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WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS

WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS. RCOF concept and Outcomes. J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr. Geneva – WMO Headquarter 05-07 April 2011. Outline. RCOFs process Main Objectives RCOFs concept Preforum Forum Dissemination Update verification

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WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS

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  1. WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS RCOF concept and Outcomes J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr Geneva – WMO Headquarter 05-07 April 2011

  2. Outline • RCOFs process • Main Objectives • RCOFs concept • Preforum • Forum • Dissemination • Update • verification • RCOFs outcomes • Capacity Building • National Forecasts • Consensus discussion WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  3. Targeted framework GPCs Monitoring & Forecast (Global Level) RCC (Regional Level) MEDIA Regional Users International Partners Regional Partners National Partners Users (National) Water ressources Agriculture Energy Health … National Organisation & NGO NMHSs (National Level) MWG MEDIA WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  4. The RCOFs Processes • Main Objectives • To reduce the socio-economic vulnerabilty of countries to the impacts of Climate events, • To strengthen the capacity of NMHS and their users in the domain of Long Range Forecasts and their use, • To provide usefull and comprehensible products to the benefit of end-users (from making decision domain, National Authorities, Agriculture, hydrology, health domain, …). WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  5. RCOF concept • Preforum • Presentation of key points for the next (rainy) season, • Preparation of national statistical forecasts, • Capacity building activity to the benefit of NMHS and users in relationship with the general topics of Fora • Sharing of experience in creating new products or improving exixting material, • Forum • Presentation of the last informations on the climate system and its evolution, • Elaboration of consensus and regional products for the next rainy season, • Presentation and discussion about specific topics (Agriculture, Climate forecasting, Hydrology, Climate and Health, Communication, …). • Discussion on expected, desirable and/or realistic developpments, WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  6. RCOF concept • Dissemination • Dissemination of products by the NMHS, including national adaptation of regional products. • Interpretation to the benefit of users through Multidisciplinary Working Group (impacts of the forecast on the targetted domain). • Communication • Media involvment (Press release, TV, … ) • Update of the forecasts (Monthly base) • Continuous adaptation of the forecasts to the last available information on the climate system and its evolutions (notably update of the SST). • Adaptation of the users to the updated forecast (?) • Evaluation of Forecasts • Quality of the forecasts (technical evaluation) and use of the Forecast. • Remark : the relevant Lead-time is a crucial input for the organisation of the RCOFs WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  7. RCOF components • Capacity Building • To develop regional and national capacities in Seasonal Forecasting • Learning tools and methods • Improving Climate Knowledge • Learning user liaison • National Forecasts • To help in tailoring/adapting the National Forecasts with respect of the global and regional climate context • Using statistical methods (e.g. using Observed SSTs) • Using MOS methods (e.g. using forecasted Large Scale Conditions) • Using tailoring methods (e.g. river flow, Malaria risk, … ) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  8. RCOF components • Consensus process • To develop a consensus view of expected seasonal anomalies • Across various forecast products • Across various geographical regions and national boundaries • To issue a consensus product (at regional scale) • Using wholly objective methods (e.g. MME) • Using objective-subjective mix (e.g. NCEP-CPC outlook over USA, RCOF consensus processes, … ) • Using wholly subjective methods (e.g. knowledge of climatology, current conditions and expert judgement) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  9. A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) Euro-Sip Partners + IRI e.g. African Desk 18 countries GPCs Forecasts (« large scales » and SSTs ) NMHSs National Forecasts + Downscaling Other Forecasts Consensus Discussion Regional Forecast Multi-disciplinary Working Groups (MWG) MWG Users (National & Regional) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  10. SST Evolutions : Coupled models, spread of the ensembles and their consistency SST Scores from GPCs or like-GPCs (SVS) MME compositions (expert assessment ?) Corrections of SST based national forecasts Large Scale circulation and expected impacts : GCMs, spread of the ensembles and their consistency Parameters scores from GPCs or like-GPCs MME compositions (expertise ?) Consistency with national forecasts Regional and National Climate knowledge National forecast : SST based Downscaling based (MOS) Tailoring based (MOS) A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  11. SST Evolutions : A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  12. Large Scale Circulation and its impacts : A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  13. 9 GPC ensemble-mean precip forecasts JJA 2010 ECMWF Exeter Washington Coupled ocean-atmosphere models Tokyo Beijing Melbourne Moscow Montreal Seoul 2-tier (un-coupled) models WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  14. National forecast : A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  15. Relevant operationnal mechanism : Process and convey climate information within the 3-level structure mostly to the benefit of the national level Climate and user oriented information Strengthenning capacities at the regional and national level Experience and best practises : More than 10 year experience (especially in operation and user liaison) Sustainability demonstrated (depiste some local difficulties) Evaluation in 2008 (accumulation of best practises and guidance on Operations, Linkage with research, User liaison, …) Some quality assessment of the consensus products (including SVS evaluation) User dedicated COF : Hydrology, Health (Malaria – MALOF) Replication of the mechanism to the application domain demonstrated RCOF process and GFCS WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  16. Thank you for attention GPC Toulouse WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr

