Presentation Transcript

1. Rapid climate change in the cryosphere Melting Arctic sea ice and the next Cold War The cryosphere and rising sea levels Gradual sea-level rise and its potential impacts Sudden sea-level rise in extreme weather Superstorm Sandy Hurricane Katrina Supertyphoon Haiyan

2. Components of the cryosphere

3. Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
4. Antarctic continental ice sheetand ice shelves that are extensions of the ice sheet over ocean.
5. Continental ice sheet on Greenland
6. Alpine glaciers
7. Melting and retreat of alpine glaciers
8. Melting and retreat of alpine glaciers Muir Glacier, Alaska (1941 and 2004)
9. Glacial mass balance – a measure of the amount of ice stored as alpine glacial ice (SLE: sea level equivalent)
10. Melting of Greenland ice sheet
11. Melting of Greenland ice sheet
12. Supraglacial lakes and moulins http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYKKgn0GaY0&feature=related
13. The late-summer ice cover, mainly composed of thick multi-year ice, has been shrinking the fastest (29% per decade) which may soon result in an ice-free Arctic Ocean
14. Loss of Arctic sea ice
15. Arctic sea ice comprising the ice cap in the Northern Hemisphere. Perennial sea ice persists over several years. Seasonal sea ice is what froze the prior winter and will melt the following summer. http://www.nasa.gov/mov/279615main_seaIce_2008_V2_wDates_IPOD.mov
16. Melting of perennial sea ice in the Arctic
17. Arctic sea ice tipping point Positive feedback mechanism : increases melting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ999LIWvJk
18. Potential fisheries “Donut hole” in the central Arctic Ocean that does not fall under any country’s jurisdiction -- beyond EEZs. Until recently, locked in ice 12 months a year. Now seasonably accessible and potential new fishery.
19. Potential fisheries US has put a moratorium on Arctic Ocean fishing within their EEZ Informal international moratorium on fishing until fisheries can be assessed However, no formal management in place
20. The Arctic accounts for 13% of the undiscovered oil, 30% of undiscovered natural gas, and 20% of natural gas liquids
21. Oil reserves in the Arctic 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,660 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remain untapped in the Arctic. Russia is the first to move offshore into Arctic Ocean waters Drilling is protested because of Arduous weather conditions Limited ability to clean up spills when ice is present Human presence in natural habitats is minimal
22. Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage (aka Northern Sea Route) Connect Atlantic and Pacific Now more seasonally navigable NWP has even recently accommodated passenger ships, Canada considers NW Passages their Internal Waters, but US and some European countries maintain say they are international strait or transit passage, allowing free and unencumbered passage
23. Northeast Passage
24. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) After initial draft in 1982, countries could join through ratification UNCLOS gave countries ten years from the date they ratified to substantiate their claim to the sea floor of their continental shelf beyond EEZ Five states fronting the Arctic Ocean and their deadlines: Canada (2013), Denmark (2014), Norway (2006), the Russian Federation (2007), and the U.S. US has not ratified the legitimacy of the UNCLOS
25. If the sea bed is an extension of the continental shelf of the country, then that country can claim exclusive rights to the sea bottom and resources below the bottom. 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) still valid but only pertains to fish in water column and surface waters Sea floor claims do not extend a state's EEZ Countries must copious scientific evidence to show that the seabed in question is indeed their continental shelf. Final approval is to be done by UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
26. UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf Claims can be incipient (temporary) and not final May be 2019 for a verdict on Arctic. Commission in danger of being overwhelmed, or at least judged irrelevant by more militaristic and imperialistic countries. It must rule on everything from the geological (is the sedimentary composition correct?) to the metaphysical (what determines whether an island can be inhabited and thus part of a territory?) Rulings can be challenged through the Court of the Hague
27. Russia 2001 Russia filed a claim to the continental shelf as far as the North Pole based on the Lomonosov Ridge within their Arctic sector. UNCLOS neither approved or denied this claim but requested time to study it.
28. Russia In August 2007 Russian scientists sent a submarine to the Arctic Ocean to gather data in support of Russia's claim that the North Pole is part of the Russian continental shelf. Planted flag at the North Pole Provoked a hostile reaction from other Arctic countries prompted media speculation about a "new Cold War" over the resources of the Arctic.
29. Canada Has until the end of 2013 to submit a claim
30. Canada
31. Denmark Owns Greenland Initially claimed that the LomonosovRidge is in fact an extension of Greenland in Filed new claim in Nov 2013
32. China
33. China
34. Arctic Council The Arctic Council admitted China as an observer member, along with India, Italy, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. If countries excluded, they might shift discussion to other forums thereby weakening the power of the Arctic Council
35. Closing Politics key to outcome of opening of the Arctic and how environmental change will proceed Key questions are whether economic imperatives will wait for international deliberation and rule making and how will enforcement be handled Other countries increasingly exerting their influence through involvement with the Arctic Council