Meteorological Information for Locust Control – challenges and opportunities M.V.K. Sivakumar Chief, Agricultural Meteor

1. Meteorological Information for Locust Control – challenges and opportunities M.V.K. Sivakumar Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Programme World Meteorological Organization

2. Presentation • Meteorological requirements for different life phases of locusts • Meteorology and migration of locusts • Meteorological Information - opportunities • Field Servers • MetBroker • Forecasting locust migration – opportunities • NWP • BLAYER • Conclusions

3. All the different phases of locust life cycle require ideal meteorological conditions

4. Hence different meteorological parametersmust be measured at different stages

5. Meteorological conditions during egg laying phase (Source:FAO) • Moist soil conditions about 5-10 cm below the soil surface required in order to allow the eggs to absorb moisture to complete their development. • The rate of development of the egg is a function of the soil temperature. • Eggs can dry up if exposed to wind or can also be destroyed by flooding. • Under conditions when soil temperatures are above 35 °C, high egg mortality may occur.

7. Meteorological conditions during hopper development phase (Source:FAO) • Hopper development period decreases with increasing daily air temperature from 24 to 32 °C. • The transition from the first instar to the fifth instar (the period between moulting when the hoppers shed their skin) requires rainy conditions since the hoppers require vegetation for their survival.

8. Rate of movement of hopper bands depends on Meteorological conditions (Source:FAO) • On warm, sunny days the bands march throughout the day while on overcast days, they do not move very far. • While very little movement occurs at night, exceptionally high night temperatures do facilitate some movement. • Band movement is usually downwind. Band densities vary according to weather.

9. Importance of rains during maturing phase (Source:FAO) • After fledging (the final moult from the wingless fifth or sixth instar to winged adult), the hardening of the soft wings of the locust is stimulated by rainfall. • Immature adults start to mature when they arrive in an area which received rains recently.

10. Importance of rains during copulation and egg laying (Source:FAO) • After copulation with the male, egg development in the female depends on air temperature since temperatures below 15°C do not favour egg development. • Under conditions of high temperatures, the egg development is more rapid.

11. Importance of meteorological conditions for egg laying (Source:FAO) • Appropriate weather conditions such as maximum air temperatures of 35 °C and good rainfall to maintain vegetative growth favour egg laying within three weeks of fledging. • If the conditions are dry, immature adults can survive upto six months. Hot and dry weather combined with sparse vegetation could lead to death of the adults.

12. Migration of adults depends on meteorological conditions (Source:FAO) • The migration of solitary adults occurs at night, usually 20 minutes after sunset when the air temperature is above 20-22 °C and the wind is less than 7 m/s. • It is reported that 100% of the adults take off at > 27°C and the direction of the flight is downwind.

13. Structure of the swarms depends on meteorological conditions (Source:FAO) • The first swarms form several kms downwind from the main laying area and the structure of the swarms depends on weather conditions. • Cool, overcast weather favours stratiform swarms while convective updrafts on hot afternoons promote cumuliform swarms.

14. Take off of swarms depends on meteorological conditions (Source:FAO)

15. Swarm movement depends on synoptic conditions (Source:FAO)

16. Seasonal changes in mean wind flow bring locusts into specific zones(Source:FAO)

17. In summary, meteorological information is crucial for locust monitoring and control (Source:FAO)

18. Meteorological Information for Locust control- opportunities • Examine the Integrated Pest Management System for Locust Control (IPM-Locust) • Target Functions • Main Components • Observation/Monitoring • Database Management • Forecasting Models • Prediction on Migration • Mitigation Measures • Impact Assessment

19. Target functions • Case Study/Analysis : using Historical data • Real-time Monitoring : using field Observation data • Prediction on Migration : using Integrated Models • Counter Measures: using Integrated Pest Management • Implementation Action : doing systematic Evaluations and Impact Assessment

20. Major System Components • Field Observation System • Database Management System • Communication System • Model Operation Servers • Implementations Teams

21. Real-time observation & Monitoring • Agronomy: Vegetation growth & development • Insects : Population, migration, (trapping) • Meteorology : Weather & soil elements, synoptic observations There are new and exciting opportunities offered by “Field Server” in real-time monitoring of weather & soil elements

