GEO Work Plan Symposium 2011 4 – 6 May 2011 Plenary Session

1. GEO Work Plan Symposium 2011 4 – 6 May 2011 Plenary Session

2. Task Title : DS-02 High-Impact Weather Forecasting Definition : Improve the range and quality of services for high impact weather forecasting due to the design, future development, and operation of global observing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and user application techniques. Deliver more accurate, reliable and relevant weather analyses, forecasts, advisories and warnings of severe and other high-impact hydrometeorological events enabled by enhanced observational capabilities (Weather Strategic Target). Improve operational weather/climate forecast systems for early warning and food security (Agriculture Strategic Target). Significantly increase the use of Earth observations by all sectors for improved prediction of potential hazards to the energy infrastructure (Energy Strategic Target).

3. Deliverable 1 A global high-impact weather multi-model prediction system (e.g. develop a user-friendly database of ensemble weather forecasts; produce user-driven probabilistic products such as tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall and strong wind distributions; contribute directly to high priority issues such as disaster early warning, food security, and energy infrastructure safeguard). To be implemented in connection with IN-01 (GCI), DS-01 (Disaster Risk Reduction), and DS-09 (Agricultural Monitoring) Priority Actions: • … • … • … • … Leads (Members and/or Organizations, tentative): ..., …, …

4. Priority Actions • Consider and reach a consensus concerning future archive strategy, product generation and service provision. • Review data format, common web interface, and archiving experience accumulated during tropical cyclone prototype product.  • In the context of the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDPs) further develop prototype TIGGE products for evaluation and assessment especially considering tropical cyclone tracks and very heavy rainfall as initial steps in the implementation of GIFS. • Finalize and implement revised data archive and access arrangements

5. Deliverable 2 A high-impact weather information system (e.g. for Africa: provide a common platform to collect, store and exchange data – not only observations and model outputs but also event documentation, particularly impacts on society, the economy and the environment).

6. Priority Actions Organize a workshop to take forward the following activities. • Increasing the predictability of high-impact weather events in Africa. • Enhance use of non conventional observing technologies • Design of an optimum observing network for Africa • Completion of a high impact weather information System for Africa. Assembly of a set of case studies of high impact weather events across Africa to promote scientific research and socio-economic studies.

7. Deliverable 3 • Needs to be defined in relation to Korean plans and activities.

8. Lead Members/Organisations etc., • WMO - WWRP (THORPEX) • Korea

9. Related 2009-2011 Work Plan Progress (e.g. on the development of systems, datasets, tools and information) Update on TIGGE Progress

10. TIGGETHORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble • A major component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts • GEO task WE-06-03 /DS 02 Objectives: • Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities. • Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors • Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

11. TIGGE data • Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and development of probabilistic forecasting methods. • TIGGE data is made available for research after a 48-hour delay. Near real-time access may be granted for specific projects through the THORPEX International Project Office.

12. Summary of TIGGE database (late 2010) * Delivery of KMA & BoM data currently suspended

13. TIGGE Archive Usage (NCAR + ECMWF)

14. Publicising TIGGE • Major Article in BAMS • New leaflet to publicise TIGGE to researchers • Contribution to GEO book “Crafting Geoinformation” • Tropical cyclone case study in WMO Bulletin • Update of TIGGE website

15. TIGGE Research Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include: • a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts (bias correction, downscaling, etc.); • combination of ensembles produced by multiple models; • research on and development of probabilistic forecast products. TIGGE data is also invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects, for example on dynamical processes and predictability. Up to the end of 2010, 43 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature

16. Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) • Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk – unlikely but potentially catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events. • The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by developing and evaluating probabilistic products to deliver improved forecasts of high-impact weather. • As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format.

17. GIFS concept • GIFS will use global-regional-national cascade pioneered by the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). No single “GIFS centre”. • Further development and evaluation of products will be done in conjunction with SWFDP and other regional pilot projects. • Use of web-enabled technology for generation and distribution of products.

18. GIFS development • GIFS-TIGGE WG has initiated a GIFS development project • Develop products, based on TIGGE ensembles, focused on forecasts of • Tropical cyclones • Heavy precipitation • Strong winds • Collaborate with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other FDPs and RDPs to provide an environment for the evaluation of prototype products, and to ensure that products address needs of operational forecasters and end users.

19. Re-organization of 2009-2011 Sub-tasks (i.e. which sub-tasks support the new Task) • … WE-06-03 • … WE-09-01a and WE-09-01b

20. Resources Available for Implementation (current status and in planning) • Ongoing contributions from Members • EC bid for funding - project GEOWOW in negotiation –if successful scheduled to commence on 1 Sept. 2011

21. Issues and Gaps • … THORPEX Africa requires additional resources • … Progress is slow and patchy • … Previous initiatives for funding did not succeed

22. Possible Measures to fill Gaps • …Renewed bid for resources • …Re-visit plans and adjust priorities • …Discuss other initiatives with African NMHSs

23. Open for Plenary Discussion → Identify Synergies → Improve Cross-Fertilization → Identify Measures and Actions to Fill Gaps