LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS EGYPT PART 3: EARTHQUAKES

1. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERSEGYPTPART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. EGYPT

3. POLITICAL MAP OF EGYPT

4. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPT FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES STORMS EARTHQUAKES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT DUST STORMS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

5. Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES

6. ACKNOWLEDGMENT:Egyptian ministries, universities, and officials contributed data and expertise in conjunction with the RELEMR PROGRAMME administered since 1990 by UNESCO and the USGS

7. Egypt has a very long historical record of earthquakes going back four millennia

8. CAUSE OF SEISMICITY • The interaction of the African, Arabian, Eurasian plates and the Sinai sub-plate is the main factor behind the seismicity of northern Egypt.

9. INTERACTING TECTONIC PLATES

10. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

11. HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK

12. SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL

13. EGYPT’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

14. FOUR SEISMIC ZONES • All earthquakes occur at shallow depth and are concentrated at four seismic zones: 1) the Gulf of Suez, 2) Gulf of Aqaba, 3) around the entrance of the Gulf of Suez, and 4) the Dahshur area (south- west of greater Cairo)..

15. LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS EXPOSURE MODEL

16. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS(the potential disaster agents) SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

17. TSUNAMI FAULT RUPTURE DAMAGE/ LOSS TECTONIC DEFORMATION DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS FOUNDATION FAILURE EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE/ LOSS SITE AMPLIFICATION DAMAGE/ LOSS LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS GROUND SHAKING

18. GROUND SHAKING

19. PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

20. QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM VULNERABILITY MODEL

21. 35 30 25 UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE 20 REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS 15 10 REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME 5 0 V VI VII VIII IX CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE INTENSITY

22. CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES “DISASTER LABORATORIES” LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

23. EXAMPLES OF PAST DAMAGING EARTHQUAKES THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE OCTOBER 12, 1992

24. The historical record shows that moderate-magnitude earthquakes such as those that occurred in 1969, 1974, 1981, 1992, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were very damaging.

25. THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE • The M5.8 Cairo earthquake occurred at 15:09 local time on 12 October 1992 with an epicenter near Dahshur, 35 km (22 mi) south of Cairo.

26. DAMAGE • The areas of greatest damage were in “Old Cairo” and southwards along the Nile as far as Gerza, on the west bank. • 350 buildings were completely destroyed and 9,000 other severely damaged, including 216 mosques and 350 schools.

27. DAMAGE • Most of the severe damage was confined to older masonry structures, especially those built of adobe. • Liquefaction occurred in areas near the epicenter

28. IMPACTS OF THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE • The most damaging seismic event to affect Cairo since 1847, the earthquake was unusually destructive for its size, causing 545 deaths, injuring 6,512 and making 50,000 people homeless. • Unfortunately, some of the deaths and injuries were due to panic.

29. THE REASON: Egypt’s buildings usually do not have adequate resistance to horizontal ground shaking, a recipe for disaster

30. A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES

31. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community torespond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

32. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

33. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

34. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

35. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NODISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

36. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

37. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

38. MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN EGYPT ARE INEVITABLE AND DAMAGING • ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.

39. THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER ISEARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

40. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • FORECASTS/SCENARIOS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION EARTHQUAKE RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

41. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

42. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

43. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

44. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

45. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

48. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

49. MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE

50. AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE