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Congress and Fundraising

Congress and Fundraising. Opportunities to discuss course content. No office hours today or Wednesday Thursday 10-2. Learning Objectives. Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election .

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Congress and Fundraising

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  1. Congress and Fundraising

  2. Opportunities to discuss course content • No office hours today or Wednesday • Thursday 10-2

  3. Learning Objectives • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. • There is an L in Public, but no L in FECA

  4. The Senate

  5. The Dynamics • The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend • 23 Democratic Seats • 10 Republican Seats • Democrats have a 53-47 lead

  6. Where Were They?

  7. The Results

  8. What Explains the Results • Incumbency • Partisanship • Candidate Factors • Indiana • Missouri

  9. A Banner Year for Political Money • 1 Billion is SpentOutside Money is important, but not crucial

  10. Money isn’t Everything • Self Financed candidates still lose • Poor David Dewhurst

  11. The Vanishing Center • Moderates from Both Parties lost or Retired • Brown & Snow • Lieberman and Nelson • Replaced by more extreme candidates from both parties

  12. Looking ahead to 2014 • The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t • Democrats have More exposure • 7 seats are from states where Obama won

  13. Can the Democrats Expand • Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won • Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”

  14. Statehouse politics

  15. Governor’s Races • Footnotes in Presidential Years • 11 Elections • 5 Open Seats

  16. The Results • Incumbents went 6 for 6 • North Carolina was the Only Flip • GOP has a net gain of +1

  17. The Breakdown • Lincoln Chafee (RI) is the independent • 2 races in 2013 • Chris Christie (NJ) • Virginia

  18. State legislative elections

  19. Going into 2012 • Republicans Held 26 • Democrats Held 15 • Only 8 legislatures were split

  20. The Results • Dems have a pick up of +3, GOP +1 • Where Each party Did Well

  21. The Impact of the Election • Obama coattails did not reach the states • Battles over the Affordable Care Act emerged

  22. Campaign Finance

  23. The First Amendment protects things we might like

  24. And things we might not

  25. Money is a form of Political Speech • Buckley v. Valeo • At the federal level, fundraising is not capped • Neither are expenditures

  26. Money Rules the Day in Politics A History of Campaign Finance

  27. Buying the Presidency • You had to have personal wealth or • You needed a patron • Early laws

  28. FECA 1971 • Contribution and Spending Limits • Public Financing • The Checkoff Box (then and now)

  29. The 1972 election • Nixon’s separate fund • Exchanging donations for positions

  30. FECA 1974 • Goals • Enforcement • Buckley vs Valeo The Law did restrain Presidential Spending!

  31. The Need for More Legislation BCRA • Soft Money • The Role of PACS • Modernize the contribution amounts

  32. Current Contribution Limits

  33. The Rise and Fall of 527’s • 527’s in 2004 • Why the Decline in 2008 • The rise of 501(c)’s • Recession • Wisconsin Right to Life vs FEC • Money always finds a better outlet

  34. How to pay for it: Lessons learned from 2008 From Uncle Sugar or on your own?

  35. The Most Expensive in History

  36. Campaign Finance in 2008 • The First Billion Dollar Presidential Election • The Demise of Public Funding in the General Election • The Rise of the Internet as a fundraising tool • These produced a president who would spend ¾ of a billion for a job that pays 400,000.

  37. Overall Spending in 2008 Estimates are at $2.4 billion for the presidency $5.3 billion overall on 2008 Elections

  38. Mc Cain and Public Financing Runs as a reformer, with BCRA as his primary reform achievement McCain’s Decision to accept $84 million hindered his campaign He has 60% less money

  39. We Used to have public financing of Presidential Elections • This gave each candidate an equal amount to spend • President Obama breaks the trend • Obama raised more money than all other candidates combined • Obama raised more than the RNC and DNC combined.

  40. Obama has a huge Financial Advantage

  41. Public financing in 2012

  42. The History of Taking the Money • John Connolly and Steve Forbes • Bush in 2000 • Bush and Kerry in 2004 • John Edwards in 2008

  43. Government Money in the Primary Federal Money is available in primary and general election There are Eligibility Requirements, caps on spending, and caps on raising. 22 million from the G, and 55 million cap on spending

  44. Federal Money in the 2012 Primaries In 2012, no one accepts it Candidate strategy helped end this

  45. Public Funding for General Election • Each candidate could receive 91 million in public money • It doesn’t kick in until you are officially nominated • This money served to reduce campaign costs and remove any potential for corruption

  46. At the Presidential Level

  47. This is Hard Money

  48. The Future of Public Financing • There is no strategic reason to favor it • The Internet • The low federal limit • The Taboo was broken

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