Seeing the Potential: Acting on the Opportunity

1. Seeing the potential: Acting on the opportunity What is driving the need for radical innovation? Compiled by: Sheila Moorcroft Research Director: Shaping Tomorrow

2. From potential to opportunity What may be changing?What might it mean for us?What should we do about it?

3. A rapid review of critical changes • Using Shaping Tomorrow’s experience, 78,000+ indicators of change and 3500+ trends we suggest five major areas of change which are creating the need for new approaches, greater creativity and more innovation • They have implications for HR, business models, organisational structures, skills, training and education ....... • There are others..... this is a starter kit - a snapshot of changes, designed to trigger ideas and discussion NOT cover issues in detail • You can read them in about 15 minutes

4. What is driving the need for radical innovation? From tell to engage 1 billion new consumers A kaleidoscopic mosaic Generational differences widening Values, attitudes aspirations & expectations changing Multi-layered worlds – virtual, augmented, real Instant communications Integrated global infrastructures & systems Global access to learning and sharing Opening up in a big data, multi-layered world Complexity and competiition rising Radical / frugal innovation Collaboration rules Radical innovation Global supply chains Transparency and trackability Global challenges need global solutions New tools creating new capabilities Population growth Intelligent connectivity Inside information – genetics, neuroscience, nanotechnology Resource pressures rising An Overview Navigating a multi-polar world Very clever robots Changing climate, environment & eco-systems 3D printing revolution 4

5. World population: growing and ageing • It is not just the west that is ageing: 59 nations have below replacement fertility rates; growth is from longevity not births • We will need to work smarter, but also find jobs for global youth http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm

6. Aspirations and confidence rising • 1 billion new consumers are coming; pressures on resources will rise • Mobile connectivity is creating a multiplier effect, & new solutions • Six of the ten fastest growing economies are in Africa ; emerging market companies are growing fast • Competition and expectations are changing

7. Different attitudes and approaches abound • An ageing boomer generation is making waves • The connected i-generation is growing up • Mosaic markets and mobile workforces require very differentiated solutions

8. Data rich environments and feed back loops • By 2020, 50 billion things will be connecting and communicating... Creating visibility, big data and rapid feedback • Social media an interactive overlay to life; instant consumer feedback loops and viral responses • Companies will need to respond fast and flexibly 8

9. Extending realities brings new approaches • From 2D to 3D, interactive worlds and surroundings • Augmented realities enable remote working, multi-sense marketing, product and location information at fingertips, real time offers, blended world gaming and leisure, virtual health care and training......

10. Open, bottom up, collaborative, crowdsourced.... • Citizen science & gamification are finding new approaches and solutions; fast • Collaboration is breaking out; finding new bottom up approaches • Open systems are speeding up responses – in all directions

11. Radical transparency: nowhere to hide? Connectivity is bringing transparency and trackability – legal and illegal Corporations and governments open to scrutiny Privacy concerns rising New ways to track anything and everything, in real time emerging

12. Technology changing how we do things

13. A 3D printing revolution arriving Has moved from prototype to manufacture to design shops to consumers Expanding list of materials and levels of sophistication An increasing range of applications – legal and illegal - will change the dynamics of sectors from food to pharma, electronics to aviation, jewellery to furnishings, not to mention manufacturing and distribution

14. NANO has already arrived Breakdown of specified nano applications in consumer products • Numbers of nanotechnology applications are rising • Its applications could transform products and processes – everlasting tyres, self healing materials, digital storage...... • Health and environmental concerns may yet become a major barrier

15. Bio-science revolution, ready for take off? Source: Chris Warkup • Genomics, proteomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics , nutrigenomics.... • A personalised medical revolution? • A food / new green revolution? • A fuel revolution? • But concerns about playing god......

16. Global challenges on many fronts • Global pressures on food & water supplies + other resources are growing • Climate change is bringing more extreme weather • Oceans are under the next frontier • Global issues need global responses

17. Changing structures in a multi-polar world • G8 has become G20 • Economic fragility in the west + growing economic strength & confidence in emerging market countries is changing the balance of power • Social / political tensions remain high & are growing in many areas • Navigating these global complexities is ever more difficult 17

18. Managing the complexity of a self-organising world Levels of social, political, & organisational complexity are growing We are moving from a top-down control to bottom-up self-organising world New organisational forms and business models are emerging 18

19. New suppliers, approaches, solutions • New forms of competition from radical innovation and cost cutting in any number of sectors – hospitals, cars, animal health, food, m-payment, mobile advertising, work distribution..... • New responses from existing players needed

20. Shaping Tomorrow- keeping track of change • Helping clients with strategy development, change management, innovation, collaborative working, foresight...... • www.shapingtomorrow.com