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Analyzing Zone Exits: A Deep Dive into Penalty Killing Strategies

Explore the significance of penalty kills in the NHL, focusing on zone exits and how they impact team success. This analysis delves into the New Jersey Devils' penalty killing methods, providing valuable insights for hockey enthusiasts.

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Analyzing Zone Exits: A Deep Dive into Penalty Killing Strategies

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  1. Killing Time Analyzing Zone Exits on Penalty Kills by John Fischer, All About the Jersey

  2. Introduction Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  3. Thank You • It’s important to thank people first • Ryan Stimson & RITHAC organizers • Timo Seppa • NHL.tv & NHL.com • Corsica, Hockey-Reference, WAR on Ice • Natural Stat Trick • My family & girlfriend • Brian Franken & other writers at All About the Jersey • The Readers of All About the Jersey Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  4. Do Penalty Kills Matter? • In the last two seasons, the average number of PKs per game ranges from 2.4 to 3.5 for NHL teams per NHL.com • Scoring is at a premium: 2.71 goals per game in 2015-16 per Hockey-Reference • Coaches, players, tactics assigned for special teams • Conclusion: Penalty killing matters (to a degree) Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  5. Current Penalty Killing Measurements • Success rate (PK%) • Goals allowed/Shorthanded situation • Focuses on key matter: was a goal allowed? • Shorthanded (or 4-on-5) CA/60 or SA/60 • Attempted shot rate or actual shot rate in shorthanded situations • Identifies how much has been allowed • Can be drilled down to the player Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  6. Why Focus on Time? • Current PK measurements do not tell us what actually is done on the PK or how much time is eliminated with a zone exit – the actual killingin a penalty • Goal: Analyze zone exits to answer those questions (and more) • Approach: Track the New Jersey Devils PK to find those answers • Hope: This data could be used in conjunction with current PK measurements to determine if a team’s PK is effective Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  7. Why Look at the N.J. Devils’ PK? • Devils have been one of the least offensive teams since 2012: • GF/Game range per NHL.com: 2.09 – 2.20 • CF/60 range per Corsica: 43.06 – 51.86 • Not giving up power play goals helps them stay competitive Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  8. Why Look at the N.J. Devils’ PK? • They’ve been interesting over last two seasons: • 2014-15 • First 15 games: Terrible success rate, lots of Bryce Salvador • Following 21 games: Fantastic success rate, Adam Larsson’s pre-mumps ascendency • Remaining 46 games: Average success, three coaches behind the bench • 2015-16 • Two new defensemen: John Moore, David Schlemko • Full season for Adam Larsson on the first unit • Brand new management, coaches, trainers, etc. Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  9. Their primary defensive formation on the PK has stayed the same despite changes in last two seasons Triangle plus one Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  10. Methodology & Definitions Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  11. The Methodology • Tracked every single shorthanded situation by the Devils in last two seasons. • Detailed 2014-15 results posted at All About the Jersey • Record every attempted zone exit. • Zone exit type & the player number of who did it. • Time the puck left the Devils’ end • Zone entry type & the targeted defenseman • Time the puck entered the Devils’ end with intent to attack • A pass back by the Devils to kill time doesn’t count Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  12. Eight Zone Exit Types Defined Pt. 1 • Icings, or any intentional exit that went beyond the neutral zone before possession • Clearances, or any intentional exit that was stopped in the neutral zone by possession • Forced Outs, or any unintentional plays by a Devil that led to an exit • Examples: Blocks, attempted pass interceptions • Unforced Outs, or any exits made by a non-Devil • Examples: Ends of periods, opposition left zone Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  13. Eight Zone Exit Types Defined Pt. 2 • Carry Outs, an exit where possession was maintained across the blueline • Pass Outs, an exit where a pass was completed across the blueline • Goals Allowed, the worst type of exit • Denials, an intentional exit attempt prevented from leaving the Devils’ zone by someone • Does include hitting Devils, doesn’t include touches that still lead to exits Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  14. Team Findings Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  15. Summary of Devils PKs Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  16. Summary of Devils PKs: Zone Exits Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  17. Zone Exit Count by Type Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  18. Total Time Killed by Zone Exit Type Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  19. Avg. Time Killed by Zone Exit Type Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  20. Correlations • Is there evidence of a relationship between attempts/shots against & time killed? • PK per Game Measurements from this project: • % Time Killed • Total Time Killed • Total Time Defended – Inverse of Time Killed • Natural Stat Trick provides shorthanded Corsi Against (CA), Fenwick Against (FA), & Shots Against (SA) by game Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  21. Correlations: R2 Values for 2015-16 Data Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  22. Player Findings Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  23. Devils Defensemen vs. Forwards Note: # of Devils at Position that made at least one zone exit Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  24. Devils Defensemen vs. Forwards Averages Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  25. Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  26. Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  27. Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

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  31. Observations & Conclusions Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  32. Conclusions of the Devils’ PK • Devils were more efficient in their exits in 2015-16; contributed to more successful PK • Fewer denials; improved exit success rates • Improved efforts at extending exits • Icings did not kill the most time on average but they were performed the most • Defensemen attempted icings more than forwards • Player often was quick at attempting an icing Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  33. Going Forward with the Devils’ PK • Project shows turnover will be big for 16-17: • Andy Greene & Adam Larsson carried the load on defense – and Larsson is gone • There may be a lot of faith put into Ben Lovejoy • Unclear who else on defense deserves more minutes • Travis Zajac & Adam Henrique led forwards; Gionta was effective in his duties – and he’s unsigned • Need to identify forwards for second unit Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  34. Conclusions on PKs in General • Winning that opening faceoff helps and guards against the “zero exit” calamity • Power plays will run their breakouts; especially after an iced puck • Disrupting or delaying the breakout will extend that zone time well beyond the 12-16 seconds an exit may provide • Quick re-entries are rare after icings • There is variation with time killed within games Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  35. Conclusions on PKs in General • Assuming PKs kill 39%-44% of time in a season; your goaltender really does have to be “your best penalty killer” • Team will deal with more attack time than not • An effective PK needs all players to be able to make contributions • Icings are incentivized • Safer and more plausible play Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  36. Potential Improvements • This methodology is not perfect • More detailed zone exit types • Specifying distances ; particularly for “icings” • Zone exit assists • What creates the zone exit (e.g. faceoff, battle)? • Noting actions that extend killed time • Forechecks, shots, etc. and who does them? • Better video – only TV broadcasts were used • More teams to analyze • Allows more general understanding on PK Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

  37. Lastly • There is a lot more that can be looked and concluded from this data • Uncut presentations will be up at All About the Jersey: http://www.allaboutthejersey.com • Thank you for listening Killing Time 2016 - John Fischer - RITHAC

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