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Indian Power Market Way forward Dr. Rajiv K Mishra Executive Director / PTC India Limited

Indian Power Market Way forward Dr. Rajiv K Mishra Executive Director / PTC India Limited. Power Market . Growth Review. Annual Load Duration Curve of India – 2012-13. The stated official demand is an understated demand as it does not include the regular load shedding. 18 -20 GW.

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Indian Power Market Way forward Dr. Rajiv K Mishra Executive Director / PTC India Limited

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  1. Indian Power Market Way forward Dr. Rajiv K Mishra Executive Director / PTC India Limited

  2. Power Market Growth Review

  3. Annual Load Duration Curve of India – 2012-13 The stated official demand is an understated demand as it does not include the regular load shedding. 18 -20 GW 2920 hrs (8X365) Peak demand of ~ 18 to 20 GW (13.7 GW – 11.75 GW) exists for 2921 (8x365)hrs 8760 Source: NLDC • National load duration curve is relatively flat, with the demand varying in a relatively narrow range between 85 GW and 138 GW. • Even considering an 8 hour average peaking requirement (which was done by CERC in framing draft regulations on peaking power), the overall peaking requirement is of the order of 18 to 20 GW. • 223 GW of installed capacity caters to peak demand of nearly 138 GW and base load of ~ 120GW thereby low PLF of power plants due to fuel shortage, lower PLF from renewable sources and also load shaving. 3

  4. Generation Efficiency Trends • Coal based power plants PLFs have gone down from 78% in 2008-09 to 69% in 2012-13 primarily on account of coal shortage in the country. During the monsoon period (June-Aug), on national level the PLF falls to 60% on account of both shortage of fuel and scheduled annual maintenance. • Gas based plants have low PLF on account of decreasing supply of fuel from KG-D6 gas basin which has led to stranding of the commissioned assets. High costs of imported gas has not helped their case. • For Hydro, the average annual PLF varies between 30-40% and it peaks to almost 45%-50% during the monsoon period (July/August/September). Source: CEA All India Hydro PLF values not available for these 2 years

  5. Key Takeaways • Coal continues to be the dominant source of energy in the country. The share has marginally increased from a share of 52% in 2008-09 to 58% in 2012-13. However, due to issues related to fuel shortages some of the IPPs recently commissioned power plants are operating at very low PLF (even 50%); • The hydro capacity has remained stagnant in the last five years mainly due to developmental issues and environmental clearances; • Coal and gas based power plants PLFs have gone down significantly primarily on account of coal and gas shortage in the country. • Gas based plants have low PLF on account of decreasing supply of fuel from KGD-6 gas basin which has led to stranding of the commissioned assets; • Going ahead coal will continue to be the main source of generation in absence of any other alternative; • Demand projected officially is a shaved demand. Some of the States practically show no variation between Peak and Off-Peak period due to huge load shedding;

  6. Capacity Expansion underway to alleviate congestion Mainpuri-Hapur(765 kV) - March 2015, Mainpuri– Greater Noida (765 kV) - July 2015 Bara-Mainpuri (765 kV) – March 2015 FLOWGATES Rangpo-Kishenganj400 kV - Nov 2013 Alipurduar – Salakati (220 kV) - Jan 2015 Alipurduar-Bangaigaon (400 kV) - Jan 2015 Alipurduar-Tala (400 kV) - Jan 2015 Alipurduar-Puntsangchu (Bhutan) (400 kV) - Jan 2015 AlipurDuar – Siliguri (400 kV) - Jan 2015 Gaya-Dumka (400 kV) - Nov 2018 Maithon-Dumka (400 kV) - Oct 2018 Maithon-Durgapur (400 kV) Gaya-Nabinagar (400 kV) - Nov 2015 Purulia-Ranchi (400 kV), - Dec 2015 Jamshedpur – Chaibasa (400 kV) -Nov 2017 Jamshedpur-Adhunik Power (400 kV) - Mar 2013 Jaipur-Gwalior (765 kV) - Mar 2014 Upgradation of Agra-Gwalior from (400 kV to 765 kV) - Jun 2013 Raipur-Wardha(765 kV) - Dec 2013/Jan 2014 Vijaywada-Nellore (400 kV) - Mar 2014 Nellore-Chennai (400 kV) - Mar 2017 Almaty-Thiruvallem (400 kV) - Oct 2017 Almaty-SV Chatram (400 kV) -This year Almaty-Chennai JV (400 kV) - Oct 2014

  7. Capacity expansion underway to alleviate congestion • PGCIL has proceeded with the execution of 11 high capacity power transmission corridors • PGCIL is well funded to carry out its expansion plans Source: PGCIL

  8. Government Initiatives • Private Sector Allowed • 100% FDI • Distribution Privatization in Odisha • Mega Power Policy • PTC formation • Competitive bidding • 2006 • 1991 • 1992-97 • 1995-96 • 1997 • 1998-99 • 2003 • Projects given fast clearances • Foreign Investors invited aggressively • CEA clearance exempted for thermal projects upto 1000 MW • Electricity Act – 2003 • Generation Delicensed • Open Access • 2006 • 2007 • 2008 • 2010 • 2011 • Concept of Ultra Mega Power introduced • Distribution Franchisee Concept introduced • R-APDRP • Shunglu committee Report on Distribution Reforms • APTEL Judgement on Suo-moto determination of tariffs by SERCs R-APDRP: Restructured Accelerated Power Development & Reform Program, APTEL: Appellate Tribunal for Electricity, SERC: State Electricity Regulatory Commission

  9. Pacing Reforms • Revised bidding document with Fuel as pass through under finalization • Focus shifts to operational efficiencies • APTEL Directs: • Issue of Tariff Orders before April 1 • Suo Moto Tariff order by April 30 • Mechanism for Fuel Cost Adjustment Govt. approves imported coal pass through in PPAs for 78 GW FRP approved. Already being implemented in UP, TN, Rajasthan and Haryana Govt. finalizes 60 GW of projects for Coal Supply Agreements Regulator allows compensatory tariff for mispriced PPA projects Coal Block allocation resumes: MoC allocates 14 coal blocks to govt. companies Case I Bids in UP, TN, Rajasthan – rationality in bids • MOC reverses its decision to deallocate captive coal of NTPC • Freeze of fresh coal block allocation continues Nearly all Distribution Utilities hike end user tariffs APTEL: Appellate Tribunal for Electricity, MOC: Ministry of Coal, FRP: Financial Restructuring Package, PPA: Power Purchase Agreement

  10. Coal Demand Supply Mismatch Source: Ministry of Coal, Research Reports CCEA has approved pass through of imported Coal Costs for the quantity for which Coal India is not able to supply as per the LOA

  11. Tariff Increase in States

  12. Typical Supply Curve ST Prices: • The above shows a typical supply curve for variable cost. • Short Term tariff is discovered where the demand cuts the above supply curve. The tariff of that marginal plant is considered as Market Clearing Price in short run (SRMC)

  13. Short Term Trading Market

  14. The Way Forward • Establishing a “Center for excellence for Market Development” under MOP • Amendment in Act 2003 – segregation of wire and supply business • Provision of Aggregation – bulk virtual distribution company • Forecasting and despatching on commercial basis • Market Information system – as unified approach • Open access and Demand Side Management – a drive on war footing level • Regulatory changes to drive tariff revisions

  15. Thank You

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