Childlessness trends, religious trends: are they associated?

1. Childlessness trends, religious trends: are they associated? Marion BurkimsherAffiliated to the University of Lausanne

4. Puzzles… The average number of children of women born in 1960 recorded in the Swiss census of 2000 was 1.73. But the mean TFR for the period 1980-1999 was 1.53! Why the difference? In Georgia young people are significantly more religious than older people: how unusual is this pattern? In Switzerland around 20% of women aged 40 are childless. But of those who have ‘no religion’, the proportion is 38%, whereas for the Orthodox/evangelicals the proportion is only 12% In Georgia, the association is the opposite: religious women are more likely to be childless (and more highly educated)

5. Structure of presentation • Childlessness trends: • Data sources • Summary of trends • Religious trends • Data sources • Summary of trends • Association of childlessness and religiosity • Across Europe • In Switzerland and Georgia • Further work

6. Published paper on religious trends: Burkimsher, Marion. 2014. Is Religious Attendance Bottoming Out? An Examination of Current Trends Across Europe. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 53.2 (2014): 432-445. Paper at the “revise and resubmit” stage: Burkimsher, Marion. 2014? Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates. Demographic Research.

7. Structure of presentation • Childlessness trends: • Data sources • Summary of trends • Religious trends • Data sources • Summary of trends • Association of childlessness and religiosity • Across Europe • In Switzerland and Georgia • Further work

8. The challenge of assessing childlessness We cannot know the proportion of women who will end up childless until they are approaching the end of their reproductive life; aged 45-50. For men it is even harder… Period measures of fertility (eg. the Total Fertility Rate, TFR) are deflated because of ongoing postponement in age at first birth. We need an assessment of the cohort fertility rate Childlessness is the complement of the first birth fertility rate (=1-TFR1). But for that we need births by biological birth order, which is not recorded (until recently) in many countries Migration (often affecting young adults in their prime reproductive ages) means that tracking vital statistics (births) within the country may not produce an accurate assessment of childlessness

9. Data sources Vital statistics: as provided by the national statistical offices and complied into the Human Fertility Database (http://www.humanfertility.org); includes fertility rates by age and cohort by each year. Data up to 2010, 15 countries > Projection of cohort TFR1 calculated by the method proposed by Myrskylä, Goldstein and Cheng (2013). The 5 year trend for each age-specific rate is extrapolated for a further 5 years, then the rate is frozen (up to cohort born 1980) Swiss census of 2000: question on number of own children European Social Survey: Wave 3 in 2006 asked question on number of own children

10. Projected rate of childlessness: declining Data source: HFD

11. Projected rate of childlessness: stability Data source: HFD

12. Projected rate of childlessness: increase Data source: HFD

13. Structure of presentation • Childlessness trends: • Data sources • Summary of trends • Religious trends • Data sources • Summary of trends • Association of childlessness and religiosity • Across Europe • In Switzerland and Georgia • Further work

14. The challenge of assessing religiosity Religiosity can be assessed in various ways: affiliation, attendance (prayer, belief, importance/relevance to life)… Any dimension of religiosity can change for an individual over time (whereas childlessness can only change once!) Religiosity is self-reported, so open to social norms in reporting. Often someone other than the individual completes the questionnaire / census form Religiosity can be associated with different behaviours and social-demographic characteristics in different ways, in different places and at different times

15. Data on religiosity European Social Survey and World/European Values Survey: attendance and affiliation Swiss census of 2000: affiliation Swiss Household Panel: affiliation, attendance (prayer) Generations and Gender Survey (Georgia): attendance (and affiliation)

16. 1. Cohort differentials in religious attendance as in 2012 (mostly) …but are the differences caused by age effects (people becoming more religious as they get older…)?

17. Inter-cohort comparison of religious attendance: decline Data source: ESS 2012, Austria ESS 2010

18. Inter-cohort comparison of religious attendance: stability Data source: ESS 2012

19. Inter-cohort comparison of religious attendance: growth Data source: GGS 2006

20. 2. Religious attendance of a cohort over time > Trends in religious attendance of the Baby Boom cohort (born 1950-1981) from 1990-2012 …but are the changes caused by period effects (secularisation / revival) or age effects?