22. Database management • Historical data : weather, insect, crops • Observed data : weather, insect, crops • Reanalysis data : GRIDed • Model output : NWP, Crop, Insect There are new and exciting opportunities offered by “Weather Broker” in managing weather data

23. Forecasting models • Weather : Numerical Weather Prediction Models • Migration : Trajectory models There are new and exciting opportunities offered by NWP and trajectory models

24. Communications • Telephone • Fax • Internet • Mobile phone • WI-FI There are new and exciting opportunities in combining the use of internet, mobile phone and WIFI in monitoring locusts and weather data

25. Field Server • Recently, Fukatsu et al. (2003) developed a field monitoring system called FieldServer. • An automatic monitoring system with CPU (Web server), AD converter, DA converter, Ethernet controller, high intensity LED lighting and sensors for air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation (PPFD), soil moisture, leaf wetness, infra-red sensor, CMOS/CCD camera.

26. Wi-Fi connectivity for Field Servers • Interconnected by Wireless LAN (Wi-Fi, IEEE802.11b). High-resolution pictures of fields are transferred through Wi-Fi broadband networks, and stored on Web servers. The cameras can be remotely controlled by web browser.

27. A whole region can be covered by the Internet accessible wireless hot spot, having several Field Servers deployed with just one link point to Internet

28. Functions of Field Server • By using wireless LAN for Field Servers, we can use a high-speed transmission network without much of communication expense, and without needing installation construction. • Field Servers can be installed in the right locations according to the need. By building a Web Server in Field Servers, we can easily monitor and control Field Servers using a Web browser (e.g. Internet Explorer) like accessing a Web page. • Various kinds of Field Servers can be accessed easily and uniformly, and various applications for Field Servers can be used on the Web.

29. Field Server Specifications • Wireless LAN of 11Mbps (IEEE1394.11b) and a Field Server Engine which is a main computer card for controlling measurements. • The Field Server Engine has a 10 bit A/D converter which takes in the values of temperature, humidity, photosynthesis photon flux density, and distance from sensors. • After monitoring data, exchange of data can done by accessing the Web Server built in the Field Server Engine. • The hardware connections between inside/outside devices are standardized by Ethernet (10/100base-T) to eliminate legacy hardware problems and to easily extend various peripheral equipment, such as a Web Camera.

30. Field Server Specifications (contd.) • A standard Field Server can be driven by the external power supply of AC100V or DC12V, and also be driven by private power generation like a solar panel. • Field Servers can be accessed from a Web browser connected with the network via wireless LAN or the Ethernet port such as PDA and DOS/V PC, and get monitoring data in html format. • Thus, an Agent System which performs monitoring and controlling of these data can be developed and finally MDMS can be constructed based on Field Servers. • Currently cost of a Field Server is lower than $500. When the Field Server engine is integrated into one chip, cost will be same as a pocket calculator.

31. Advantages of using Field Servers • Field Servers are equipped with a wireless LAN for networking and with a Web Server, and so the MDMS can be constructed utilizing these features. • When many Field Servers are installed in a field, a network with built-in wireless LAN can be constructed to exchange data among all Field Servers by connecting to just one unit. • Furthermore, if just one Field Server is connected to the Internet, all Field Servers can be accessed at any place with Internet access and the MDMS can be constructed easily. • Via a built-in Web Server, we can access any Field Server of any type or any measurement item. Thereby, we can eliminate legacy problems and monitor various data.

32. Field Server Agent System using XML and Java Technology

33. Field Server Agent System • An Agent System has some applications which monitor and control Field Servers via a network and make a database. • As the applications based on Java and the data based on XML can be commonly used for web programming and distributed databases, the MDMS can be constructed with the Agent System. • Each Field Server has its own parameter file in XML format which stores the installation place, measurement items, calibration parameters, etc., and the Agent System executes some programs based on these XML files. • Therefore, the same application can be accessed by updating the parameter file, even when sensors, installation place or other factors of Field Servers are changed.

