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Top-level Research Initiative Interaction between climate change and cryosphere Magnus Friberg

Top-level Research Initiative Interaction between climate change and cryosphere Magnus Friberg Chair of Programme Committee TFI annual Conference , 16 September 2010. The present Cryosphere. UNEP map of Cryosphere. 2xCO 2 , cold orbit 8.29x10 6 km 3 (Oligocene c. 25 My).

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Top-level Research Initiative Interaction between climate change and cryosphere Magnus Friberg

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  1. Top-level Research Initiative Interaction between climate change and cryosphere Magnus Friberg Chair of Programme Committee TFI annual Conference, 16 September 2010

  2. The present Cryosphere UNEP map of Cryosphere

  3. 2xCO2, cold orbit 8.29x106km3 (Oligocene c. 25 My) 1xCO2, cold orbit 30.50x106 km3 (Last Glacial Maximum) The past Cryosphere Understanding feed-back loops Future is data poor DeConto et al., Nature, 2008

  4. Onset of glaciations Zachos, Dickens, Zeebe, (2008) DeConto et al., Nature, 2008

  5. Amplifies initial growth Produces hysteresis Stability of large ice sheets CO2 cooling Hysteresis From DeConto 2010

  6. Stability of large ice sheets East Antarctic Ice Sheet hysteresis N. Hem ice sheet hysteresis DeConto et al., Nature, 2008

  7. Trace gases and shortlived climate drivers IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007

  8. The Role of Permafrost Walsh et. al 2010, ACIA report

  9. The Sea ice extent over time IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007

  10. NCoE – ICCCNordic Centre of Excellence ProgrammeInteraction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere

  11. Purpose and rationale The objective of ICCC is to support science driven questions of high interest to society, science, industry and/or national infrastructure. All Nordic countries are effected by the Cryosphere IPCC models performs badly for the Cryosphere Important for industries like hydropower, forestry, fishing, transport, exploration and tourism Nordic Cryosphere research is in many ways world leading

  12. Support to ICCC NCoE Project duration is five years (3+2) Funding covers: • Support to researcher and key staff • Fellowships for visiting professors • Fellowships for post docs • Fellowships for PhD students • Nordic research schools (research training) • Equipment • Travel, management and co-ordination

  13. Objectives of CRAICC – Cryosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate • Role of short-lived climate forcing agents - SLCF • Identify and quantify the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback mechanisms and to outline strategies to mitigate Arctic warming • Develop Nordic Earth System modelling • Supradisciplinary knowledge transfer

  14. Objectives of DEFROST • To improve our understanding of Arctic terrestrial and shallow sub-sea permafrost interactions with climate • To provide improved data on energy exchange, carbon cycling and GHG emissions from terrestrial and near coastal cryospheric environments • To improve on climate model capabilities for simulating the feedback processes associated with observed changes in permafrost, snow and ice

  15. Objectives of SVALI – Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice • A comprehensive joint Nordic research programme to study basic processes (flux of meltwater and icebergs from glaciers) • Using remote sensing, airborne and in-situ measurements • Carry out advanced Earth system Modelling • Focus on glaciers in the Arctic /N-Atlantic area. • Establish a Nordic graduate school in cryosphere science and Earth System modelling

  16. Features of the centres in the NCoE programme • Each NCoE has partners from all five Nordic countries, one including Greenland • The NCoE programme has participation from the other Arctic countries (Russia, USA, Canada) and the UK • Each NCoE has about 17 partners • The NCoE programme involves about 340 researchers • Open data policy within and between NCoE’s

  17. If the future becomes like the past The horrors of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) Isfjordenviewed from Longyearbyentowards Pyramiden some 50 Million yearsago (pCO2 = 2000ppm) (Nathorst 1910, Backman and Moran 2009)

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