Estimating electricity use “associated with the internet”: A cautionary tale

1. Estimating electricity use “associated with the internet”: A cautionary tale Jonathan Koomey, Ph.D. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory JGKoomey@lbl.gov, 510/486-5974, http://enduse.lbl.gov/ Talk is on the web at http://enduse.lbl.gov/shareddata/internetdatatalk000524.ppt Presented at the WRAP AP2 Forum Marines' Memorial Hotel, San Francisco, CA June 1, 2000

2. Beware false premises The fascinating impressiveness of rigorous mathematical analysis, with its atmosphere of precision and elegance, should not blind us to the defects of the premises that condition the whole process. There is perhaps no beguilement more insidious and dangerous than an elaborate and elegant mathematical process built upon unfortified premises. --T. C. Chamberlain--

3. Background • The Internet Begins with Coal, by Mark Mills, was published in Forbes in May 1999. • Results were widely cited. • Memo to EPA dated 9 December 1999 was our response (http://enduse.lbl.gov/Projects/InfoTech.html). • Congressional testimony given by Mills, Jay Hakes, and Joe Romm on 2 February 2000.

4. Mills’ analysis was flawed • Bad data: 1-2 kW PCs, 500 kW central offices, 250 kW mainframes, confusion of web sites and servers. • Bad boundary definitions: Just what part of a PC or a server is “associated with the internet”, anyway? • Overlooked systemic effects: information tech. can affect the efficiency of many processes.

5. Mills’ electricity “used by the internet”, corrected by LBNL TWh per year

6. Data needs • Equipment sales • Power use (W) by operating mode • Usage (Hours) by operating modes • Equipment stocks (estimate using sales and lifetimes, and/or assess using surveys) • Materials use, reuse, and recycling • Estimate energy use and emissions • Systemic effects (e.g., telecommuting, e-commerce)

7. Latest estimate of office equipment electricity use by sector in 1999 Network 4% Residential 12% Industrial 13% Total = 74 TWh Commercial 71% http://enduse.lbl.gov/Projects/InfoTech.html

8. Comparison of Estimates of Energy Use for Commercial Office Equipment in 1999 Printer Desktop/Portable/Server Computer Display/Terminal Annual Energy Use (TWh) Mainframe/Minicomputer Copier/Fax

9. Possible systemic effects of information technology (IT) • Commercial floor space • Reduced office space • Reduced warehouse space • Changes in travel patterns • More efficient use of energy and materials • IT + utility deregulation = energy service markets for Enron

10. Something unusual is going on

11. Conclusions • Misinformation seems to spread more quickly than truth. • Electricity used by computers and network equipment is at least a factor of eight smaller than Mills implies. • Understanding the systemic effects of information technology is critically important. • Credible data are urgently needed.

12. Join the network for energy, environment, efficiency, and the information economy (N4E) http://n4e.lbl.gov

13. LBNL best estimate of electricity use