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2013 Florida Legislative Overview

Explore the latest insights on the Florida economy, including population growth, housing market trends, tourism impacts, and unemployment statistics. Get an overview of the legislative preview for 2013 and how it may affect different sectors of the economy. Stay informed to make better financial decisions in the Sunshine State.

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2013 Florida Legislative Overview

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  1. 2013 Florida Legislative Overview United Way of Miami-Dade 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United Way of Florida, Inc.

  2. Money - Post War U.S. Recessions 2

  3. Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August 3 Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012

  4. Florida Economy Population 4

  5. Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 2012 5

  6. Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 2011 6

  7. Florida Economy - Population Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth 318,000 7

  8. Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group 8 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  9. Florida Economy Construction Home Sales Foreclosures 9

  10. Florida’s Long Recovery Construction • -384,000 jobs from 2007 • +4,200 (1.3%) jobs Sept/Sept • 2007 levels won’t return until 2031 10 Source: University of Central Florida, August 2012; Associated General Contractors, November, 2012

  11. Home Sales Continue Improving Existing Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012 • +24.4% • US - +14.5% • 8 months consecutive increase • +14.1% - Median Sales Prices • $154,000 • +10.6% - Average Sales Price • $223,301 Condo Sales • +18.3% • +20.2% - Median Sales Prices 11 Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013

  12. Home Sales 12 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  13. Florida Foreclosures Florida Foreclosure Rate • #1 in US 2012 • 1 Filing for every 312 Housing Units • US Rate = 1/706 • #1 – Foreclosure filings in January • 29,800 homes entered foreclosure • July –December 2012 • 105K - foreclosures cleared from the court • 98K – foreclosures started • December 31 – 371K pending foreclosures Source: RealtyTrac & Office of the State Courts Administrator, February 2013 13

  14. Florida Foreclosures Average Foreclosure Timeframe in Florida • 2007 - 169 days • 2012 - 861 days (about 2.5 years) • 3rd longest in nation But…Foreclosure Starts +24% Dec./Dec Result on FL Budget Flat/slight growth in property tax income. Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Long Range Financial Outlook, Fall 2012 14

  15. Florida Foreclosures Ahead 38% of all residential loans in Florida are for homes that are underwater. 15 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  16. August 2012 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map 16 Source: RealtyTrac LLC, August 2012

  17. Florida Economy Tourism 17

  18. Tourism Rocks! Total Tourism Spending (Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales) 2002-2011: 2002 - $51.1 billion 2003 - $51.5 billion* 2004 - $57.1 billion  2005 - $62.0 billion 2006 - $65.0 billion 2007 - $65.5 billion 2008 - $65.2 billion 2009 - $60.9 billion 2010 - $62.7 billion 2011 - $67.2 billion 18 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  19. Tourism Rocks! Total State Sales Tax Revenues from Tourism 2002-2011: 2002 - $3.0 billion 2003 - $3.1 billion 2004 - $3.4 billion 2005 - $3.7 billion 2006 - $3.9 billion 2007 - $3.9 billion 2008 - $3.9 billion 2009 - $3.7 billion 2010 - $3.8 billion 2011 - $4.0 billion 19 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  20. Tourism Rocks! Number of Persons Directly Employed by Tourism Industry 2002-2011: 2002 - 862,900 2003 - 874,700 2004 - 920,700 2005 - 948,700 2006 - 964,700 2007 - 991,300 2008 - 1,007,000 2009 - 973,800 2010 - 974,700 2011 - 1,013,100 20 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

  21. Tourism Rocks! Quarter ending June 30, 2012 over 2nd quarter 2011 • +1.3% overall • 2.4M Foreign Visitors: +10% • 18.8M domestic visitors: +0.3% Tourism Jobs: +1.1% (11,300) to 1,041,900 Tourism-Related Taxable Sales: +8.8% ($31.5B) 21 Source: Visit Florida, August 2012

  22. Florida Unemployment 22 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  23. Florida Unemployment December 2012 Florida Unemployment • 8% - lowest rate in more than four years (11/08). • 7.8% - US Rate • 749,000 Floridians unemployed New jobs: • Leisure and hospital industry lead the way: +29,900 jobs (3.1% increase) 23 Source: Department of Economic Opportunity, January 2013

  24. National Jobs Lost & Recovered 24 Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012.

  25. Florida Budget Florida Budget 25

  26. Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Bad: • 2010 SS payroll tax deduction expires - $6.5B • Temporarily reduced in 2010 (6.2% to 4.2%) • 7.1 million Florida households seeing a tax increase • Median Florida household ($45,000) – +$900 taxes in 2013. Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 26

  27. Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Good: • Extended federal emergency UC program, due to expire Jan. 1, for another year. • $1.4 billion for Florida economy • Long Term Unemployment • US – 40% • FL – 50.6% Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 27

  28. Florida Budget The Sequester $85 billion in spending cuts (2.4% of $3.6 trillion in federal spending) Source: The White House, February 2013. 28

  29. Florida Budget The Sequester: Florida Impacts • -31,000 civilian DOD jobs furloughed (-$183.2m) • -7,450 – children vaccinated (-$509,000) • -2,700 Head Start Children • -1,600 – subsidized child care children • -$3.8 million – meals for seniors • -$5 million – substance abuse grants • -$54.5 million – primary & secondary education Source: The White House, February 2013. 29

  30. Florida Budget Florida: Positive Debt Picture • -$2B since 2010 • $28.2B - $26.2B AAA Bond Rating • State Borrowing • 2012 - $416M • 2002-2010 - $2B annually (avg.) • Programs dependant on bonding: • School construction &maintenance (57% of debt load) • Transportation (27%) • Florida Forever (10%) 30 Source: Office of the Chief Financial Officer, December 2012

  31. General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011 31

  32. General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) • Updated December, 2012 • All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over • Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 32

  33. No Budget Shortfall??? 2013-2014 Budget: “Flat” Flat is good! Budget surplus: first in 5 years 33

  34. Florida GR History 34 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

  35. Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 35 Source: The Florida Legislature

  36. Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 36 Source: The Florida Legislature

  37. Florida Budget 2012-2013 37 Source: The Florida Legislature

  38. Florida Budget 2012-2013 38 Source: The Florida Legislature

  39. Florida GR Revenue Sources 39 Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook

  40. 2013 Legislative Session Overview Thanks! 40

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