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Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios An expert judgement experiment

Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios An expert judgement experiment. ESPON Project EU 2050 Meeting of the TPG Milano, 7-8 february , 2013.

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Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios An expert judgement experiment

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  1. Territorial Impact Assessment of Scenarios An expert judgement experiment ESPON Project EU 2050 Meeting of the TPG Milano, 7-8 february, 2013

  2. The use of TIA in order to assess territorial impact of 2030 and 2050 Scenarios is considered an essential part of the ET2050 project, in the view of properly defining the 2050 Vision. Aim of the present exercise: Definingquali-quantitativeimpactsof the 4 Scenariosthrough expert judgement: - by Impact Fields - byTypologiesofRegions Aims of the exercise

  3. Territorial Impacts have to be calculated for: - the Baseline Scenario, at 2030 and 2050, the 3 Exploratory Scenarios, at 2030 and 2050 The methodology is similar to the one utilised in the previous EsponProject TEQUILA (Espon 3.2.) and simplified in the ARTS Project. In terms of impact indicators, most of the necessary inputs are provided by the simulation procedures of the quantitative models utilised . Where this proves unfeasible, impacts are built on the basis of experts judgement, group work and discussion inside the TPG. General TIA Methodology

  4. The assessmentprocessofeach Scenario

  5. DrivingForceshelp summarising the mainhypothesesunderlyingeach Scenario and theirPotentialTerritorial Impact Economic: macroeconomic elements, financial markets, international competition and trade, FDI, technological change Cultural/Political: international solidarity, environmental awareness, inclusiveness, migration Policies: Cohesion policies, rural development Transport policies, urban policies DrivingForcesin each Scenario

  6. 4/20 Impact Fieldsagreedby the SteeringCommittee

  7. Impact fieldsfor the expert experiment

  8. Impact bydrivingforces on fields

  9. Impact bydrivingforces on typologiesofregions

  10. a. Impacts go from 4 to 0 (very high, hi, moderate, low, nil) b. Impact signs are alreadyindicated: don’t worryabout! c. Fill first the DrivingForce/Impact Fieldmatrix, then the DrivingForce/Regionsmatrix d. Suggestion: start bydrivingforce:fill the first columnfor the Baseline Scenario, thenfill the samecolumn in the otherscenarios. Theseimpactshavetobefully and rationallycomparable! e. In eachcell, put 2 scores: referringto 2030 and 2050 Instructions

  11. Manythanksindeed foryourcollaboration!! THANKS

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