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The Okanagan Fish-Water Management (OKFWM) Tool: Balancing Water Objectives in Real-Time

The Okanagan Fish-Water Management (OKFWM) Tool: Balancing Water Objectives in Real-Time Ecosystem Connections, Jun 23 2003.

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The Okanagan Fish-Water Management (OKFWM) Tool: Balancing Water Objectives in Real-Time

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  1. The Okanagan Fish-Water Management (OKFWM) Tool: Balancing Water Objectives in Real-Time Ecosystem Connections, Jun 23 2003 Clint Alexander, David Marmorek, Colin Daniel, Calvin Peters, Kim Hyatt, Brian Symonds, Steve Matthews, Dean Watts, Howie Wright, Deanna Machin, Brent Philips, Brian Guy, Harvey Andrusak and Chris Bull

  2. Possible Adaptation Responses by Managers • eliminate harvest to compensate for decreased stock productivity (most harvest already eliminated; requires renegotiation of Salmon Treaty provisions). • alter water mgt rules to favour fish production benefits to compensate for decreased stock productivity (holding back scour inducing flows in Okanagan L. may induce millions of $$ of flood losses in Kelowna; requires renegotiation of Canada-BC Okanagan Basin Water Agreement). • engineer new water-control facilities to reduce water temp, adult migration and egg hatch delays (capital costs in excess of $100 million). • allocate more stored water in summer-fall to control temp-O2 “squeeze” and compensate for mortality events in Osoyoos L (limited summer water worth millions of $$ to users e.g. wineries who won’t give it up willingly). • ignore stock declines and risk triggering SARA-COSEWIC listing in Canada and ESA listing in the U.S. (would trigger challenges in courts by water and fisheries resource stakeholders in both countries; could provoke constitutional challenge by First Nations groups in Canada).

  3. Outline 1) Background / Goals • Multiple objectives • Okanagan Lake hydrology 2) Overview OKFWM Decision Support System • Technical architecture • Key concepts 3) Demonstration / Example Results 4) Strengths of Approach

  4. Penticton Dam Oliver

  5. Goal Collaboratively develop a decision support tool to enable managers to make informed, in-season decisions on Okanagan Lake water management that balance multiple objectives.

  6. Specific Project Objectives • Integrate bio/physical models into decision support tool for resource managers: • Okanagan Lake/River hydrology • sockeye & kokanee production • lakeshore & downstream flooding • recreation, navigation, tourism • domestic & agricultural water supply

  7. Okanagan Lake Annual Inflows(1921 - 1997)

  8. The Challenge – Determining Optimal Release Pattern • Once the freshet inflow volume forecast, system managers determine releases which best meet multiple objectives • Historically, releases based on rules of thumb/past experience and incomplete information

  9. Timing of Events

  10. OKFWM Decision Support System What is it? • Internet-based simulation model developed collaboratively by OBTWG, ESSA & Summit • Incorporates inflow forecasts, real-time data and biophysical models • Data in one SQL Server database • Gaming and rapid trade-off analysis, with results in Excel

  11. OKFWM - Key Concepts • Use best information on a “decision date” • Scenarios consist of • Inflow forecast • Dam release policy • Submodel assumptions • Acceptable/Unacceptable ranges for PMs (“red”, “yellow”, “green” hazard thresholds) • Time step: weekly for forecasts; daily for actual data • 5 locations: Okanagan Lake (kokanee), Penticton (dam), Okanagan Falls, McIntyre Dam, Oliver (sockeye) • Inflow uncertainty handled as Best-Guess, Low & High forecasts

  12. Demo & Example Results Current conditions (as of Jun 18 2003…) 1. Outflow = Inflow 2. Manage for sockeye, kokanee, lake recreation & water supply… … 3. Apply Jun 18 rules as of Feb 1 2003 Extremely High Inflow Year (1997) 4. Actual lake levels and river flows

  13. Run1 - Current Conditions, Jun18 (outflow = inflow; no constraints)

  14. Run2 - Current Conditions, Jun18 (with management constraints)

  15. Run4 – Actual 1997 lake levels and Penticton releases

  16. Run4 – Alternative 1997 release policy (no win-wins)

  17. Best dam release policy, point of view “x” Multiple objectives Scientific Uncertainty Value differences Procedure for In-Season Use.. base case assumptions PMs & hazard thresholds Inflow Estimates Agree on… Individual analysis… Group analysis… Optimal Policy (decision point t)

  18. Strengths of the Approach Integrates current understanding of hydrology, SK, KOK, social systems Helps structure dialogue on multiple objectives & tradeoffs FWMT Real time data allows response to unexpected stochastic events Web-accessible model, trials, parameters, data, decisions

  19. EXTRAS

  20. Acknowledgements • Funding • Douglas County Public Utility District No.1 • Technical Oversight • Okanagan Basin TWG members • Administration • Okanagan Nation Alliance • ESSA Partner • Summit Environmental Consultants

  21. Background - Impetus • The Flow Management project is funded by Douglas PUD to meet a mitigative responsibility for juvenile sockeye for Wells Dam. • Wells Dam is the first of nine dams Okanagan sockeye encounter en route to Pacific. • The Okanagan Basin Technical Working Group provides oversight and technical know-how for the project. • OK River sockeye only significant stock returning to Canada through US Columbia River

  22. Background - Okanagan Lake Hydrology • Annual inflow hydrograph dominated by snowmelt runoff • Range of annual inflows: • 78 to 1400 million m3 • 0.23 m to 4.12 m stage change • Regulated at Penticton Dam

  23. Login

  24. Scenario Manager

  25. Inflow Estimates

  26. Scenario

  27. Release Constraints

  28. Share with Others…

  29. …Available to be Run/Copied by Others

  30. Server Computer Runs Model, Makes Excel Reports

  31. Model Results Hyperlinks to downloadable Excel Files

  32. Project Design Conceptual Models Design Workshop Submodel Designs Model Construction Prototype Review & Training Model Revisions, Release 2003 Testing

  33. 6 7 End Users Client Layer Client Computers 1 2 Web Browser Microsoft Excel Deployment Layer 3 Internet Server Computer Application Layer 4 User Interface: .NET Web Forms 5 Model: Visual Basic .NET Data Layer OKFWM SQL Server Database Database Administrator / Automation Real-time / historical data 8 Parameters/Lookup data

  34. Okanagan Lake Dam

  35. Mean Monthly Inflows to Okanagan Lake

  36. Challenges • Making the model easy to use • Making outputs to relevant to decision-makers • Showing trade-offs between objectives, uncertainty • Linking the submodels  database • Complexity of inputs to decisions (past in-situ data + future projections; uneven weeks) • Volume of material - many pieces to put together; some more extensive than envisioned

  37. OKFWM: What you can do... 1. Create and share scenarios 2. Enter RFC inflow estimates (Feb 1 +) 3. Develop alternative release policies • weekly “constraints” (else..) • outflow = inflow (default min. allowable - 5 m3/s) 4. Perform simulation 5. Obtain multi-objective output & immediately diagnose hazard levels

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