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Water Supply Impact Study

Water Supply Impact Study. Michael Cullum, P.E., Director, Engineering St. Johns River Water Management District March 30, 2010. Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS). Primary Focus of the Meeting is the Hydrology and Hydrodynamic Modeling Effort General Process

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Water Supply Impact Study

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  1. Water Supply Impact Study Michael Cullum, P.E., Director, Engineering St. Johns River Water Management District March 30, 2010

  2. Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS) Primary Focus of the Meeting is the Hydrology and Hydrodynamic Modeling Effort General Process • HSPF - Watershed Runoff Model (USJ+others) • EFDC - River Hydrodynamic Model (MSJ/LSJ) • Environmental Analyses (Steps 3+)

  3. WSIS Scenarios In addition, the Uncertainty Analysis for the River EFDC runs will also examine the potential effects of channel dredging, wastewater reuse, and variable rates of Sea Level Rise.

  4. WSIS Scenarios 1995 Landuse Water Supply Planning Base Year Stable USJ Project Conditions Good Data set 1995-2006 Use for Calibration of Models Landuse changes are variable regardless of timeframe 1995 Landuse with withdrawals Provide worst case scenario, not likely Test robustness of the models

  5. WSIS Scenarios 1995 LU with Restoration Projects C1 Rediversion – 90% complete, ETC 2011 Three Forks WMA – 90% complete, ETC 2012 Fellsmere WMA – 20% complete, ETC 2014 Withdrawals not anticipated prior to 2020

  6. SJR at Christmas SJR at Cocoa C-1 Basin Three Forks Fellsmere

  7. WSIS Scenarios 2030 LU with Projects and (SLR) USJ Projects will be constructed Landuse Estimates are high by 10% 2010/2015 LU not available, can interpolate between 1995 & 2030 Include Conservative Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise is expected. More detailed evaluation in Uncertainty Analysis

  8. WSIS Scenarios In addition, the Uncertainty Analysis for the River EFDC runs will also examine the potential effects of channel dredging, wastewater reuse, and variable rates of Sea Level Rise.

  9. Differences from Phase 1 Scenarios • Added Projects to 1995 Landuse • Added 2030 Landuse • Changed Location of Withdrawals (55 MGD for Taylor Creek in USJ, 100 MGD in MSJ) • Phase 1 (Zero withdrawal Taylor Creek, All 155 MSJ) • Phase 1 Results • 4 cm single hour decrease in MSJ • 1 cm single hour decrease in LSJ

  10. Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS)March 29-31, 2010 • St. Johns River Watershed Hydrology • HSPF Model Description and Calibration • MSJ/LSJ River Hydrodynamics • MSJ/LSJ EFDC Description and Calibration • Uncertainty Analysis • Scenarios and H&H Results

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