Päätösanalyysia ja riskinhallintaa tapausesimerkin kautta

1. Päätösanalyysia ja riskinhallintaa tapausesimerkin kautta Jouni Tuomisto, Mikko Pohjola THL

2. Q R A Avoin riskinhallinta: yleiskuva

3. Miksi kaupunkitaso on tärkeää ilmastopolitiikassa? • Monet käytännön päätökset tapahtuvat kaupunkitasolla (talousalueen tasolla). • Ei välttämättä kaupunginvaltuusto päätä, mutta kaupungin rooli muutosta tukevana toimijana.

4. Turvetta säästyy Sähköä tuodaan Bionesteitä tuotetaan Energiaa säästyy Liikenne vähenee Energiataseen toiminta

5. Olennaiset lähtötiedot energiataselaskentaan • Energiankäyttö nykytilanteessa (kuvaus): http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Energiatase/Kuopio • Energiankäytön data Opasnet-tietokannassa: http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Toiminnot:Opasnet_Base?smp=0&op=smp&sr=1&sa=0&id=Op_fi2288 • Energiankäytön ja kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen laskentamalli: http://en.opasnet.org/w/Energy_balance • Käyttäjän itse syöttämät tiedot • Tiedoista ja mallista käytävä keskustelu: http://fi.opasnet.org/fi/Keskustelu:Energiatase/Kuopio

6. Ilmastotoimiesimerkki Kuopiossa: 10 kton bionesteitä, 16% lämmönsäästö

7. Avoimen arvioinnin olennaisia piirteitä • Kaikki tieto on kaikkien käytettävissä ja muokattavissa (sääntöjen puitteissa) koko ajan. • Yksi työtila (Opasnet) kaikelle tiedontuotannolle: • Alkuperäisaineistot ja -analyysit • Tutkimusten tiivistelmät • Yhteiskunnalliset arvot • Vaikutusarvioinnit • Toimenpideanalyysit • Tieteellinen kritiikki ja arviointi • Yhteiskunnallinen keskustelu • Päätelmät ja toimintasuositukset

8. Avoimen arvioinnin hyödyt • Yhteiskunnallinen päätöksenteko on aina monimutkainen yhdistelmä arvoja ja tutkimustietoa. • Johdonmukainen yhdistäminen ei onnistu kahvipöydässä (edes eduskunnassa), mutta avoimella arvioinnilla se onnistuu.

9. Jakso 1: • Esittely aiheeseen: johdatus riskinhallintaan ja päätösanalyysiin (sisältää pienen harjoituksen) Mikko Pohjola • Pääviesti • Tieto ja toiminnan kompleksisuus: ne kytkeytyvät yhteen, mikä tekee siitä erityisen vaikeaa mutta se on kuitenkin mahdollista.

10. Jakso 2: • Kuopion ilmastopoliittisen ohjelman (2009-2010) esittely (Erkki Pärjälä); huomioita ohjelman käytännön toteuttamisesta (Mikko Pohjola). • Pääviesti • Suunnitelmassa kytkentä suunnitellusta toiminnasta ja todellisesta vaikuttavuudesta kohtaavat huonosti. Rajoittunut näkemys. Hyvä että voidaan sopia tavoitteista mutta se ei riitä. Hyvä että ilmastotiede tuottaa ymmärrystä mutta sekään ei riitä. On myös tietoa toiminnan todellisista vaikutuksista. Mutta tarvitaan uskottava ja kattava kytkentä suunnitellusta toiminnasta tavoitteisiin, jotta se ohjaisi toimintaa.

11. Jakso 3: • Tarkastelussa henkilöliikenne ja asuntojen lämmitys: kuinka paljon saavutettavissa, paljonko syntyy haittaa, ketkä päättävät? Minkä tiedon pohjalta toimitaan? Jouni Tuomisto • Pääviesti • On katsottava kokonaisenergiatasetta ja sen CO2-päästöjä ja terveys- ym. vaikutuksia, ei yksittäisiä laitoksia tai polttoaineita. Tarkastelua voidaan ja pitää tehdä joukossa, yhdessä oppien. Tätä varten on tieto ja mallit jaettava.

