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The Afrobarometer is a scientific project measuring public attitudes toward democracy, markets, corruption, and more in Africa. It aims to advance democracy by promoting public opinion.
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Afrobarometer, Where is Africa Going? And How Does Namibia Fit In? 23 June 2006 Windhoek, Namibia
The Afrobarometer • Lived Poverty • Africans’ Views of Economics • Africans’ Views of Corruption • Partisan Identification • Africans’ Views of Democracy
Purpose • A comparative series of national public attitude surveys in Africa on Democracy, Markets and Civil Society • Scientific project dedicated to accurate and precise measurement of nationally representative samples of publics • Policy relevant project that inserts results into national and global policy discussion • Ultimately, advancing democracy in Africa by promoting the voice of public opinion
When and Where • In “reforming” African countries (generally, multi party regimes that have had a founding democratic election, or a re-democratizing election) • Round 1 (12 countries, mid-1999 to mid 2001) • in West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria • in East Africa: Uganda and Tanzania • in Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe • Round 2 (16 countries, mid 2002-late 2003) • repeats original 12 (Zimbabwe in early 2004) • Adds Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal • Round 3 (18 countries, 2005) • Adds Madagascar and Benin
Who Does It? Network • 3 Core Partners • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) • Michigan State University • 16 National Partners (NGO, public, private) • Other Individual and Institutional Research Associates • Regular Workshops • To discuss policies and protocols and appoint committees to produce concentrated pieces of work like draft questionnaires or revisions of survey methodologies • Summer School / Capacity Building • To build Network skills in scientific analysis, including social statistics, report writing and relevant literature
Who Does It? Southern Africa • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) East Africa • Michigan State University / • Wilsken Agencies (Uganda)
By Round 4 Southern Africa • Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) West Africa • Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) East Africa • Wilsken Agencies Support Units • Michigan State University • University of Cape Town
Who Supports It? • Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) • U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) • Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (NMFA) • Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation • Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs • World Bank • UK Department for International Development (DFID) • Danish Governance Trust Fund at the World Bank • Royal Dutch Embassy in Namibia • Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation • Trocaire Regional Office for Eastern Africa • Michigan State University • African Development Bank • U.S. National Science Foundation • Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
Sampling • Random • Clustered • Stratified • Area Probability • Proportionate (some exceptions: e.g Tanzania, South Africa) • Multi Stage • Nationally representative • Minimum Sample Size of 1200 gives a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points (2.8 points)
Interviewing • Personal, face-to-face interviews • Questionnaires translated in to local languages • Interviewers fluent in local languages
Measuring Lived Poverty • Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: • Enough food to eat? • Enough clean water for home use? • Medicines of medical treatment? • Electricity in your home? • Enough fuel to cook your food? • A cash income?
Measuring Lived Poverty • Over the past year, how often, if ever have you or your family gone without: • 0. Never • 1. Just Once or Twice • 2. Several Times • 3. Many Times • 4. Always
Measuring Economic Evaluations • Present • In general, how would you describe: The present economic condition of this country? • Past • Looking back, how do you rate the following compared to twelve months ago? Economic conditions in this country? • Future: • Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse? Economic conditions in this country in twelve months time?
Increasing Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions In Africa (2000-2005)
Stable / Stagnant Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions In Africa (2000-2005)
Declining Satisfaction WithPresent National Economic Conditions in Africa (2000-2005)
Measuring Support for Economic Reform • User fees • It is better to raise educational standards, even if we have to pay school fees • Job cuts • The government cannot afford so many public employees and should lay some of them off. • Economic impact • The government’s economic policies have helped most people; only a few have suffered (percent agree/agree very strongly). • Economic patience • In order for the economy to get better in the future, it is necessary for us to accept some hardships now.
Measuring Understandings of Corruption • For each of the following, please indicate whether you think the act is not wrong at all, wrong but understandable, or wrong and punishable. • A public official decides to locate a development project in an area where his friends and supporters lived • A government official gives a job to someone from his family who does not have adequate qualifications • A government official demands a favour or an additional payment for some service that is part of his job
Measuring Perceptions of Corruption • How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say • The President and officials in his office • Members of Parliament • Elected local government councilors • National government officials • Local government officials • Police • Tax officials • Judges and magistrates • Health workers • Teachers and school administrators
Declining Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)
Stable Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)
Increasing Perceptions of CorruptionNational Govt Officials (2000-2005)
Measuring Victimization by Corruption • In the past year, how often (if ever) have you had to pay a bribe, give a gift, or do a favour to government officials in order • Get a document or a permit? • Get a child into school? • Get a household service (like piped water, electricity or phone)? • Get medicine or medical attention from a health worker • Avoid a problem with the police (like passing a checkpoint or avoiding a fine or arrest)? • And during the XXXX election, how often (if ever) did a candidate or someone from a political party offer you something, like food or a gift, in return for your vote?
Partisan Identification and Voter Turnout, (12 Afrobarometer Countries, 1999-2001)