technology transfer and innovation are essential

  30. Conclusion • Short term measures are vital to address food security today, but medium & long term actions are also needed • More open markets are necessary, but insufficient • An increased, long term, sustained commitment to development, both within and outside agriculture, is essential

  31. Conclusion • The fundamental factor is – supply response • Price transmission to local markets • Technological progress • Need to address climate change/water availability/sustainability • Food affordability (poverty reduction) is the key food security issue

  32. Thank You Trade and Agriculture Directorate Visit our website: www.oecd.org/agriculture Contact us: Pete.liapis@oecd.org

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