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Assessing the Potential Risk of Emerald Ash Borer Establishment and Spread using GIS

Assessing the Potential Risk of Emerald Ash Borer Establishment and Spread using GIS. William D. Ayersman Michael P. Strager West Virginia University. Overview. Background on EAB in North America Mapping risk factors Modeling probability of spread Desired outcomes.

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Assessing the Potential Risk of Emerald Ash Borer Establishment and Spread using GIS

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  1. Assessing the Potential Risk of Emerald Ash Borer Establishment and Spread using GIS William D. Ayersman Michael P. Strager West Virginia University

  2. Overview • Background on EAB in North America • Mapping risk factors • Modeling probability of spread • Desired outcomes

  3. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) • Native to Asia • First detected in Detroit, Michigan (2002) • Highly destructive to native ash species

  4. Ash species in North America • Importance in the ecosystem • Urban and developed areas • 25 million+ trees affected to date • High removal and replacement costs in the billions $$ • Loss of trees leads to reduced property values

  5. Ash Tree and EAB populations

  6. Cooperative EAB project APHISJan 2009

  7. Project: EAB in the mid-Atlantic region • EAB is not yet fully established in the study region • Opportunity to focus monitoring and outreach Quarantined Counties

  8. Mapping risk factors • Focused on mapping anthropogenic factors related to introduction/spread of EAB: • Movement of trees (nursery stock) • Movement of wood and wood products

  9. Risk factors: Hardwood firewood • Parks and picnic areas • Public and private campgrounds • Vacation homes • Retail sales of firewood EAB infested firewood, Troy Kimoto, CFIA

  10. Mapping firewood usage • Campgrounds

  11. Risk factors: Sawmills • Timber industry, particularly sawmills • Wood haulers WV sawmill, Appalachian Hardwood Center photo

  12. Mapping sawmills

  13. Risk factors: Nurseries • Ash species are valuable nursery crop • Estimated 2 million ash trees / year • Spread to Maryland was through nursery stock WV Division of Forestry tree nursery

  14. Mapping nurseries • Nurseries • Home and garden suppliers

  15. Other factors • Population centers • New home construction • Interstate commerce • Shipping

  16. Data refinements • Campgrounds • Size, type of facility • Origin of visitors • Nurseries, sawmills • Size of facility • Materials handled • Source of materials

  17. Maximum entropy approach • A Bayesian technique • Useful for making predictions from incomplete information – presence only • Robust to colinearity between explanatory variables • Stable distribution with limited training data • Evaluates relative variable importance

  18. Desired outcomes • Target monitoring • Public outreach and education

  19. Benefits / technology transfer This project will assist federal and state agencies by • Mapping and modeling locations with high potential for insect introductions through the movements of wood and wood-based materials. • Using a GIS-based approach, a risk prioritization framework is being developed to assess and rank various mapped risk factors for EAB introduction and spread. • Data will be useful for other pests

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