12. Jakso 4: • Yksin tai ryhmissä etsitään ratkaisuja päivän aikana esiintyneisiin ilmastokysymyksiin: mitä konkreettisia asioita voisi edistää? Miten ilmasto-ohjelman jotain tavoitetta saadaan käytännöllisemmäksi toiminnaksi? Miten tieto saadaan hyötykäyttöön? Jouni Tuomisto • Pääviesti • Kuinka toiminta saadaan aikaiseksi? Miten suunniteltu toiminta kytketään tavoitteisiin? Miten oikeasti toteutetaan? • Ryhmätyön/keskustelun kysymykset: • Millä toimilla voidaan vähentää esim. 20 % päästöistä/kulutuksesta? • Millä keinoilla nuo toimet voidaan toteuttaa oikeasti? Mitä vaikeuksia? Kuinka uskottavaa on, että toteutuisi oikeasti? • Mitä ympäristö- ja terveysvaikutuksia toimilla olisi? (tai muita: talous, sosiaaliset ym. vaikutukset)

13. CO2-päästöjen jakautuminen Kuopiossa

14. Kuopion energiansäästötavoitteet

15. Contents • Conventional perspectives to risk management • Open risk management (ORM) • RM in the swine flu case • Beginning of the pandemic • Preparedness in Finland and elsewhere

16. Conventional perspectives to risk management Mikko Pohjola, THL

17. Risk management (of what?) • Google ”risk management”, what do you find? • Finance, project, legal, credit, accident, disaster, terrorism, … • What we want to find, is environment and health risk management • Also several perspectives to this! • Somewhat related to E&H RM are: • Workplace health and safety RM • Engineering safety RM (e.g. nuclear safety) • World Bank’s social RM (SRM)

18. Definitions of RM • Wikipedia: • Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives, whether positive or negative) followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events, or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

19. Definitions of RM • BusinessDictionary.com: • Policies, procedures, and practices involved in identification, analysis, assessment, control, and avoidance of unacceptable risks. A firm may use risk assumption, risk avoidance, risk retention, risk transfer, or anu other strategy (or combination of strategies) in proper management of future events.

20. RM strategies • Wikipedia (RM): • Avoidance • eliminate, withdraw from or not become involved • Reduction • optimize - mitigate • Sharing • transfer - outsource or insure • Retention • accept and budget • Wikipedia (SRM): • Prevention • Mitigation • Coping

21. RM strategies • STTV (National Product Control Agency for Welfare and Health): • Non-acceptance / substitution • Design of packaging (child resistant fastening) • Classification & labeling • Limit of the product volume • Modification of a physical state • Limiting the marketing or use • Instructions, information, warnings • Technical measure (closed system, exhaust ventilation, …) • Training • Medical surveillances • Personal protective equipment (gloves, filters, covers,…) Presentation by J. Räisänen, STTV. 8.11.2006. Introduction to environmental risk assessment. Kuopio.

22. Conventional frameworks for E&H RM • Several perspectives exist, e.g.: • EHRM framework • NRC • Red book RA, Understanding risk, Science and decisions • IRGC risk governance framework • REACH • YVA - regulatory EIA in Finland • Water resources management (integrated modelling) • Ecological RA/RM • Risk analysis

23. EHRM framework The Presidential / Congressional comission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Final Report Volume 1, 1997.

24. EHRM framework • Risk management is the process of identifying, evaluating, selecting, and implementing actions to reduce risk to human health and to ecosystems. • The goal of risk management is scientifically sound, cost-effective, integrated actions that reduce or prevent risks while taking into account social, cultural, ethical, political, and legal considerations.

