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Crop Outlook

Stay informed on US corn and soybean supply, crush margins, export shifts, and the impact of La Niña on agribusiness. Learn about Iowa crop prices, future market trends, and factors affecting farmers. Explore detailed insights on the agricultural industry.

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Crop Outlook

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  1. Crop Outlook Beginning Farmer Network Meeting Ames, Iowa Oct. 4, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 1,708 1,708 Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. La Niña Winter

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Historical Export Levels Week 4 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  16. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  17. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $4.40-4.50 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

  18. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are north of $10 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  19. This Year

  20. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will demand be able to keep pace with supply? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $4.40, Soy $9.90 Futures: Corn $4.50, Soy $10.22 • 2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.43, Soy $10.03

  21. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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