34. Met Broker • Surface weather records are important for many agricultural models, but weather data is scattered over many different databases and is constantly being updated. • MetBroker provides consistent, timely access to Internet-based weather databases. • MetBroker hides the differences between databases, giving consistent access to both weather data and station details. • MetBroker does not require any modification of the original databases

36. Advantages of MetBroker • MetBroker-compatible models can be run against any linked database • When a new database is linked, compatible models can use it immediately (no recompilation...) • If a database changes (eg from file-based to relational), you don't need to change your models • Java beans make it easy to develop MetBroker-linked applications • Open source code under GNU LGPL • Utility classes for handling weather data

37. MetBroker (contd.) • MetBroker provides applications with details of available data, receives requests from client applications specifying the elements, resolution and period required, queries remote databases and returns results to the client program. • Requests can be either for a single station or the geographical area of interest. In the latter case, MetBroker returns results from multiple databases to the client, which is unprecedented functionality. • The results of geographical requests can be used for spatial interpolation. • MetBroker utilizes a powerful metadata structure to provide catalogues of available data to client applications, and identify which databases should service geographical requests.

38. MetBroker (contd.) • MetBroker currently offers access to over 5000 stations in 14 databases in 7 countries. • MetBroker’s original design makes it easy to add a new database, and MetBroker-linked DSS can use the new database immediately without any modification.

39. Numerical model simulation of migrant insects • Current forecasting methods for insect migration rely on the use of twice daily upper-air and surface weather data and charts to construct both subjective and objective trajectory analyses. • Unfortunately, forecast inaccuracies can arise since these analyses often do not use winds from the levels at which the insects are flying and they cannot capture the diurnal variations in the near-surface winds. • Turner el al. reported that the use of a more sophisticated atmospheric numerical model (BLAYER) can account for these daily variations, as a detailed space-time interpolator can provide more accurate meteorological analyses at the altitude of insect transport.

40. BLAYER Model • Simulates atmospheric flows within the lowest few kilometers of the earth's atmosphere. The model is used to describe diurnal variations in temperature and wind fields and has been adapted to forecast the timing and location of insect pest migrations into the United States corn belt. • The model uses a 5-10 minute time step and is generally run for 1-3 day time intervals. • The model uses soil texture and moisture information, fields of atmospheric variables and DEM data as input. It has been used to examine cutworm dispersion in the cornbelt. • The model provides output in ASCII format and data for a grid. Output includes: temperature, wind vectors, pressure, soil moisture, soil temperature, turbulent energy and insect concentrations at any time interval.

41. BLAYER Model(Contd.) • The model provides output in ASCII format and data for a grid. Output includes: temperature, wind vectors, pressure, soil moisture, soil temperature, turbulent energy and insect concentrations at any time interval. • This model could be of particular importance to the study of pest migration and the potential changes in dispersal patterns of crop damaging pests brought on by changes in climatic conditions. • Because the output is in a spatial format (e.g. grid pattern), the output of the model may be brought into a GIS for further spatial analyses.

42. BLAYER Model(Contd.) • It is important to understand that the computer model is a tool used to aid pest-management decision makers. • The model provides just one component in planning for pest management. • Other important components relate to knowledge about insect behaviour, trapping data, insect phenologies, crop scouting, and pesticide options. • Thus care would have to be taken in ensuring how the model results are interpreted by people to whom the forecasts are distributed.

43. Conclusions • All the different phases in the life cycle of locusts and the migration of locust swarms require ideal meteorological conditions. Hence meteorological information is crucial for locust monitoring and control. • The challenge is to obtain comprehensive and accurate meteorological information on both temporal and spatial scales to assist with efficient management of locust monitoring and control. • There are new and exciting opportunities offered by Field Server and MetBroker for obtaining accurate meteorological information and for efficient management of meteorological data collected over wide areas. • WMO and FAO could prepare a joint project to use new technologies for MILC.

44. Conclusions (contd.) • There are new opportunities in combining the use of Internet, mobile phone and WI-FI in monitoring locusts and weather data. • NWP and trajectory models offer good possibilities for improving forecasts of locust migration. • One such model is BLAYER which can provide accurate meteorological analyses at the altitude of locust transport and provide information on the dispersal patterns of locusts brought about by changes in climatic conditions.