The `Arab Spring`: a Democratization Story?

1. The `Arab Spring`:a Democratization Story? Hirotaka ONO Mingxuan YU International Relations Spring 2013 2013.6.5

2. Content • Introduction of the Arab Spring • Causes • The first trigger of the Arab Spring. • Major Events • Impact of the Arab Spring • Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • US Strategy • Question • Argument

3. Introduction of the Arab Spring The Arab Spring is the series of protests and demonstrations across the Middle East and North Africa that began on December 18th,2010. Until June,2012,rulers have been forced from power in four countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

4. Causes Dictatorship or absolute monarchy Human rights violations Political corruption Economic decline Unemployment Extreme poverty

5. The first trigger of Arab Spring ・Self- immolation on December, 2010 A Tunisian guy burned himself to death with gasoline . A video was taken of this event. →　Some demonstrations were held for him. →　The police fired bullets against protesters. This provoked widespread uprisings across Tunisia.

6. Major events • ・ Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen. →toppled the governments. • ・Jordan, Morocco, Oman →Modest protests led to some tentative reform. • ・Algeria →Protests vanished early on. They were exhausted from years of brutal civil wars.

7. Major events • ・Bahrain, Saudi Arabia → got stern crackdown from the governments. • ・Syria → evolved into civil war, killing over 80,000 people.

8. Impact of the Arab Spring • People have 21st satellite television, modern communications technology and social media. ↓ • All governments need genuine political and economic reform, but not propagandas to trick the public.

9. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring Three topics that have been illuminated by the events of the Arab Spring.

10. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring 1.The relationship between democracy and religion.

11. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • What was needed for both democracy and religion to coexist? • The answer was a significant degree of institutional differentiation between religion and the state. • Twin Tolerations • Multiple Secularisms

12. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring 2.The character of hybirdregims that mix authoritarian and democratic elements.

13. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • Five regime types: democratic, authoritarian, totalitarian, posttotalitarian and sultanistic. • A new sixth type: the `authoritarian – democratic hybird` regime.

14. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • Why do we name it as hybird? Answer: • They never had a fully institutionalized totalitarian regime. • They can no longer be adequately characterized as authoritarian or sultanistic, either. • They are not or not yet democracies.

15. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring 3.The nature of `sultanism` and its implications for transitions to democracy.

16. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • The ruler`s near – complete personal discretion is a hallmark of sultanism. • For example, Rafael Trujillo, the dictator of the Dominican Republic from 1930 to 1961, made his son a brigadier general when the boy was nine. This is sultanism.

17. Democratization theory and the Arab Spring • Before the Arab upheavals of 2011, the regimes in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Egypt and Tunisia all displayed some features of sultanism. • For example, in Tunisia, Ben Ali let his wife and her family treat the Tunisian economy as their personal property.

18. U.S. strategy after the Arab Uprising Introduction: in intervening in the Middle East. • U.S national interests • 5 dilemmas • 3 approaches

19. U.S. national interests 1. Protect the U.S homeland from terrorism & weapons of mass destruction. 2. Ensure the flow of oil 3. Ensure the safety of Israel, the U.S ally

20. 5 dilemmas 1 Oil vs Political reform To ensure the flow of oil, the U.S has to rely on its allies. But They are reluctant about political reform. 2 Terrorism vs Terrorist's propagandas To combat terrorism, the U.S wants to operate in the Middle East. But The U.S presence in the Middle East gives terrorists good propagandas.

21. 5 dilemmas 3 Israel vs Other Arab countries The U.S wants to favor Israel over Palestinians. But This unbalanced approach angers other Arab countries. 4 Syria vs Military resource. The U.S intervention in Syria might accelerate the end of civil wars. But The U.S is exhausted from Iraq war.

22. 5 dilemmas 5 Democratic reform vs Undemocratic allies. To spread democracy, the U.S wants to push political and economic reform. But The U.S partners in the Middle East will react harshly, accusing the U.S of interfering in domestic matters.

23. 3 U.S approaches • Primacist Approach: ・Favor a muscular and militant approach, ・Enhance American power and hard security interests rather than supporting democratic change.

24. 3 U.S. approaches 2. Off shore balancing Approach: ・Work indirectly through U.S allies and partners to maintain a balance of power favorable to American interests. ・Not ambitious about the political reform

25. 3 U.S. approaches 3. Progressive engagement: the best strategy Approach: ・Encourage the emergence of strong, democratic partners. ・Draw down the U.S. military presence.

26. Conclusion :More assertive • Obama should clearly propose American’s policy direction. The direction: The U.S. will push for greater respect for human rights and democratic participation, not pursuing deeper military involvement.

27. Question • Is Arab Spring the forth democracy? • Our answers. • Answers of you.

28. Argument • What do you think of America`s intention in the Middle East?

29. Thank you for listening.