Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS) Draft Benefits Analysis August 2004

1. Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS) Draft Benefits AnalysisAugust 2004 DRAFT

2. Background • Original Contract Established With PWC – June 2002 • Identify and Quantify Safety and Efficiency Benefits • Analyze Potential Savings Through LAAS Commissioning • Contract Modified – August 2003 • Expanded to Include Comparison of Incremental Benefits to Navigation Baseline • ASD ROM Analysis Released – October 2003 • Results Costs Exceeded Benefits (0.5:1 BCA) • Management Supported Continuation of IBM Analysis • Complete Detailed Independent Analysis of Potential Benefits • Draft Report – September 2004 (Flight Plan Goal) • Final Report – October 2004 DRAFT

3. Why An Independent Analysis? • To Conduct An Objective Assessment of the Benefits That LAAS May Provide to Aviation System Users • To Provide Fact-Based Support For Government and Industry Decisions • Credibility and Transparency With Industry Stakeholders • Using Data Provided By Airlines and Airports • Validate Findings Through Site Visits • Memphis, Seattle, Bradley, Newark, Chicago • FedEx, Alaska, United, Continental, Southwest • Boeing • Update Industry Stakeholders Through Regular Communication • Formal Conference Calls to Review Methods and Results • Informal Discussions, Conversations • NOT a Formal Business Case or Alternatives Analysis DRAFT

4. Approach • Created a LAAS Benefits Analysis Team to Develop Initial Assumptions and Provide Feedback During the Study Period • Team Included ASD, AVR, IBM, MITRE, and the LAAS Program Office • LAAS Benefits Accrue Only When Capabilities Are Provided Above and Beyond Those Provided by Other Systems • Assumes No Decommissioning of Any Existing Systems • Current ILS’s Retained • No New ILS’s Installed After IOC (FY2009) • Benefits For Continuing ILS In Lieu of LAAS Are Not Analyzed • Analysis Includes Both 100% and 0% WAAS Equipage Scenarios • Study Limited to Top 120 NAS Airports • Major Airlines’ Top Airports (88) • NBAA Top 10 Airports • RAA Top 50 Airports • LAAS LRIP Sites (6) • OEP Airports (35) • Current Cat II/III ILS (79) • Qualifier Cat II/III ILS (2) DRAFT

5. Navigation Capabilities Baseline • NAS Baseline • Existing Navigation Systems Deployed in the NAS • Navigation Systems Planned to be Deployed in the NAS During the Twenty Year Time Horizon (2009-2028) • User Baseline • Existing Navigation Equipage of Avionics Systems Available • Newer Technologies Expected to be Available During the Twenty Year Time Horizon (2009-2028) • Users Include • Major and Regional Air Carriers • Cargo and Passenger • Domestic Operations • Corporate • GA (Alaska Only) • Baseline Does Not Include Systems in the R&D Stage That Have Not Been Through Proof of Concept • Baseline Does Not Include the Impact of Installing ILS at Every Runway End DRAFT

6. LAAS Incremental Capabilities • Identify LAAS Capabilities Above and Beyond Those in the Existing Baseline • Incremental Capabilities Include: • Precision Approach and Guidance to Multiple Runway Ends From a Single LAAS Ground Facility • Greater Siting Flexibility • Multiple Glideslopes For Aircraft Simultaneously Approaching the Same Runway • Displaced Threshold Without Physical Relocation of the Ground Facility Components • Complex Guidance For Approach, Missed Approach, or Departure Segments DRAFT

7. LAAS Efficiency Benefits • Benefits That LAAS Capabilities Have on Disruptions and Efficiency Above and Beyond the Existing Baseline • Efficiency Benefits Include: • Reduced Flight Disruptions for Straight-In Precision Approaches • Reduced Flight Disruptions with LAAS Precision Takeoff Guidance • LAAS-Based Complex Procedures • Elimination of ILS Critical Areas • Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches DRAFT

8. LAAS Safety Benefits • Conducted by Flight Safety Foundation • Incremental Safety Benefits LAAS Provides Above and Beyond the Baseline • Safety Benefits Include: • Reduced Accidents and Incidents Because of Greater Precision Approach Coverage • Positive Surface Guidance in Reduced Visibility • Current Level of Safety Benefits Are Maintained or Improved During Transition DRAFT

9. Societal Benefits • International Leadership • Importance of Maintaining U.S. Industrial Leadership in the World • Ability to Use Common Avionics/Procedures Worldwide For Seamless and Simplified Navigation • Noise Abatement and Mitigation • Reduced Impact on Environmentally Sensitive Areas • Societal Benefits Include: • Noise Rule Violation Costs • Land Acquisition for Noise Compatibility • Residential and School Soundproofing • Reduction or Lifting of Curfews DRAFT

10. Dallas Love Field 18 Current Cat I ILS Runways Proposed Cat II/III LAAS Runways 13L 13R 36 31R 31L DRAFT

11. Current Operation Cat I ILS on four runways 13 L/R 31 L/R No Cat II/III system 0.4% of DAL weather is Cat II/III per year Actual Annual Cat II/III Disruptions (Major Airlines): Delays = 362 Cancellations = 56 Diversions = 23 LAAS Incremental Benefits Cat II/III landing guidance LAAS Cat II/III approach operations on 13L & 31L Estimated Annual Cat II/III Disruptions With LAAS (Major Airlines): Delays = 168 Cancellations = 15 Diversions = 18 DAL Example DRAFT

12. Example - DAL Inputs Used in the Straight-in Analysis DRAFT

13. Summary of LAAS Benefits(120 Airports 2009-2028) DRAFT

14. Proportion of the Discounted 20 Year LAAS Best Estimate Benefits • The largest benefit is achieved for straight-in approaches, with the largest portion of that being due to LAAS Cat II/III DRAFT

15. ILS Comparison • ILS Upgrade/Replacement Costs vs. LAAS or MLS • Estimate the Ground Equipment, Installation, Operations, and Maintenance Costs Associated with Replacing or Upgrading Existing ILS Installations with Either ILS, MLS, or LAAS • Cost Analysis of Precision Approach Alternatives • Evaluate the Relative Costs of Future Allocations of ILS, LAAS or MLS Ground Equipment • Alternatives Evaluated: • Install LAAS • Install One or Several ILS (s) • Install One or Several MLS (s) DRAFT

16. Sensitivity Analysis & Issues • IBM is Conducting a Sensitivity Analysis to Address Concerns Raised During the Study Period • LAAS Avionics Installed Over a 6 Year Period, Beginning at IOC • Minimum LAAS Avionics Equipage Level for Benefit: 80% • Airline Direct Operating Cost of a Flight Disruption • Coordinating With ASD on Open Issues: • Estimate for Duration of Delays • Cost of Disruptions • Airport Configurations DRAFT

17. Schedule DRAFT

18. BACK UP SLIDES DRAFT

19. LAAS Characteristics • One LAAS Provides a Signal Suitable for Use at Most Runway Ends at an Airport Compared to One ILS Per Runway End • Does Not Have Runway Specific Critical Areas • Critical Areas Mitigated by Siting Flexibility • Easier to Maintain • Fewer Components Per Airport Architecture Allows Multipath Masking • Less Vulnerable to RFI Than ILS • Immune to Spoofing • Airborne Antenna is Less Susceptible to Jamming DRAFT

20. Map Of Airports DRAFT

21. ILS/LAAS Costs • ILS Costs • Equipment • CAT I $150K • CAT II/III $200K • Installation • Replacement $300K • New $600K • LAAS Costs • Equipment $500K-$600K • Installation $250K-$600K DRAFT