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Grain Market Outlook 2014: Key Factors and Forecasts

This overview covers the current grain market factors and outlook for 2014, including supply trends for corn, wheat, and soybeans. It also discusses weather forecasts impacting grain production and pricing in key regions like Brazil and the U.S. Additional insights from the World Agricultural Outlook Board and Marketing Partners Advisory Recommendations are provided to help navigate market dynamics.

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Grain Market Outlook 2014: Key Factors and Forecasts

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  1. ADM Grain Market Outlook2014 Agriculture Council of Arkansas Annual Meeting David Glidewell Mid-South Regional ManagerDecember, 2014

  2. Current grain market factors 1) World 2014/15 corn supply still adequate 2) World 2014/15 wheat supply still adequate 3) World 2014/15 soybean supply still record 4) Lower US 2015 corn supply? Higher soybeans? 5) US 2014 winter weather normal? 6) Higher US dollar and lower Commodity prices? 7) US farmer still slow in selling 2015 corn/soybean crop 8) Grain fundamentals still suggest lower 2015 prices 9) US Transportation cost drop in west

  3. Improving Rainfall Is Expected In Center West And Center South Brazil During November, But Some Erratic Rainfall Early To Mid-Month Will Still Keep Some Of The Rain Totals Below Average. That Will Change In The December Through February Period When A More Classic El Nino Influence Is Expected. The Summer Will Bring On Some Drier Biased Conditions In Rio Grande Do Sul, Uruguay And Immediate Neighboring Areas While Argentina Sees Timely Rainfall And Warm Temperatures. The Greatest Rain In Brazil This Summer Should Be In The Same Areas That Have Been Quite Dry And Hot In The Past Couple Of Weeks.

  4. Winter Will Be Influenced By Many Different Weather Features. The Weak El Nino, 18-Year Cycle And Arctic Oscillation Will Have The Greatest Influence. However, Pacific Decadal Oscillation And The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Will Have Some Influence. Each Of These Seem To Agree That The Southeastern U.S. Will Be Colder Than And Wetter Than Usual This Winter. There Is Much Agreement About The Southwestern States Being Cool, As Well, And The Central And Southern Plains Wetter Than Usual. El Nino Will Help The Pacific Northwest And Midwest Have Some Below Average Precipitation Biases At Times During The Heart Of Winter, But Arctic Oscillation, El Nino And The 18-year Cycle Will Combine To Produce Some Infrequent, But Quite Potent Cold Surges Into The Eastern Half Of The Nation.

  5. World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing December 10, 2014

  6. Price Summary December 10, 2014

  7. Weekly nearby soybean futures chart

  8. Big crops and strong US dollar; US exports?

  9. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand December 10, 2014

  10. Monthly soybean futures chart

  11. July,2015-Nov, 2015 soybean spread chart

  12. Weekly nearby corn futures chart

  13. These estimates assume good weather in next several months

  14. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand December 10, 2014

  15. U.S. Meat Production and Prices December 10, 2014

  16. U.S. Rice Supply and Demand December 10, 2014

  17. Monthly Chicago wheat futures chart

  18. Marketing Partners Advisory Recommendations CORN: 2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015  $4.60                                      Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22 2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34 SOYBEANS: 2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago January 2015 $11.66                                 Recommendation: Sell 10% at January 2015 at $11.00 2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27                                 Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00 WHEAT: 2014-crop SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.88 Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015  $6.25 2015-crop SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18 Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015  $6.25

  19. PRESERVING WEALTH!

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