FIGARO WP7 Economic Assessment and Policy Guidelines

1. FIGARO WP7 Economic Assessment and Policy Guidelines Delphi results and T7.6 workplan Rome, January 2015

2. Stated goals for T7.6 Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Objectives • to explore the viability of PI in a number of European agricultural regions (linkages with T2.3) – Delphi Study • to explore the the outcome of the FIGARO PI assessment (from T7.2 to T7.5 and linkages with T2.1) through a stakeholder consultation (EU, Case study level)

3. Background T2.3 T7.1 • LitteratureReview • DelphiStudy DRIVING FORCES T2.2 T7.2 POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIGARO IT • Identification of Assessmenttools • Collection of agro-economic DATA from experimentalsites ASSESSMENT ? T7.6 • Stakeholder consultationthrough a surveyand a meeting to validate results of previoustasks SWOT and POLICY GUIDELINES Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

4. BackgroundCBA (from T7.1 to T7.5 and linkages with T2.1) Legend: r = discount rate; t = time horizon; ∂NB = net beefit differences between the FIGARO PI with the TRADITIONAL system A Common Agro-economic protocol for sharing DATA trough the FIGARO platform has been planned yet. Time is flowing down and maybe we need information before the platform start working!!!!! • DATA NEEDED • technical life of the equipment • cost of the eiquipment, • labor uses for the installation and disintallation of the equipment • dailyirrigation timing and water applied for the comparing technologies • PROPOSALS • Partners from experimental sites directly share information already available with WP7 partners. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

5. Stated goals for T7.6 Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Objectives • to explore the viability of PI in a number of European agricultural regions (linkages with T2.3) – Delphi Study • to explore the the outcome of the FIGARO PI assessment (from T7.1 to T7.5 and linkages with T2.1) through a stakeholder consultation (EU, Case study level)

6. Delphi Study Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Methodology 1st Step: selection of factor limiting/fostering the uptake of PI through a survey in the experimental site regions 2nd Step: presenting back to respondents results from the first round renewing the survey Target respondents Agronomists, Water Authority representatives

7. Delphi Study: theoretical framework Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity List of factors conditioning the adoption of PI 1. Environmental Sphere: water availability (Sauer et al.,2010), land quality (Fridgen et al.,2000; Redulla et al., 2002), etc. 2. Regulatory Sphere: subsidies (Bjornlund et al., 2009; Morales et al. 2011) , water pricing policies (Miranowski, 2005), enforcement and monitoring capacity (Molle, 2008), etc. 3. Farm Sphere: farmer’s networks (Boyd et al., 2000), farmer’s skills (Nash et al., 2009; Nikkila et al., 2010), etc.

8. Delphi Study: theoretical framework OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO Our elaboration on Miranowski (1993) Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Quasi rent function for a land quality augmenting by comparing traditional (∏b) and modern (∏a) irrigation technologies The adoption of modern irrigation technologies has been mainly found to: increase in regions with higher temperatures, decrease with land quality augmenting (soil texture and orography), increase with increasing volumetric tariffs (when they occurs), increase with increasing costs of substituting inputs (labor and energy), increase with increasing output prices (Miranowski, 1993)

9. Delphi Study: theoretical framework PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO Quasi rent function for a land quality augmenting by comparing traditional (∏b) and modern (∏a) irrigation technologies The adoption of modern irrigation technologies has been mainly found to: • increase in regions with higher temperatures, • decrease with land quality augmenting (soil texture and orography), • increase with increasing volumetric tariffs (when they occurs), • increase with increasing costs of substituting inputs (labor and energy), • increase with increasing output prices (Miranowski, 1993) Our elaboration on Miranowski (1993) Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

10. Delphi Study: theoretical framework REALISTIC SCENARIO Our elaboration on Miranowski (1993) Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Quasi rent function for a land quality augmenting by comparing traditional (∏b) and modern (∏a) irrigation technologies The adoption of modern irrigation technologies has been mainly found to: increase in regions with higher temperatures, decrease with land quality augmenting (soil texture and orography), increase with increasing volumetric tariffs (when they occurs), increase with increasing costs of substituting inputs (labor and energy), increase with increasing output prices (Miranowski, 1993)

