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High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons: Linked to Global Change?

High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons: Linked to Global Change?. Jonathan E. Martin University of Wisconsin-Madison. 2132 UTC 26 October 2010. Supertyphoon Megi – 17 October 2010. 00 UTC 20 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel , Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K.

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High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons: Linked to Global Change?

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  1. High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons: Linked to Global Change? Jonathan E. Martin University of Wisconsin-Madison

  2. 2132 UTC 26 October 2010

  3. Supertyphoon Megi – 17 October 2010

  4. 00 UTC 20 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  5. 00 UTC 21 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  6. 00 UTC 22 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  7. 00 UTC 23 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  8. 00 UTC 24 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  9. 00 UTC 25 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K

  10. 00 UTC 16 October 2010 q J J

  11. 00 UTC 22 October 2010 q J

  12. 00 UTC 22 October 2010 Q and PV J

  13. 00 UTC 22 October 2010 Q and PV J

  14. Defant and Taba 1957

  15. Defant and Taba 1957 Defant and Taba 1957 Tropopause Pressure (mb) 1 January 1956

  16. Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events

  17. Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events Can jet superpositions be objectively identified?

  18. Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events Can jet superpositions be objectively identified? 300 hPa Wind Speed 0000 UTC 27 April 2010

  19. A A`

  20. A A`

  21. A A`

  22. A A`

  23. B B` 0000 UTC 24 October 2010

  24. B B` 0000 UTC 24 October 2010

  25. B B` 0000 UTC 24 October 2010

  26. B B` 0000 UTC 24 October 2010

  27. 00 UTC 24 October 2010 0.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K Subtropical/Polar jet Superpositions

  28. Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation

  29. Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation Polar Jet tied to mid-latitude baroclinicity

  30. Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation Polar Jet tied to mid-latitude baroclinicity

  31. Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ

  32. Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ Extends the period of possible jet superpositions

  33. Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ Extends the period of possible jet superpositions More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??

  34. Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific

  35. Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific Extends the period of possible jet superpositions

  36. Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific Extends the period of possible jet superpositions More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??

  37. Next Steps

  38. Next Steps  Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions

  39. Next Steps  Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions  Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather

  40. Next Steps  Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions  Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather • Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of • increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate

  41. Next Steps  Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions  Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather • Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of • increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate  Provide more tenable physical linkages between traditional climate science and traditional weather systems science

  42. 1800 UTC 1 May 2010

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