Understanding Territorial Impacts: Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment

1. Understanding Territorial Impacts: Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment Bernd Schuh (ÖIR) Karkow, Nov. 2011

2. ESPON ARTS • The Tasks • Develop a simplified, evidence-based procedure of Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) • Supply policy makers with an operational procedure that could work as a “evidence informed policy support” • Analyse ex-ante the impact of EU policy proposals taking the sensitivity of regions into account • Test the TIA quick check with a set of 12 directives

3. Policies Regions Exposure Territorial sensitivity Territorial impact The theoretical approach The vulnerability concept

4. Vulnerability Concept Definitions in ARTS • Potential effects (exposure): Which economic, social, and environmental fields could be affected by EU directives? • (Territorial) sensitivity: Which characteristics make a territory potentially affected in its economic, social, and environmental fields? • Impact: Which are the territorial effects of a certain policy given its potential effects and regional sensitivities? • Adaptive capacity: How weak/strong is the ability of a system to adjust to the potential impact? => link to governance aspects

5. The TIA Quick Check An excel tool and a procedure • A user-friendly methodology that allows to make a ‘quick and dirty’ ex-ante analysis of the potential impact of EU policy proposals on the development of regions • Combining • a standardised indicator-based Excel tool with • means to systematically collect expert knowledge in a workshop setting

6. 9 Steps to Assess the Territorial Impact of Policy Proposals • The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? • Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) • Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) • What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) • What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) • Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) • Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) • What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) • How to communicate the results? (write-up)

7. (1) Conceptual model: Brainstorming Creating a systemic picture linking the regulations with territorial effects

8. Regulative framework Environmental effects (1) Result: Conceptual Model Air – aerial spraying prohibited – Improvement of air quality National Action Plan – Monitoring & Control Implementation process Deducing potential effects from Directives Training Emission Water – efficient application techniques (no aerial spraying, no drift application) – Improvement of water quality Education/awareness Soil – „immission“ decreases – improvement of soil quality (sustainable use of) Pesticides Socio-economic effects Eco-system/Bio-diversity Agricultural production quantity Land use/types of territories – Natura 2000/FFH – special use of land (hospitals, parks, playgrounds) – strong protection Agricultural production quality Input related sectors – pesticide production – spraying equipment Employment Social effects Innovation Recreational value of land Output related sectors – drinking water – fisheries – tourism Quality of Life Human Health positive correlation negative correlation

9. (2) Picturing different cause - effect chains(branching) • The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? • Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) • Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) • What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) • What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) • Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) • Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) • What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) • How to communicate the results? (write-up)

10. (3) Expert judgment: types of regions exposed Provided: 20 typesofregions (NUTS2)tobeselected

11. (3) Background: existing typologies of regions 0: no 1: yes

12. (4) Expert judgment: exposure caused by Directive 0: no 1: yes

13. (4) Background: List of 41 exposure fields

14. (5) Input for impact: regional sensitivity Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2) 41 Normalisedindicators: 0,75: minimumsensitivity 1,25 maximumsensitivity

15. (5) Result: Calculation of territorial impact Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)

16. (6): Plausibility check • The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? • Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) • Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) • What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) • What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) • Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) • Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) • What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) • How to communicate the results? (write-up)

17. (7) Result: Map for each indicator Effects of Directive on recognition of qualification on migration balance in countries of origin

18. (8) + (9): Dealing with the results • The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions? • Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching) • Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure) • What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix) • What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix) • Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check) • Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results) • What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion) • How to communicate the results? (write-up)

19. TIA Quick Check in 2 versions A Standard version and an Advanced version • The standard TIA quick check: • Helps to identify the relevant thematic fields that are effected by a policy proposal. • Allows to select NUTS2 regions with a potentially high positive or negative impact. • Helps to set a focus for further and more detailed impact analysis. • The advanced TIA quick check • Allows users to define special indicators describing the exposure to policy proposals and the regional sensitivity • Provides the technical framework for the vulnerability analysis • Can serve for a more detailed analysis of a specific potential impact of policy proposals.