11. Delphi Study: results General Information Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

12. Delphi Study: results Main environmental factors conditioning the adoption of PI in South European (SER – Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy) and North European (NER - Denmark) regions Legend:  – Fostering the adoption of PI;  – Limiting the adoption of PI; X – Not relevant for the adoption of PI; *, ** – respectively, 0.95 and 0.99 probabilities that factors impact differently among SER and NER regions in conditioning PI adoption. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

13. Delphi Study: results Main regulatory factors conditioning the adoption of PI in South European (SER – Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy) and North European (NER - Denmark) regions Legend:  – Fostering the adoption of PI;  – Limiting the adoption of PI; X – Not relevant for the adoption of PI; *, ** – respectively, 0.95 and 0.99 probabilities that factors impact differently among SER and NER regions in conditioning PI adoption. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

14. Delphi Study: results Main farmer’s characteristics conditioning the adoption of PI in South European (SER) and North European (NER) regions Legend:  – Fostering the adoption of PI;  – Limiting the adoption of PI; X – Not relevant for the adoption of PI; *, ** – respectively, 0.95 and 0.99 probabilities that factors impact differently among SER and NER regions in conditioning PI adoption. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

15. Delphi Study: results SWOT – SOR Analysis Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

16. Delphi Study: results SWOT – SOR Analysis Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

17. Delphi Study: results SWOT – SOR Analysis Improving the current level of regulatory clearing and the quality of the information available to local authorities Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

18. Delphi Study: concluding remarks CONVERGENCES OF RESPONSES: The adoption of PI is conditioned by the land water holding capacity, by the orography, and by the energy costs for irrigation. DIVERGENCES OF RESPONSES: Limitation about farm characteristics: farm size seems to negativelly condition the adoption of PI in the Denmark cas study region as farmers need to save labor rather than water, while farmer’s financial capacity and skills are considered the main limitation for most of the other case study regions. Expected environmental impact: in the Denmarck case study region the adoption of PI is mainly driven by the need to reduce nutrient leacing while the other case stidy regions by the need increase water use efficiency. Public intervention: Infrastructural investments, direct subsidies and advisory services are seen the most relevant driving forces for the adoption in most of the souther regions while the imposition of quality standards along the agrifood chain is addressed for the Denmarck case study region. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

19. Stated goals T7.6: planning the next Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity Objectives • to explore the viability of PI in a number of European agricultural regions (linkages with T2.3) • to explore the the outcome of the FIGARO PI assessment (from task 7.1 to task 7.5) through a stakeholder consultation (EU, Case study level)

20. T7.6: planning the next synthesis of assessment results and inventory of policy measures potentially supporting its diffusion Planning/Conducting a new survey based on assessment results and on the inventory of policy measures from the Delphi Planning a meeting with the stakeholders participating at the survey and with case study stakeholder to validate results and get comments Report on SWOT and policy guidelines based on previous steps collection of structured reaction about SWOT and suitability of related policy measures from the stakeholder through a questionnaire provided at open field days and training workshops (M6, M17, M36) ? please advise us if something is planned for M36 Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

21. T7.6: planning the next • synthesis of assessment results and inventory of policy measures potentially supporting its diffusion INPUT NEEDED • LITTERATURE REVIEW and DELPHI SURVEY (OK) • first results of PERFORMANCE INDICATORS in test sites (when will they be available?) • POPOSAL(if it is not yet possible to share data through the platform) • Partners from experimental sites directly share information already available with WP7 partners. • WP7 partners (UNIBO leading) carry out a survey intended to end users which are already using DSS. [linkages with T10.3] ? Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

22. T7.6: planning the next • synthesis of assessment results and inventory of policy measures potentially supporting its diffusion • POPOSAL for further investigating the economic viability of PI- QUESTIONNAIRES FOR END USERS ALREADY APPLYING PI • THE OBJECTIVE IS TO MINIMIZE EXTRA-EFFORTS for the benefit of the whole consortium • UNIBO set up an online questionnaires and invitation letters (we can provide also translation in spanish, portughese, greeck and italian languages) • We need contacts and persons introducing questionnaires in those countries where the concept of PI is already applied. Is there anybody capable to provide it? • UNIBO collect questionnaires, process information, include contributing partners in any scientific/reporting documents. • EXPECTED IMPACT • Extending target stakeholders from field test partners to other PI users will enable the consortium to collect enough information to verify the usability of the FIGARO innovation (linkages with T10.3) • CONSEQUENCES • We need to shrink the expected time for T7.6b (M26-M36)in order to include this additional survey Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