25. EHRM framework • Risk is defined as the probability that a substance or situation will produce harm under specified conditions. Risk is a combination of two factors: • The probability that an adverse event will occur (such as a specific disease or type of injury). • The consequences of the adverse event. • Risk encompasses impacts on public health and on the environment, and arises from exposure and hazard. Risk does not exist if exposure to a harmful substance or situation does not or will not occur. Hazard is determined by whether a particular substance or situation has the potential to cause harmful effects.

26. Risk assessment Risk management Observations Hazard identification Regulatory options Extrapolation Dose-response assessment Risk characterization Evaluation of options Measurements and population characteristics Exposure assessment Decisions and actions NRC: Red book NRC 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Progress. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

27. NRC: Red book • Regulatory actions are based on two distinct elements, risk assessment and risk management. • Risk assessment is the use of the factual base to define the health effects of exposure of individuals or populations to hazardous materials and situations. • Risk management is the process of weighing policy alternatives and selecting the most appropriate regulatory action, integrating the results of risk assessment with engineering data and with social, economic, and political concerns to reach a decision.

28. NRC: Red book • …the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects associated with exposure of humans to toxic substances. • Many decisions of federal agencies in regulating chronic health hazards… …improvements in scientific and technologic capability to detect potentially hazardous chemicals, in changes in public expectations and concerns about health protection, and in the fact that the costs and benefits of regulatory policies fall unequally on different groups...

29. Learning and feedback Implementation Evaluation Public officials Decision Problem formulation Process design Selecting options & outcomes Information gathering Synthesis Natural and social scientists Interested and affected parties Analysis and deliberation NRC: Understanding Risk (Orange book) • Role and importance of deliberation • Risk characterization as the link between assessment and management NRC 1996. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

30. NRC: Science and decisions (Silver book) NRC 2009. Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

31. NRC: Science and decisions (Silver book) • How we deal with risk depends largely on how well we understand it. The process of risk assessment has been used to help us understand and address a wide variety of hazards… • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other federal and state agencies, industry, the academic community, and others in evaluating public-health and environmental concerns. • From protecting air and water to ensuring the safety of food, drugs, and consumer products such as toys, risk assessment is an important public-policy tool for informing regulatory and technologic decisions, setting priorities among research needs, and developing approaches for considering the costs and benefits of regulatory policies.

32. Management sphere: Decision & implementation of actions Assessment sphere: Generation of knowledge Pre assessment ▪ Problem framing ▪ Early warning ▪ Screening ▪ Determination of scientific conventions Risk management Implementation ▪ Option realization ▪ Monitoring & control ▪ Feedback from risk management practice Decision making ▪ Option identification & generation ▪ Option assessment ▪ Option evaluation & selection Risk appraisal Risk assessment ▪ Hazard identification & estimation ▪ Exposure & vulnerability assessment ▪ Risk estimation Concern assessment ▪ Risk perceptions ▪ Social concerns ▪ Socio-economic impacts Communication Tolerability & acceptability judgement Risk evaluation ▪ Judging tolerability & acceptability ▪ Need for risk reduction measures Risk characterization ▪ Risk profile ▪ Judgment of the seriousness of risk ▪ Conclusions & risk reduction options IRGC – Risk governance IRGC 2005. Risk governance – towards an integrative approach. International Risk Governance Council. Geneva.

33. IRGC • Risk is an uncertain (generally adverse) consequence of an event or activity with respect to something that humans value. Risks are often accompanied by opportunities. • Systemic risks are embedded in the larger context of societal, financial and economic consequences and are at the intersection between natural events, economic, social and technological developments and policy-driven actions. Such risks are not confined to national borders; they cannot be managed through the actions of a single sector; they require a robust governance approach if they are to be adequately managed. The governance of systemic risks requires cohesion between countries and the inclusion within the process of governments, industry, academia and civil society.

