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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization. Abdel Omran The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538. Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease. Charles Darwin Evolution of Species.

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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization

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  1. Epidemiologic Transition:Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization Abdel Omran The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538

  2. Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease Charles Darwin Evolution of Species

  3. The New NCD Epidemiology and Prevention • Systems approach • Disease Monitoring • Telecommunications Backbone • Deming approaches to Prevention

  4. Epidemiology • Psychiatric Epidemiologists • Diabetes Epidemiology • Cardiovascular Epidemiology • Cancer Epidemiology • Infectious Disease Epidemiology

  5. Instead at looking at individual diseases, we need to look at the patterns of diseases

  6. Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death. Mortality has no fixed upper limits. Thus if fertility approached its upper maximum, depopulation would still occur.

  7. During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...

  8. Age of Pestilence and Famine Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the mortality rate, little population growth and very low life expectancy

  9. Age of Receding Pandemics Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less frequent, a slow rise in degenerative diseases begin to appear

  10. The shifts in disease patterns in the 19th century were primarily related to changing SES.With the 20th Century more related with disease control activities independent of SES:e.g. Mexico, China

  11. Stages of the Epidemiologic Transition • Pestilence and Famine • Receding Pandemics • Degenerative and man-made diseases

  12. Epidemiologic Transition in Developing and DevelopedCountries

  13. 14 years 35 years

  14. Increasing Life Expectancy and Causes of Death 100 Other 80 60 Violence CHD 40 CA 20 Infection 0 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 Population Life Expectancy

  15. Infectious Diseases NCD Mortality Rates Epidemiologic Transition

  16. Death Rates for TB in England and Wales

  17. Death Rates for TB in England and Wales TB Bacillus Identified Chemotherapy BCG Vaccination

  18. Death Rates for Measles in Children in England and Wales

  19. Death Rates for Measles in Children in England and Wales Immunization begun

  20. NIDDM CHD Trauma CA Mortality Rates Epidemiologic Transition

  21. CHD Death RatesMales, aged 45-54

  22. Incidence of Stomach CAMales

  23. Breast Cancer IncidenceFemales

  24. Cirrhosis Death Rates,Males, aged 45-54

  25. Death Rates for StrokeMales, aged 45-54

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