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Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade

This article discusses how the International Trade Centre (ITC) can contribute to monitoring and evaluating trade performance in the context of Aid for Trade. It highlights various trade-related information and indicators, as well as collaborations and partnerships that can help assess trade performance. The article also delves into the use of trade indicators and considerations when analyzing trade performance, and suggests the use of domestic surveys to deepen analysis. Additionally, it explores how ITC's network can be mobilized to evaluate the effectiveness of Aid for Trade.

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Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade

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  1. Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade How ITC can contribute

  2. Areaswhere ITC can contribute • Trade-related information & indicators • Analysis of trade performance • Qualitative evaluation on effectiveness of aid for trade

  3. 1. Trade-Related Information & Indicators Trade Map • A database and analytical web application covering the trade flows and indicators of trade performance for 220 countries and territories Market Access Map • A database and analytical web application on customs tariffs applied by 185 countries and faced by 239 countries and territories. It includes ITC pioneered methodologies / calculations of ad valorem equivalent tariffs allowing protection levels to be aggregated for any product or country group Investment Map • A database and analytical web-based application that combines information on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade, market access and foreign affiliate company data to help in FDI promotion strategies. It can also be used to analyse performance in attracting FDI. Trade Competitiveness Map • An interactive web application ranking countries trade performance from a static and dynamic perspective at a national or sectoral level across a wide range of trade related indicators

  4. Trade-Related Indicators & Analysis:Examples of ITC Collaborations World Tariff Profile • A joint publication of ITC, WTO & UNCTAD profiling tariff structures of over 150 countries Millennium Development Goals • Tracking progress on market access for developing countries and LDCs World Economic Forum • Trade and market access indicators for the Global Enabling Trade Report 2008 WorldBank • Trade and market access indicators for the World Trade Indicators publication and web site

  5. 2. How to Assess Trade Performance? • Size of exports: • In absolute or relative terms (e.g. USD vs per capita)? • Dynamism of exports: • Growth in absolute or relative terms? • Extent of diversification of export portfolio: • Size of export portfolio in terms of products and markets? • Degree of concentration on top products and markets…? • Composition of export portfolio: • Products for which world demand is strong and/or growing? • Commodities where country is a price taker and cost competition is critical? • Products that are strongly differentiated and less vulnerable to price shocks? • Products with high value addition, economies of scale ….? • Services? • Destination markets for exports: • Slow growing vs fast growing? • Markets where buyer preferences are highly elaborated? • Stable vs risky…?

  6. Export Diversification: products and markets

  7. Exports per capita versus Growth of exports

  8. Export portfolio of products: Size versus diversification

  9. Export diversification: Products versus markets

  10. Considerations when using trade indicators • Partial view of reality: Aggregate value cannot be fully interpreted without examining what is happening at a more detail level • An overall average performance may hide excellent performance in some sectors or regions & poor in others • Role of multinational firms in country performance • Interpretation is not always clear • Is “more” always “better” (e.g. export diversification)? • Time dimension • Weak performance in absolute terms but growing rapidly • Analysing the country’s performance relative to its `real` competitors • Situation relative to the world or countries that resemble you e.g. export portfolio, economic and geographic situation (per capita income, size, landlocked, terrain), culture….. • Can’t capture the value addition of exports • The same USD of exports may correspond to very different value addition depending on the amount of intermediate goods imported e.g. assembly work vs full value chain taking place in the country

  11. 3. Deepening trade performance analysis with domestic survey • Surveys of enterprises on: • Domestic supply conditions • Competitiveness • Socio economic impact of the sector (job creation, gender, rural development etc) • Interviews with local experts / stakeholders (ministries, industry associations, chambers of commerce / TPOs) • Business environment conducive to export • Legal framework • Fiscal environment • Political environment

  12. Evaluating Effectiveness of Aid for Trade – An infrastructure of partnerships in developing countries ITC can mobilise its network to address questions around Aid for Trade e.g.: • How conducive is the environment for export in your country ? • To what extent has aid for trade in your country helped your exports? ITC’s network includes: • Policy Makers e.g. national ministries, trade negotiators etc • Trade Promotion and Trade Support Institutions • Industry Associations through ITC Sector Programmes • National Data Providers • Enterprises (Surveys on local supply conditions, NTMs etc) • Periodic Client Surveys

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