  17. Consensus discussion : Discussion of the main expected scenarios for the SSTs and the expected impact over the region (including discussion about uncertainties) Starting with a first guess (built on the national country forecasts) and comparing with the GCMs’ consensus Discussion point by point on the number and limits of the different zones and associated probabilities (including consequences of uncertainties in the large scale signal onto the national forecasts) Remarks about discussion : Strong and stimulating discussion Difficulties inherent to the different forecasts and their weights Strong bias in the probabilities (verification by Acmad and IRI - 2008) Downscaling shoud facilitate the discussion Purely electronic discussion possible (SEECOF experience) A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme(Presao-SG) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  18. Unofficial draft GPC consensus: 33 25 30 33 35 35 33 40 35 Beijing Exeter Seoul Some signal for ‘wet’, positioning uncertain Consensus ‘wet’ Model consensus ‘dry’ WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  19. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin • Expertised bulletin : • Global Climate Bulletin (GCB) • Multi disciplinary Expert Team (Mercator, Cerfacs, CNRM, DClim) • Monthly update, • Expected lead-time 1 month for forecasts , edited by the end of the current month (for next 3 month forecasts – note the relationship with expected Lead-Time) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  20. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Global Climate Bulletin n°132 (issued end of May) April 2010 observations JJA 2010 forecasts WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  21. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin CEPMMT Météo-France • Pacifique tropical: poursuite « La Niña » • Atlantique: tropical Nord et septentrional chauds • Bonne cohérence entre les 2 modèles WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  22. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Model response to oceanic forcings (Stream function and Velocity Potential in the high troposphere) OND 2010 forecasts Velocity Potential gives insight into the atmospheric response in terms of Hadley-Walker circulation anomalies while the Stream Function gives complementary insight into the atmospheric response to tropical forcing (especially in terms of teleconnections with mid-latitudes) WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  23. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Météo-France ECMWF Good consistency between MF and ECMWF responses to Pacific and Atlantic Tropical forcings: AR predominant Consistent signal with a warm Tropical North Atlantic WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  24. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  25. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Temperature OND 2010 Rainfall OND 2010 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  26. Consensus discussion : Need of a clear guidance for the different steps followed by the consensus discussion Must be « led » by somebody To be run in a step by step maneer with intermediate and consolidated conclusion Must be schedule with enough time for a full and deep discussion in order to avoid then missinterpretation or ambiguity Draft documents to be prepared prior to the discussion Remarks about discussion : All contradictory advices must be expressed and discussed (important for the ownership of the consensus) Difficulties inherent to the different forecasting products (methods, reference datsset for the anomalies, periods, …) Specific issue for the probabilities and uncertainties assessments Purely electronic discussion possible (SEECOF experience, Niño Update, …) in an efficient way Knowledge about GCMs behaviour and performances crucial for the consensus Conclusion on the consensus processes WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  27. MME Products and Consensus WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  28. MME Products and Consensus WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  29. MME Products and Consensus WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  30. MME Products and Consensus WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  31. MME Products and Consensus WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  32. Bulletin and others Bulletins : • GCB • Web Bulletin (Grand Public) • Monthly Briefing Recording Documentation : • Technical ( modeling, score computation, ....) • Scientific • Popular Wiki : • Collaborative work space for GCB WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

  33. Bulletin and others Bulletins : Monthly Briefing Record WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011

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