Climate Change in Southern Africa – selected impacts, responses and the road to Copenhagen

1. Climate Change in Southern Africa – selected impacts, responses and the road to Copenhagen Dr Emma Archer (www.csir.co.za/nre) & Dr Mark Tadross (www.csag.uct.ac.za)

2. Introduction • Comments - climate change explained and observed • Then look at the projections for Southern Africa; • Thinking around adaptation and response • The road to Copenhagen, and strategies in South Africa and SADC; Nairobi Declaration (May-June 2009) • Chris: climate change implications for the water sector (example of vulnerable sector; others include health, human settlements, disaster management, biodiversity & ecosystem services, agriculture, marine and coastal)

3. The greenhouse effect • Greenhouse gases ~ act like panes of glass in a greenhouse • Allow short wave energy to pass through them • Trap longer-wave heat radiation that is radiated back to the atmosphere from the earth’s surface (changes to atmosphere – radiative forcing)

4. So far – collective picture of a warming world • Global average surface temperature has increased over 20th century by about 0.6 C • Climate change already occurring – e.g. temp raises in parts of SADC • What of the future? IPCC AR4 WG1

5. Southern Africa predictions - temperature ‘All of Africa is likely to warm during this century’ (IPCC WG1, 2007, Ch 11, pg 866) Warming likely > global annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons Drier subtropical regions warming more than moister tropics

6. Significant hydrological changes June-July-August December-January-February IPCC AR4 WG1, Christensen et al Based on regional studies assessed in IPCC Chapter 11 Precip increase in > 90% of simulations Precip increase in > 66% simulations Precip decrease in > 66% of simulations Precip decrease in > 90% of simulations Precip decrease likely Precip increase likely Sectors vulnerable to climate risk 

7. Priorities in impacts & adaptation • The flaws of a sectoral approach … multi-sector strategies (e.g. intra-departmental coordination on water-health-livelihoods link in both causation and adaptation strategies) • Acknowledging the challenge of complex emergencies/multiple stressors (e.g. cholera outbreak – summer 2008/9) • Win-win strategies (e.g. corridor and landscape planning as an adaptation strategy) • Link to overall thinking on policy on climate change and environment in Africa – multiple synergies and the MEAs (more shortly) • Understanding thresholds and progressive exceedances (households, institutions, management systems, ecosystems) • Root adaptation in what is currently done to cope with climate variability (from the communal farmer to the mining house)

8. How South Africa & SADC are tackling climate change • Beyond communication & dissemination of climate risk science to real sectoral & multi-sectoral impact • Second National Communication on Climate Change (led by SANBI – www.sanbi.ac.za) • Global Change Grand Challenge; including Global Change Bureau, ACCESS, COE on Sustainability and Global Change, SAEON, Risk & Vulnerability Atlas • Adaptation and other climate change units at Dept Water & Environment • Units at Dept Water & Environment – key focus on concrete strategies across departments, including water, health, disaster management, agriculture (planning commission in Office of the Presidency) Work in SADC – coupling climate change capacity building to existing SADC early warning and disaster management processes

9. Towards Copenhagen & COP15 • Hopes in international climate negotiation that a new, international climate change agreement for the post-2012 period will be agreed in Copenhagen in 2009. • Again, we are already committed to a certain amount of change, even with great progress in Copenhagen

10. Nairobi Declaration on African Process for Combating Climate Change (May-June 2009) Common African negotiating position on a comprehensive international Climate Change regime beyond 2012; ensure that African common position – basis for negotiations by African group during negotiations for post2012 regime + takes into account Africa priorities (SD,poverty reduction and MDGs attainment) Develop a comprehensive framework of African Climate Change Programmes (coordination & coherence in implem and review of climate change initiatives & SD plans in Africa @ all levels; + common approach to engaging international community); Support Africa to increase economic competitiveness - low carbon development; Urge dev countries to set ambitious emissions reductions targets (2020 - @ least 40% below 1990 levels; 2050 – 80 – 95% below 1990 levels) Common approach to engaging with the international community in developing solutions to tackle the challenges posed by climate change; Agreement on the modalities for submitting the outcomes of the Special Session to the African Union at its summit to be held in July 2009

11. Africa priorities for increased support under future climate regime • Adaptation • Capacity building • Research • Financing(improved geographical distribution of CDM projects; expansion of eligible categories to benefit from carbon credits & other post-2012 incentives to incl sustainable land use– possible fund establishment to reduce emissions through sustainable land-management practices; incl forest conservation, sustainable forest management, avoidance of deforestation, afforestation and sustainable agriculture) • Technology devt & transfer(just mentioned) • Incl support for South-South transfer of knowledge • Including indigenous knowledge systems Annex IV – Conceptual framework for African climate change programmes – UNEP/AMCEN/12/9

12. Sobering realities on the way forward to conclude • Joanne Yawitch (Water & Environment DDG) – comment on UNFCCC negotations in Bonn • ‘confident will come out of Copenhagen with an architecture of what the Climate Change regime will look like’ (although picture post G8 not encouraging) • ‘…very confident that one will get a second Kyoto commitment period, with new numbers’ • ‘less optimistic’ that the financial framework for developing-country support would be finalized Christy van der Merwe, Engineering News, June 11th 2009