Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future

1. Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future Professor Deliang Chen (陳德亮) ICSU Executive Director Rcg.gvc.gu.se/dc National Central University, Taipei, 24 November, 2010

2. Outline • Earth System Science (ESS) • Global Change and Global Environnemental Changes: an example from China • ICSU’s perspective on the evolution of the international initiatives/programmes in Global Change research • Future of Earth System Science

3. Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation Earth System Science Definitions of ESS • 1. Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences) • 2. Extended climate science • atmosphere and ocean plus … • hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology … • Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them • 3. The science of the integrated earth system • The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth • Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics • Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, … • 4. Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development

4. Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity……….. Reid & Miller (1989) Vitousek (1994) What is Global Change? • Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System • Much more than climate change • Socio-economic as well as biophysical For example, changes in:

5. U.S. Bureau of the Census Mackenzie et al (2002) Richards (1991), WRI (1990) NOAA FAO What is Global Environmental Change? For example, changes in: • Nitrogen fixation • Temperature • Biodiversity……….. • Atmosphere composition • Population • N in the coastal zone • Forest cover • Fisheries exploitation

6. CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity ….. 1900 1950 2000 ”the great acceleration of the human entreprise”, 2010-2020 The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene From: Steffen et al. 2004

7. An Example from China Gong, D.-Y., C.-H. Ho, D. Chen, Y. Qian, Y.-S. Choi, and J. Kim, 2007: Weekly cycle of aerosol-meteorology interaction over China, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, D22202, doi:10.1029/2007JD008888. Gong et al., J.G.R., 2006; 2007

8. Anomalies of temperature from Sunday through Saturday. 29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are  1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

9. Anomalous frequency of light rains from Sunday through Saturday. P 5mm/day, 29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are  1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

10. Globe: Cities with more than 100,000 people in 1997 China: 448 with population >0.5 million, 174 with population >1 million. Most in East China. By 2003 Source: United Nations Statistics Division

11. PM10 PM10, JJA, 2001-2006. ‘’ : PM10 stations, ‘’: R2 grids, ‘O’: radio-sounding temperature stations

12. Radio-sounding T, R2 Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 15 radiosonde observations. Unit: C. 1100UTC. Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 29 R2 grids. Unit: C. Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68

13. Anomaly of the daily mean vertical air velocity (ω) in the lower troposphere between 925 and 850 hPa levels at 29 R2 grids during 2001-2005.

14. Radio-sounding Anomaly of the horizontal wind velocity in lower troposphere between 925 and 850hPa levels, shown as the average from radiosonde observations. Error bars are  1 standard error about the sample mean. 1100UTC, data availability >90%. Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68

15. Climate change implication… 1956-2005. Whole China. JJA. 0.05 level

16. Climate implication… Regional mean trends [<10mm/day]: 1956-05: -1.7days/10yr [～20％] 1980-05: -2.4days/10yr, 0.01 level Linear trend of the number of light rain days during the time period 1956-2005. Unit: days/10yr. JJA.

17. Conclusion: • There are significant, consistent weekly cycles in meteorological variables in east China during summer, most likely connected to the weekly cycle of air pollution, and a result of aerosol-atmosphere interaction. • The significant decreasing of light rains is likely related to the enhanced human activities through the increasing air pollution.

18. Researching the Earth system Our approach to understanding the Earth System has been to cut the “big picture” into small pieces. Some of the pieces lack detail, others are missing entirely - but…

19. Researching the Earth system Earth System Science and sustainable development need a systemic approach - someone needs to put together the puzzle!

20. ICSU • Founded in 1931, based on two earlier bodies known as the International Association of Academies (IAA; 1899-1914) and the International Research Council (IRC; 1919-1931) • 121National Members (representing 141 countries/regions), and 30 International Scientific Union Members • 19 Interdisciplinary Bodies (e.g. World Climate Research Programme: WCRP) • Unique worldwide access to intellectual resources

21. ICSU initiated the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957-1958

23. ICSU GEC programmes IHDP International Human Dimensions Programme International Programme of Biodiversity Science WCRP World Climate ResearchProgramme DIVERSITAS IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

24. Global Environmental Change (GEC) Research 1980: WCRP 1987: IGBP 1996: IHDP 2002: DIVERSITAS Earth System Science Partnership (2001)

25. GEC Programme Reviews Reviews Common recommendations IHDP: 2006 ESSP: 2008 IGBP: 2009 WCRP: 2009 DIVERSITAS: tba Priority setting Effectiveness Integrated research framework

26. GLP GCOS Etc... Etc... Etc... Etc... CLIVAR LOICZ IHOPE bioSERVICES GTOS Institutional evolution bioSUSTAINABILITY GEWEX AIMES ESG GEO BON GOOS ESSP GCP WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS IRDR GWSP GECHH PECS START GECAFS

27. Three Decades of Global Change Research • Extraordinary progress in understanding the Earth System and consequences of human action • Global environmental change outpacing response • Current path is unsustainable • Sound basis for actions to mitigate and adapt to global change Need far more information and understanding to solve the problem that global environmental change poses for our societies

28. Integrated Earth System Science (growing capability of predicting the Earth system implications of anthropenic change) Scientific evolution of convergence towards integrated Earth system science

29. Visioning Process Goal: To engage the scientific community to explore options and propose steps to implement a holistic strategy for Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs

30. Earth System Visioning Process

31. Three Step Process • Online Consultation (Aug 2009) • 1,016 registered users from 85 countries • 323 research questions posted

32. Three Step Process • Visioning Earth System research meeting (Sept 2009) • Early career & senior scientists • Science-policy experts • Funders • GEC programs • ICSU and ISSC

33. Three Step Process Review Draft Dec 2009 to Mar 2010 • 46 Institutions • 202 Individuals

34. Three Step Process Open Forum Institutional Support Meeting

35. Three Step Process Transition Meeting

36. Future outlook

37. A new framework is needed Mobilize international global change scientific community around an unprecedented decade of focused and intensive research Human Impacts on System Earth System Function Impacts of Global Change on People Human Responses Global Sustainability Research

38. Transition

39. Grand Challenge #1: Forecasting Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people

40. Grand Challenge #2: Observations Develop the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change

41. Grand Challenge #3: Thresholds Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change

42. Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change (Lenton et al, 2008)

43. Grand Challenge #4: Responses Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.

44. Grand Challenge #5: Innovation Encourage innovation (coupled with sound mechanisms for evaluation) in developing responses to achieve global sustainability

45. Future Global Change Research • Support integrated science • Ensure effective policy impact and communications • Support stakeholder engagement, trans-disciplinary research approaches and co-production of knowledge • Sufficient long-term research funding • Foster collaborative research networks that are truly global in scope

46. A new 10 year initiative • Deliver at global and regional scales the knowledge that societies need to effectively respond to global change while meeting economic and social goals; • Coordinate and focus international scientific research to address the “Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability;” • Engage a new generation of researchers in the social, economic, natural, health, and engineering sciences in global sustainability research.

47. Launching the Initiative