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Circulation types applied:

Circulation types applied:. AIR QUALITY. Matthias Demuzere MCM6 Meeting Ioannina - Workgoup 4 - May 2008. From WG4 meeting in Brussels…. Idea after WG4 meeting Brussels….

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Circulation types applied:

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  1. Circulation types applied: AIR QUALITY Matthias Demuzere MCM6 Meeting Ioannina - Workgoup 4 - May 2008

  2. From WG4 meeting in Brussels…

  3. Idea after WG4 meeting Brussels… After Brussels it became clear that a “uniform” decision on which classification method is “better” in terms of air quality is difficult. Depending on the method used as an evaluation tool for classification methods on air quality applications, results were often different or even contradictory. In our “air quality subgroup”, we decided that it would be usefull to test our various evaluation methods on the same dataset of each country involved (Belgium, Poland, Romania), and to compare our results afterwards.

  4. Therefor… …the following methods are compared: R² as an “index of performance” (Matthias) EV statistics (Jolanta) Singular Spectrum Analysis Method (Sabina) …using the following set of data

  5. Location of stations & Domains

  6. The method:R² as an “Index of Performance”

  7. R² as an “Index of Performance” STEP 1: Calculate the mean of the environmental variable for a selected time period (DJF, JJA, and year) and for each circulation type within a classification method. STEP 2: Replace each value of the circulation type time serie with the corresponding mean of the environmental variable value. STEP 3: Calculate R² coefficient between observed and reconstructed time series of the environmental variable. Step 4: This R² can be seen as an “Index of Performance” of the circulation method applied on air quality variables.

  8. R² as an “Index of Performance” (C’d) STEPS 1 to 4 are done for: DJF, JJA and ALL YEAR data Remark: For the 2 Polish stations, only DJF is considered. taking mean concentration per weather type, each time for the period under consideration (DJF, JJA, year) for the specific domains of interest (04, 07 and 10 for Be, Po and Ro respectively) and the D00 domain (for all).

  9. Results:“Comparison between the methods” Belgium

  10. Results – Belgium (03 – Moerkerke)

  11. Results – Belgium (03 – Vezin)

  12. Results – Belgium (PM10 – Uccle)

  13. Results:“Comparison between the methods” Romania

  14. Results – Romania (TSP – Baia Mare)

  15. Results – Romania (TSP – Resita)

  16. Results – Romania (TSP –Ploiesti)

  17. Results:“Comparison between the methods” Poland

  18. Results – Poland (PM10 – Prokocim)

  19. Results – Poland (PM10 – Aleje)

  20. Results:“Depandancy on location?” Belgium

  21. Results – Belgium (03) – d04 DJF JJA year

  22. Results – Belgium (PM10) – d04 DJF JJA year

  23. Results:“Depandancy on location?” Romania

  24. Results – Romania (TSP) – d10 DJF JJA year

  25. Results:“Depandancy on location?” Poland

  26. Results – Poland (PM10) – d07 DJF

  27. Results: Conclusions

  28. Conclusions… … concerning the method (R²) & General results: Using R² as an index of performance, the means of an air quality quantity are being addressed. Thereby, it is often hard to decide which method is preferable to use compared to other methods. This method could be extended with a method of “extremes”, in order to have a complete insight in the discriminative power of a classification method. UITBEREIDEN MET ZOEKEN NAAR WELKE METHODES STEEDS HOOG SCOREN EN WELKE FACTOREN DAARIN EEN ROL KUNNEN SPELEN…

  29. Conclusions (Cont’d) … … concerning the time series: Air quality time series are short (sometimes just from the year 2000) and therefor it is often difficult to do quantitive studies. For ozone, it seems more appropriate to divide the data into seasonal time series instead of looking at the whole year. For PM10 or TSP, this seasonality is less pronounced. … concerning the depancy on locations: Generally, when using different measurement stations within the same domain of analysis, the results for each station are similar, although there are some isolated exceptions. (e.g. negative R² values for 1 station and strongly positive for another station within the same domain)

  30. Conclusions (Cont’d) … … concerning the applicational side: Using the R² method, it is possible to look more in detail into the main circulations patterns leading to higher values of a specific air quality. Using the plots on COST733wiki, these patterns can easily be compared for all circulation methods of interest! e.g.: * For the types with the highest index of agreement, checking the patterns which corresponds with the highest concentration of an air quality variable, and comparing these patterns in between methods (EG 1 & 2). * Within a method with a high R², check the pattern with the highest concentration, and this for different locations in the same domain (EG 3, 4 & 5). * …

  31. EG.1: Highest JJA [O3] in Vezin (Be) The circulation patterns from different classifications (PERRET, OGWL, HGWL) which corresponds to the highest [O3] in Vezin (Belgium), in summer….

  32. EG.2: Highest DJF [PM10] in Uccle (Be) The circulation patterns from different classifications (SANDRAS, ZAMG, SHUEPP) which corresponds to the highest [PM10] in Uccle (Belgium), in winter….

  33. EG.3: DJF [TSP] for HBGWL – Ba/Pl/Re The circulation patterns from 1 classifications (HBGWL) which corresponds to the highest [TSP] in 3 Romanian stations (Ba, Pl, Re resp.), in winter….

  34. EG.4: DJF [PM10] for LITTC – Pr/Al The circulation patterns from 1 classifications (LITTC) which corresponds to the highest [PM10] in 2 Polish stations (Prokocim & Aleje), in winter….

  35. ++ R² - R² + R² EG.5: DJF [TSP] for SANDRA – Ba/Pl/Re The circulation patterns from 1 classifications (SANDRA) which corresponds to a totally different reaction in terms of R² for three stations within the same domain (10 – Romania). Presented here are the patterns from SANDRA with the highest concentration of TSP in winter.

  36. That’s it!Thank you! Contact: Matthias.Demuzere@ees.kuleuven.be MCM6 Meeting Ioannina - Workgoup 4 - May 2008

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