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UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC. H. J. BOSHOFF AND R. CORNWELL. SCOPE. BACKGROUND AFTER SUN CITY PRETORIA DEAL CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION INCIDENTS MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL CONCLUSION. BACKGROUND. 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT

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UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

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  1. UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC H. J. BOSHOFF AND R. CORNWELL

  2. SCOPE • BACKGROUND • AFTER SUN CITY • PRETORIA DEAL • CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION • INCIDENTS • MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL • CONCLUSION

  3. BACKGROUND • 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT • THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE KIVUS • MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR • PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE

  4. AFTER SUN CITY • AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA • END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA AGREEMENT • RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD • THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED • THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE. • THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI

  5. PRETORIA DEAL • THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES • PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH AFRICA) • IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR • THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME INTER ALIA: • FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF SIGNATURE • ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE • DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF SIGNATURE • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF SIGNATURE

  6. PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD) • ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM THESE FORCES • DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND MONITOR THIS AREA • SECURITY CURTAIN • ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE OF MONUC. • RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL. MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE FORCE. • SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL

  7. PRETORIADEAL(CONTD) • SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA • ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED • TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE • DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND EX-FAR ON D+10 • DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D+15 • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D+45 • THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO EXECUTE PHASE 3 • PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC

  8. CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

  9. MONUC DEPLOYMENT

  10. REBEL DEPLOYMENT

  11. REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH • RCD-GOMA: 15 000 • MLC: 10 000 • RCD-K-ML: 2 000 • RCD - N: 3 000

  12. FOREIGN FORCES DEPLOYMENT

  13. MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002 • SECTOR 1 • MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY ANTONOV • SECTOR 2 • LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI • 14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA • UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA

  14. CONT • SECTOR 3 • SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA AND PWETO • LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU ON KALEMI ROAD • 20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2 BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE BATTALION • RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD DESTABILISE THE EAST

  15. CONT • RCD – N VERSUS RCD – K/ML • RCD – N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO ORIENTALE PROVINCE. • ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD – N RECAPTURED MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF ADVANCING ON DURA • ON THE ISIRO –DUNGU ROAD, RCD – N HAS RETAKEN GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS • ON THE ISIRO – WAMBA AXIS RCD – N CONTROLLED WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION OF NIA - NIA, • ZDF WITHDRAWL • 15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC • ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN • ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT TO MBUJI MAYI

  16. CONT • UPDF WITHDRAWL • UPDF WITHDREW FROM BENI, 1 X BN, GABOLITE, 1 X PL • 1 X BN STILL IN BUNIA ON UN REQUEST • RWANDAN MOVEMENT • 10 000 TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE • 16 KM FROM LUBERO • 1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO

  17. MONUC PHASE 3

  18. GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN THE DRC • VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT • LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS • DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES • WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES • INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE • COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES • COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES • COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS • TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR • EX FAR • INTERHAMWE • ALIR 1 • ALIR 2

  19. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS • STAGE 1: TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS. • DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC, ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU • THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF ‘TASK FORCE I’ TO KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU • FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500 • STAGE 2: ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME. • DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY • SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000) • STAGE 3: SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS. • SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY CONCEPTS • EXTENT OF ANY MONUC RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING BORDER SECURITY • TO LINK KINDU WITH KISANGANI, LUMUBASI AND KALEMI

  20. UPDATE ON PHASE 3 • KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL • DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP SETUP • RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED • 1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED • DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED • KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED • BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED • KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED • LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED

  21. Assembly Areas Priority Presence of troops Risk Assessment Logistics UAG to be Demobilised Deployment Remarks Bukavu 1st Low Very good ALiR, FNL, FDD, Mayi Mayi 1 Bat (-) Kananga 1st 1 Coy (+) Low Very good ALiR, WNBF, UNRF II, LRA 1 Bat (-) Kalemie 1st 1 Coy (+) Low Good ALiR, Mayi Mayi 1 Coy Kamina 1st Medium Very good FDD 1 Coy 1,800 unarmed and screened ALiR troops already present Goma 2nd 1 Coy Medium Very good ALiR, Mayi Mayi 1 Coy Kindu 2nd Medium Good ALiR, Mayi Mayi 1 Bat (-) Main DDRRR headquarters Manono 2nd 1 Coy Low Good FDD, Mayi Mayi 1 Coy Boende 2nd 1 Coy Low Good ALiR 1 Coy Beni 2nd Medium Good ALiR, ADF, NALU, Mayi Mayi 1 Bat (-) Uvira 3rd High Good ALiR, FNL, FDD, Mayi Mayi 1 Bat (-) Lubumbashi 3rd Low Very good ALiR, FDD, Mayi Mayi 1 Bat (-) Kongolo 3rd Medium Very good ALiR, Mayi Mayi 1 Coy Mahagi 3rd Medium Good LRA 1 Coy Gemena 3rd Low Very good UNITA 1 Coy Isiro 4th Low Good LRA TBC Alternative to Mahagi Shabunda 4th Medium Regular ALiR, Mayi Mayi TBC Main UAG concentration area

  22. MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE • MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY • THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA • THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED • SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK FORCE

  23. CONCLUSION • INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED: • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL • THE EXECUTION OF MONUC PHASE 3 • THE COMPLETION OF THE POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE DRC • THE REGIONAL SUMMIT

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