34. IRGC • Governance refers to the actions, processes, traditions and institutions by which authority is exercised and decisions are taken and implemented. • Risk governance deals with the identification, assessment, management and communication of risks in a broad context. It includes the totality of actors, rules, conventions, processes and mechanisms and is concerned with how relevant risk information is collected, analysed and communicated, and how management decisions are taken. It applies the principles of good governance that include transparency, effectiveness and efficiency, accountability, strategic focus, sustainability, equity and fairness, respect for the rule of law and the need for the chosen solution to be politically and legally feasible as well as ethically and publicly acceptable. • Risk accompanies change. It is a permanent and important part of life and the willingness and capacity to take and accept risk is crucial for achieving economic development and introducing new technologies. Many risks, and in particular those arising from emerging technologies, are accompanied by potential benefits and opportunities. • The challenge of better risk governance lies here: to enable societies to benefit from change while minimising the negative consequences of the associated risks.

35. IRGC

36. IRGC

37. Information: available vs. required/needed ▪ Substance intrinsic properties ▪ Manufacture, use, tonnage, exposure, risk management Hazard assessment ▪ Hazard identification ▪ Classification & labeling ▪ Derivation of threshold levels ▪ PBT/vPvB assessment Exposure assessment ▪ Exposure scenarios building ▪ Exposure estimation Iteration no Dangerous or PBT/vPvB yes Risk characterisation yes no Risk controlled Chemical safety report REACH – EU Chemical safety ECHA 2008. Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment. Guidance for the Implementation of REACH.

38. Phase 1 Phase 2 Evaluation program Statements of the ministry of employment and economy about the report Participation Opinions and statements about the program Opinions and statements about the report Participation Statements of the ministry of employment and economy about the evaluation Assessment Evaluation report YVA - regulatory EIA in Finland Pohjola et al. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: Environmental health. Manuscript.

39. YVA Jantunen & Hokkanen 2010. YVA-lainsäädännön toimivuusarviointi – Ympäristövaikutusten arviointimenettelyn toimivuus ja kehittämistarpeet. Ympäristöministeriö. Helsinki.

40. Water resource management (integrated modeling approach) Liu et al. 2008. Linking science with environmental decision making: Experiences from an integrated modelling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23:846-858.

41. Ecological RA/RM Ecological risk assessment. Book. ???

42. Risk analysis

43. Risk assessment Risk management Hazard identification Options generation Exposure assessment Dose-response assessment Options evaluation Policy effect evaluation Policy selection & implementation Risk characterization Risk analysis Lessons from the KTL Centre of excellence in environmental health risk analysis

44. Risk assessment Risk management Hazard identification Options generation Exposure assessment Dose-response assessment Options evaluation Policy effect evaluation Risk characterization Policy selection & implementation Risk communication Does risk analysis pay off? Million euro cycle Billion euro cycle

45. Some RM related concepts • Risk communication (RC) • WHO: Risk communication is an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion on risk among risk assessors, risk managers, and other interested parties. • Risk perception (RP) • Wikipedia: the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks. • Risk assessment (RA) • Risk characterisation • Risk analysis

46. Discussion points • Similarities and differences between perspectives? • Clear? Solid? Unambiguous? • In comparison e.g. to the theory of DA • Sufficient?

47. Different roles in risk management • Political decision makers (has the decision-making power) • Policy makers (develops policies to be decided) • Scientists, risk assessors in administration, or consultants working for administration • Representatives of the industry or business. • Representatives of NGOs. • Citizens directly affected by the risk assessment outcomes. • Anyone interested.

48. Questions to ask about RM • Risk • what risk(s)? • how about benefits (costs)? • whose risks / whose benefits? • Management: • who manages? • manages what? • manages how? • on what basis?

49. Interim conclusions • RM: from needs to knowledge, knowledge to action • a societal knowledge/learning process • Confused? Don’t worry, we’ll get back to these issues on the later part of the course…

50. Open risk management Jouni Tuomisto, THL