Space Weather Science and the KuaFu project

1. Space Weather Science and the KuaFu project Rainer Schwenn Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Lindau, Germany Schwenn@mps.mpg.de Despite the enormous progress in recent years, there is still a lack in understanding of several key links in the long chain of actions and reactions that connects our Earth to its parent star, the Sun. They concern 1) the origin of disturbances at the Sun (flares and CMEs) and our inability to forecast them, 2) the propagation of their effects to the Earth, 3) their capability of entering the Earth system, and 4) the magnitude of the terrestrial effects. I will review these processes and point out where the KuaFu mission is supposed to achieve better understanding, in context with the International Living With a Star (ILWS) program. KuaFu status presented to the ILWS in Uppsala, 12.June 2007

2. 105 attendees, more than 80 presentations

3. 1 2 4 3 The missing links in the Sun-Earth chain • Photospheric reponse to vortex flows in the convection zone in terms of build-up of magnetic stresses and helicity: potential warning signs hidden! • The role of reconnection: driver, trigger, or sequel • Flare/CME type and SEP acceleration • Transformation of CMEs into ICMEs • Propagation of ICMEs through the ambient solar wind • Relation of shock/sheath/cloud topology with eruptive filament • Relation of geomagnetic response with upstream parameters

4. What is needed in space weather science? • To understand the complete chain of actions/reactions from the solar atmosphere to geo-space, we must study: • Sources of eruptions: • Warning signs for flares, CMEs, SEPs • Propagation of disturbances: • Interplanetary clouds, radio waves, shock waves, SEPs • Geo-effectiveness : • Aurora activities, sub-storms, magnetic storms, • Effects at and near the Earth: • Satellite protection, GICs, radiation doses, bioeffects, • Realistic (running!) computer models: • The complete Sun-heliosphere-Earth system.

5. Present situation for space weather missions: • SOHO at L1 (EIT, LASCO, MDI, CELIAS, ERNE, et al.), in orbit since 1995, nominal life time exceeded but still operational, funding safe until 2008, LASCO maybe longer. • But: No magnetometer on board • ACEat L1 (MAG, SWEPAM, et al.), in orbit since 1997, nominal life time exceeded but still operational, funding safe until ??? • But: No optical instruments, no radio wave instrument.. • WIND near L1 (Waves, SWE, EPACT etc), in orbit since 1994, nominal life time exceeded but still operational, about to be shut off. • But: No optical instruments • TRACE (UV/EUV high resolution disk imager) in Earth orbit since 1998, nominal life time exceeded, still operational, about to be shut off. • But:No in situ instruments, no coronagraph

6. Future space weather missions: • STEREO A&B(PLASTIC, IMPACT, SECCHI, SWAVES), in Earth-like orbits, launched in 2006, life time probably not more than 3 years • But: will lose context with Earth after 3 years. • Hinode (EUV imaging spectrometer, X-ray telescope), in Earth orbit, launched in 2006, • But: no in-situ instruments, no coronagraph • Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), in Earth orbit, to be launched in 2008, life time more than 4 years • But: no in-situ instruments, no coronagraph • Solar Orbiter, in near-Sun execliptic orbit, launch 2015 (?) • But: not much context with Earth • Sentinels 2013 ?? • Solar Probe ???

7. Present situation in space weather science: • SOHO and ACE are in excellent status right now. They may live much longer, but they might as well die every day in their extended mission. • Wind is about to be terminated. • STEREO A&B will lose context with Earth after 3 years. • That means: • No in-situ data on space weather will be available when both, SOHO and ACE, will be finished. The 2 STEREO S/C will be out of range after about 2009, anyway. • That means further: • Within a few yearsfrom now, we might again be completely blind with respect to space weather! • Therefore: • KuaFu is badly needed!

8. The attending KSC members all agreed that KSC should finalize the model payload and will consider no more new instrument proposals before the AO process. The model payload of KuaFu-A keeps the payload decided by the third KSC meeting on July 18th, 2006. The model payload of KuaFu-B is based principally also on the decision of the third KSC meeting, plus a newly added plasmasphere EUV imager and a search coil wave instrument. Sixth KuaFu Science Committee (KSC) Meeting Jan 18th, 2007 and Jan 19th, 2007 ShanHaiTian Hotel, Sanya, China

9. January 15, 2007, Sanya, China Chair: Mr. Keran Wang (CNSA) Attendees: Hermann Opgenoorth ( ESA) William Liu (CSA) and other 16 representatives from related agencies Endorse the formation of the coordinating group with membership from CNSA (Chair), ESA and CSA The first International Coordinating Meeting on the KuaFu Mission

10. The report (in Chinese) of the scientific goals and observations of KuaFu mission has been approved by a very high level review meeting supervised by CNSA on Jun 1st, 2007. The review report gives the KuaFu mission a high evaluation and suggests a launch time around 2012. This just means a green light from the Chinese space science community, and it will certainly have influence on CNSA. KuaFu SRD (Chinese v.) approved

11. KuaFu is now a background project of CNSA. The comprehensive review including SRD and PDD will be finished in August 2007. Schedule for SRD, PDD and SMP Hopefully in September 2007: CNSA and ESA, together with CSA and other national funding agencies, can collaborate on the formulation of a Science Management Plan (SMP), which should define each agency’s responsibilities, and describe how to execute science operation and science data handling for the mission.