Migrants from East/Central Europe: a new settlement pattern?

1. Migrants from East/Central Europe: a new settlement pattern? Mike Coombes CURDS Newcastle University Acknowledgements CURDS colleagues Tony Champion Simon Raybould Alison Stenning Ranald Richardson Cheryl Conway Stuart Dawley Liz Dixon Funding*preliminary results, not to be quoted* Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (New Horizons) Data access Home Office

2. Structure of the talk • Which migrants are the focus of the study? • Outline of the statistical analysis….by area • Establish ‘before’ pattern from Census data • What can we know about the A8 migrants? • CURDS results: A8 migrant LQs • Overview of conclusions

3. Which migrants is the study about? Migrants from the “A8”countries: 8 former eastern bloc countries which joined the EU in 2003 (the 2 other countries joining at the same time were Malta and Cyprus and they had different immigration status) Estimates of A8 migrant numbers (made before 2003) proved to be far too low because the calculations did not reckon on other western European countries deciding not to admit A8 labour migrants A8 migrants registered in the UK have all gained work

4. Migrant numbers reflect country size

5. The ObserverSunday April 23, 2006Heather Stewart, economics correspondent Migrants boost UK's growth Eastern Europe migrants have brought powerful benefits to Britain's economy since 10 new countries joined the European Union in 2004, according to research by the Ernst & Young Item Club. Item, which uses the Treasury's forecasting model, says interest rates are half a percentage point lower than they would have been without the influx of low-cost workers From the new members of the EU club. It calculates that economic growth will be boosted by 0.2 per cent this year, and 0.4 per cent in 2007.

6. What of local impacts/implications? “…people make places (the influx of new residents is part of the construction of a new local uniqueness) … bound into wider sets of social relations” Doreen Massey & Pat Jess (1995 p.221) A place in the world? Places, culture and globalisation Oxford University Press CURDS study for ODPM included both the summary statistical analysis (as below), plus a brief look at the detailed outcomes in Newcastle and Peterborough

7. Outline of statistical analysis by area For the total migrant flow, and sub-groups by nationality / job type / with(out) dependents ~ place each migrant in a local authority (LA) ~ calculate location quotients (LQs): ratio produced by dividing LA share of group by LA share of jobs) ~ summarise these to indicate clustering (sum over all LAs, absolute differences between LQs and 1.0) ~ correlate them vs. LAs’ employment rates and vs. LAs’ Urbanisation Index values ~ compare vs. earlier migrant groups’ patterns ~ summarise within a simple classification

8. Attraction of tighter labour markets?

9. Establish ‘before’ pattern (in 2001) Where were there already people who were born in east/central Europe (ECE)? (new ECE migrants may be attracted to these areas through social relations or due to unique local facilities) What of more recent migrant groups who may be more similar to the ECE migrants? (new ECE migrants known to be mainly young and unattached, and may be well qualified and staying relatively short periods)

10. E.Europe-born in 2001: ‘county’ LQs [ red=high blue= low ]

11. Selected comparator country-of-birth (CoB) group 2001 location indicators: clustering/urbanisation/employment%

12. Typology of selected CoB groups

13. Summary classification: 3 key types

14. What is known about A8 migrants? There is no data on the ‘stock’ of A8 migrants who are in the UK at 1 point in time (ie. a Census equivalent) Data available is from the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) and measures the ‘flow’ arriving to take jobs There is no information on how long people stayed and so many in the WRS data may have already left and, in fact, may be in the data again having then returned Some migrants from A8 countries are not in the WRS (eg. they are self-employed or working illegally)

15. A8 migrants in WRS (by end 2005) 345,000 applicants (up to 30% in UK before May 2004) 83% of registered workers aged between 18 and 34 97% have no dependants living with them in the UK 57% male seasonal labour – probably in agriculture-related and hospitality sectors – suggested by the summer peak each year has seen a higher peak than the one before

16. Concentration on London reducing

17. WRS data: records of gate-keeping CURDS analyses cover WRS data up to end June 2005 Postcode District (eg. PE4) of registration address Gender Date of Birth Nationality Outcome of Application Number of Dependents (by whether under 16) NOTHING on qualifications Job Title & Job Description [not standard categories] for example: other legal occupation – poultry catcher magician – production worker barrister – waiter

18. Job types identified by CURDS

19. CURDS results: A8 migrant LQs

20. A8 inflow to English LAs: top 10 LQs (‘best fit’ of postcode districts to LAs) (2645 migrants to Boston represent a share of the total A8 migrant flow to England which is 12.2 times higher than Boston’s share of all 2001 jobs in the country)

21. Agriculture and food processing

22. Hospitality retail and leisure workers

23. Manufacturing/processing workers

24. A8 country group location indicators: clustering/urbanisation/employment%

25. Summary of results from analysis

26. Overview of conclusions A new settlement pattern? Most similar to people from: • Baltic States / Poland (pre-2001 in-migrants) • Cyprus (‘A#9’) and Spain (previous Accession round) • Hong Kong (classic example of ‘scattered/dispersed’) ...BUT… less urban-focussed than most of these • more ‘white-collar’ workers more focussed on cities Methodological issues and/or future research needs Findings robust despite analysing flow and not stock? Other data sources (NI records, LFS…?) allow analyses of qualifications/pay/…? ABOVE ALLlength of stay