21. Trends in attendance rates of 1950-1981 cohort: decline Data sources: WVS, EVS, ESS

22. Trends in attendance rates of 1950-1981 cohort: stability Data sources: WVS, EVS, ESS

23. Trends in attendance rates of 1950-1981 cohort: growth Data sources: WVS, EVS, ESS, GGS

24. 3. Individual flux in religiosity

25. Recoding religious attendance (…any religion)

26. Recoding religious affiliation

27. Year-on-year change in religious attendance Data source: SHP 1999-2009

28. Individual flux in religious attendance 1999-2009 Respondents with data in >1 wave (N=9363) Data source: SHP 1999-2009

29. Comments The proportion of respondents who have stayed at the same level of religious attendance across all waves is 39% (for all respondents who have valid responses for >1 year) The proportion of respondents who have changed level of attendance at some stage is 61% The proportion of respondents who have at some time been regular attenders is 36% - cf. to annual average attendance rate of ~24% (includes respondents with only 1 wave of data) The proportion of respondents who at some stage have been ‘never’ attenders is 62%

30. Change in individual affiliation 2004 to 2009 Respondents with valid data in 2004 AND 2009 92% kept same affiliation (N=4690) Data source: SHP 1999-2009

31. Comments Religious affiliation is considerably more stable than level of attendance (or frequency of prayer) The main trend has been towards non-affiliation, slightly more marked amongst Catholics

32. Structure of presentation • Childlessness trends: • Data sources • Summary of trends • Religious trends • Data sources • Summary of trends • Association of childlessness and religiosity • Across Europe • In Switzerland and Georgia • Further work

33. Childless proportion by religiosity: M&W aged 25-59ordered by largest differentials Countries without birth order-specific data in HFD in ( ) Data source: ESS 2006

34. Primary determinants of childlessness in Switzerland Data source: SHP biographical data

35. Primary determinants of singleness in Switzerland Data source: SHP biographical data

36. Women who were childless, by religion: Switzerland 38% Data source: Swiss census 2000

37. Women who were childless, by religious attendance: Georgia Data source: GGS 2006

38. Structure of presentation • Childlessness trends: • Data sources • Summary of trends • Religious trends • Data sources • Summary of trends • Association of childlessness and religiosity • Across Europe • In Switzerland and Georgia • Further work

39. Burning questions 1: What are the characteristics of people who change their level of religious involvement (to become more or less religiously involved)? Compare Switzerland and Georgia…. Many factors to consider… education, politics, traditionalists/modern, rural/urban, happiness/satisfaction As religiosity can change over time, which is the more usual pattern (in Switzerland): 1. becoming more religiously active > (marriage) > child OR 2. having a child > becoming more religiously active (need a long-running panel survey, like SHP)

40. Burning questions 2: Changing ‘meaning’ of religious attendance? Ritual (duty) > community Change in ‘meaning’ of childlessness? Alternative calling / health issues > for everyone > constraints / choice (possible with contraceptives) Trends are going up/down > change in behaviour Who is changing their behaviour / embracing change?

41. Burning questions 3: Are both fertility choices and religious behaviour determined by personality? (Can check for Switzerland using SHP data) Do those who take on ‘new’ behaviour norms have specific personality attributes? (But does personality vary over time / space / for the individual?) Inter-cohort differentials reflect change in opinions between generations > influence of (potential) grandparents… What avenues to explore to discover general ‘rules’ that work across time / countries / different trends?

42. Childlessness trends, religious trends: are they associated? In a static way childlessness and religious affiliation and practice are strongly associated (though not always in the same direction) But we cannot say - yet - whether the trends in religiosity and fertility are necessarily linked And if the trends are linked, then what is the underlying mechanism?

43. Thank you! For further questions and comments please contact me: drmarionb@gmail.com

45. Association of change in childlessness and change in total fertility: trends from 1970-1970 cohorts Data source: HFD

46. Derived from vital stats 20.7% From census 16.5% Proportion of women who were childless in Switzerland, 2000 Data source: vital statistics & census 2000

49. Religious attendance of young people (18-29): decline Data sources: WVS, EVS, ESS

50. Religious attendance of young people (18-29): stable/growth Data sources: WVS, EVS, ESS