Matteo Pedercini Millennium Institute, Washington D.C.

1. System Dynamics for Urban Sustainability Analysis Matteo Pedercini Millennium Institute, Washington D.C.

2. Overview Introduction to the Millennium Institute System Dynamics (SD) for urban planning T21 integrated SD model Prospective for urban application of T21 Conclusions

3. 1 SD for Urban Planning Millennium Institute on the Map T 21 Countries MI Partner MI Head Office M 3 Countries MEG Countries

4. 2 SD for Urban Planning What is System Dynamics?

5. 2 SD for Urban Planning Brief History

6. 2 SD for Urban Planning Brief History

7. 2 SD for Urban Planning A Current Example

8. 2 SD for Urban Planning Strengths of the Approach Major Delays Accumulation

9. 2 SD for Urban Planning Strengths of the Approach Input ??? Output

10. 3 Overview of T21 Focus of Threshold 21 • Support policy analysis on mid-long term development issues from an integrated perspective • Global, regional, national, (urban) challenges: • Food security and poverty • Climate Change and natural disasters • Resources, emissions and sustainability • Equity and vulnerability

11. 3 Overview of T21 T21 – Core Structure

12. 3 Overview of T21 Integration: the leading principle MI’s T21 applications are grounded in the principle of Integration: • Integration of social, economic, and environmental dimensions of development • Integration of knowledge and input from different sources and stakeholders • Integration of planning instruments across sectors, time horizons, and spatial scales

13. 3 Overview of T21 Example: National Strategic Plan Multiple goals in multiple sectors: • Macroeconomy • Agriculture • Industry • Poverty • Infrastructure • Education • Health Vision

14. 3 Overview of T21 Example: National Strategic Plan What policy impact/contribution from each? • Macroeconomy • Agriculture • Industry • Poverty • Infrastructure • Education • Health Vision

15. 3 Overview of T21 Example: National Strategic Plan What interactions across sectors? • Macroeconomy • Agriculture • Industry • Poverty • Infrastructure • Education • Health Vision

16. 3 Overview of T21 Example: National Strategic Plan How much draw on resource base? • Macroeconomy • Agriculture • Industry • Poverty • Infrastructure • Education • Health Vision and Sustainability Water Land Energy Pollution Debt

17. Stakeholder Fora 3 Overview of T21

18. Causal Mapping 3 Overview of T21

19. 4 T21 for Urban Planning Framework and Challenges • Scaling and adapting T21 to urban level • 100 Smarter cities – application with Huangshi and Xiamen • Treatment of spatial dimension • Data availability • Capacity development and institutionalization

20. 5 Conclusions Summary • T21 is an integrated simulation model that helps managing complexity in policy-making: • Based on system dynamics • Support open and inclusive planning • Facilitate the identification of effective policies • Integrates social, economic, and environmental factors

21. T21 – Urban Planning Thank You for Your Time www.millennium-institute.org mp@millennium-institute.org