Development of future mobility scenarios in a SUMP process using a simulation game

1. Development of future mobility scenarios in a SUMP process using a simulation game ISB - RWTH Aachen University Conny Louen 08.05.2014

2. Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen • Renewalofthetransportdevelopment plan in thecityof Aachen started in 2011 • Additional creationof a sustainable urban mobility plan in theregionof Aachen since 2013 Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen University Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen University

3. Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion

4. Civitas Dynamo • Project co-financedbytheeuropeanunion • Goal: implementsustainablemobilityplanning in fourcities/regions • Started in 2012 Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion • Eachcity/regionisgoingtocreate a SUMP • The simulationgame will beconsidered in the SUMP-process Source: Civitas Initiative

5. Need for the simulation game Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: GuidemapsConsortium 2004, p. 11

6. Need for the simulation game life-styles law budget demo-graphy migra-tion popu-lation politics plans aging traffic Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion costs custom-ers mobility offer economy availa-bility employ-ments quality goods Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

7. Goal of the simulation game • Introduceinvolvedstakeholderstocomplexityofmobilityrelatedforecasts • Reducepredictioncomplexitybylimitingconsideredfactorsandcreatingthesis • Buildupcommonscenariosoffuturemobilitybyanalyzinganddiscussingthestakeholderssimulationgameresults Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

8. Use case of the simulation game Simulation Game • Game containsgeneralthesisrelatingtofuturemobility • During SUMP developmentprocess • Involved Stakeholders playgame • Game resultsareanalysedandusedasbaseforbuildingupfuturemobilityscenarios Simulation Game Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13 Edited Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13

9. Game structure Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion

10. Game structure Control bar • Areas representing • Functionalpartsof a city • Mobility andtransportoffers • Click leadsto • Issuewithtwoorthreetheses Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion • Functionalparts • Expandorcontract • Traffic volume • Increasesordecreases

11. Game content • 11 topicswith 14 thesis • Foreachthesisthereareuptothreechoices Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion • 3 categoriesoftopics: • General conditions • Lifestyle • Mobility/transportoffers Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

12. Thesis • Onethesis after theothertheusercanmakehischoices • The userhastocompletethegamebyediting all thesis Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

13. Choice andconsequences S1 Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion S2 Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

14. Output • Image filewith final stateoftheeditedcityanduserdataforvisualizationoftheresults • Data setwithuserchoicesanduserdataissaved in a databaseforaggregateanalysisoftheresults Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

15. Analysis • Frequenciesofthesischoices • Frequenciesofthesischoicesbygroups (e. g. differentiatedbyusersrole in the SUMP process) • Most frequentlychosenthesiscanbeidentifiedandcombinedto a limited numberofscenarios Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion Analysis anddiscussionofsimulationgameresults Goal: generating‚commonscenarios‘ Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen

16. Conclusion • Simulation gameisdevelopedforusewithin SUMP process • Tointroduceparticipants in thecomplexityofmobilitybasedforecasts • As basisforcompilingcommonscenarios • Game usershavetochoosebetween different thesisreferingtomobilityrelatedtopics • Choicesof all participantsaresavedandcanbeevaluated • Toidentifymostfrequentlychosenthesis, whichcanbecombinedtoscenarios • Introductionforthediscussionprocess on howmobility will developandwhichmeasuresarethebest in thiscontext Backround Context Content andfunctioning Resultsandanalysis Conclusion

17. Bibliography • GuidemapsConsortium2004 Successfultransportdecision-making: A projectmanagementandstakeholderengagementhandbook: Volume 1: Conceptsand Tools • Rupprecht Consult 2011 Guidelines: Developingandimplementing a sustainable urban mobility plan; Cologne Bibliography