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Climate adaptation and complexity (my personal Top 5)

Climate adaptation and complexity (my personal Top 5). Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby. VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June 2010. Presentation. Climate Change Adaptation is complex? Top 5: Accepting complexity The power of practice

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Climate adaptation and complexity (my personal Top 5)

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  1. Climate adaptation and complexity(my personal Top 5) Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June 2010

  2. Presentation • Climate Change Adaptation is complex? • Top 5: • Accepting complexity • The power of practice • Making perceptions explicit • The importance of history • Story telling • Conclusions

  3. Climate Change Adaptation • Adaptation is not new: social and natural systems have always adapted to change • New: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years) • Complex?

  4. 2100 Danger 2010 Time Climate Change Bifurcation Point

  5. Arnhem Bifurcation point Nijmegen

  6. Complexity • There are many uncertainties: • Is there a bifurcation point? • If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation point or did we already pass it? • What measures do we have to take and what will be the effect? • There are many people involved with different opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians & citizens) • Etc.

  7. 1: Accept complexity It makes life simpler

  8. Paradox When we accept that we might fail, the probability of success will increase "Conceiving a safety without risk is like seeking love without courting the danger of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988)

  9. 2. The Power of Practice • Complex processes can only be dealt with in practice • Prudence: develop practical knowledge

  10. Theory Practice

  11. Example: maintenance

  12. 3. Making perceptions explicit • People have different perceptions both about problem and solutions (→ complexity) • Many projects fail because people involved pre-assume that other people have the same perception as they have • Ask: • What do you think the problem is? • What is your role? • What is your responsibility?

  13. Let’s adapt • Peak rain and flooding • Droughts – water shortage • Heat Island effect • Wind • Connection to other aspects of the urban environment (traffic, quality of housing, facilities, social safety, etc.)

  14. Dep of real estate City planning department Dep of street & traffic Citizens Organisations Private developers Schools Etcetera

  15. Perceptions become explicit when you visit concrete projects

  16. 4. The Importance of History In complex processes history does not fade away

  17. Planning like this does not work for complex processes

  18. Complex processes: “You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future”

  19. Golden Age

  20. Industrial Revolution

  21. Post war restoration

  22. Crisis and new beginning

  23. 5. Story telling

  24. Spatial organisation directs Water Water directs spatial organisation

  25. Information Knowledge

  26. Theoretical concept 1 Story telling Theoretical concept 5 Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 4 Generic Theoretical concept 3 Narrative Story 1 Story 9 Story 5 Specific Story 7 Story 2 Story 6 Story n Story 3 Story 4 Story 8

  27. A good narrative • A story with a head, a tail and a punch line • Constructed out of the languages that people used to tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla) • It is specific, but also includes generic elements • Is recognised by the people that brought in the stories • New scientific knowledge is connected to it • Decision makers cannot ignore it • Often: it includes a metaphor

  28. Residential area Lewenborg

  29. Theoretical concept 1 Story telling Theoretical concept 5 Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 4 Generic Theoretical concept 3 Narrative about ponds, litter and social safety Story 1 Story 9 Story 5 Specific Story 7 Story 2 Story 6 Story n Story 3 Story 4 Story 8

  30. Conclusions • When it is complex, accept that it is complex • Real integration is only possible in practice, so act as close to practice as possible and appreciate practitioners • Ask people involved specifically about their perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.) • You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future: history will not fade away • Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical concepts: constructing narratives

  31. Thanks for your attention …

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