23. Stated goals T7.6: planning the next Survey intended to regional agricultural policy representatives, stakeholder from the agri-food chain (M26-M36) • UNIBO will provide first draft questionnaires among task partners and deliver the final version. • UNIBO will ask for the address of regional representative potentially interested for participating at the survey for each site test regions + EU-level representatives (better 2 or more). • UNIBO will deliver questionnaires and provide first draft results to be shared with the TASK team. • UNIBO will deliver an intermediate version of results asking for comments from participants. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

24. T7.6: planning the next Planning a meeting with the stakeholders participating at the survey + case study stakeholders (M36-M42) Our proposal is to organize a meeting hosting regional agricultural policy representatives (the ones involved in the previous survey) just after the 3rd irrigation season and test sites representatives in which we will have: A brief presentation of results from site tests A brief presentation of a final SWOT analysis for the adoption of PI followed by (UNIBO, ___) A brief presentationofresultsofquestinnaires in M17 & 36 A structureddiscussionabout the practicabilityof policy measuresaddressing FPI. Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

25. T7.6: planning the next Report on SWOT and policy guidelines based on previous steps (M44) this analysis could be exploited for setting an indoor policy for the indentification of target users and marketing strategies - linkages with the EXPLOITATION PLAN (T10.4) Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity • Summary of SWOT etc… • Types of issues addressed by policy • single farm • infrastructure • Instruments • Regulation/Subsidies/taxes • Coordination mechanisms/contracts/chain connections • … • Specific mechanisms • Addressees • Cross compliance • … • Implementability • Framework legal conditions • Consistency with CAP, WFD, Energy policy • Acceptability • Sequencing

26. References Boyd, C., Turton, C., Hatibu, N., Mahoo, H.F., Lazaro, E., Rwehumbiza, F.B., Okubal, A.P., Makumbib, M., 2000. The Contribution of Soil and Water Conservation to Sustainable Livelihoods in Semi-Arid Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural Research and Extension Network. Network Paper N° 102. Bjornlund, H., Nicol, L., Klien, L., 2009. The adoption of improved irrigation technology and management practices: a study of two irrigation districts in Alberta, Canada. Agric. Water Manage. 96, 121–131. Morales, L.C., Duchin, F., 2011. Policies and Technologies for a Sustainable Use of Water in Mexico: A Scenario Analysis. Economic Systems Research 23(4), 387-407. Nash, E., Korduan, P., Bill, R., 2009. Applications of open geospatial web services in precision agriculture: a review. Precision Agriculture 10 (6), 546–560. Nikkil , R., Seilonen, I., Koskinenet, K., 2010. Software architecture for farm manage- ment information systems in precision agriculture. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 70 (2), 328–336. Fridgen, J., Fraisse, C., Kitchen, N., Sudduth, K. (2000). Delineation and analysis of site specific management zones. 2nd Int Conf on Geospatial Inf in Agr and Forestry. Florida Jan. 10-12. Miranowski, John A. Agricultural and environmental resource economics. Eds. Gerald A. Carlson, and David Zilberman. Oxford University Press, 1993. Molle F., 2008. Can water pricing policies regulate irrigation use? Paper presented to the 13th World water Congress, 1-4 September 2008, Montpellier, France. Redulla C. A., Davenport J. R., Evans R. G., Hattendorf M. J., Alva A.K Boydston., R. A. (2002). Relating potato yield and quality to field scale variability in soil characteristics. Amer. J. Potato Res. 79(5): 317-323. Sauer, Timm, et al. "Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation." Water Resources Research 46.6 (2010). Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity

27. Delphi Study: concluding remarks An in-depth understanding of the key limitation of local agriculture trough the adoption of PI is of particular interest in the view of climate change and environmental and agricultural policy reforms. EXPECTED EFFECTS of climate change on production: In northern Europe climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. In Southern Europe the possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields and higher yield variability. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe (Olesen and Bindi, 2002; AEA, 2007). The new CAP reform is explicitly addressing this aspect dedicating funding for providing advisory weather services and training and for supporting investments to adapt farm structures and production methods (EC, 2013). Flexible and precIse irriGation plAtform to improve faRm scale water prOductivity