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Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)

Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines). Department of Environment and Natural Resources Manila Observatory 14 April 2005. TYPHOON TRACKS. EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS. RISK. likelihood of harm, loss, disaster. Physical impact of disturbance. HAZARD.

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Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)

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  1. Finding Harm’s Way(Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Manila Observatory 14 April 2005

  2. TYPHOON TRACKS

  3. EARTHQUAKEEPICENTERS

  4. RISK likelihood of harm, loss, disaster

  5. Physical impact of disturbance HAZARD Elements affected by hazard EXPOSURE Capacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard VULNERABILITY RISK

  6. Risk = H x E x V

  7. Exposure • Population • Natural habitat • Conservation areas • Groundwater

  8. EXPOSURE POPULATION DENSITY 2000 National Statistics Office City/Municipal Population Data 1km x 1km grids

  9. EXPOSURE NATURAL HABITAT Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  10. EXPOSURE CONSERVATION AREAS Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  11. EXPOSURE GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY Mines and Geosciences Bureau

  12. Vulnerability • Human Development Index • Education • Health • Economy • Urban centers • Socio-eco pressures • Transport

  13. VULNERABILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000) UNDP Education Health Income

  14. VULNERABILITY HIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERS Task Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines

  15. VULNERABILITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  16. VULNERABILITY TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  17. EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000) POPULATION DENSITY 2000

  18. Hazards/Risks • Natural • Typhoon • Drought (El Nino) • Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide) • Volcano • Tsunami • Anthropogenic • Deforestation • Mining • Climate change (temperature,rainfall)

  19. HAZARD TYPHOON Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms, Typhoons, Super typhoons) 0.25º x 0.25º grids (1945-2001)

  20. RISK (Typhoon) Ifugao La Union Cagayan Ilocos Sur Albay Mountain Province Kalinga Pangasinan Sorsogon Pampanga Camarines Sur Catanduanes Nueva Ecija Ilocos Norte Northern Samar Tarlac Apayao Rizal Benguet Camarines Norte

  21. HAZARD EL NINO IPCC-DDC-CRU 0.5º x 0.5º grids (1971-2000)

  22. RISK (Drought/El Niño) Sulu Basilan Maguindanao Lanao Del Sur Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Misamis Occidental Sarangani Zamboanga Del Sur South Cotabato Zamboanga Del Norte North Cotabato Sultan Kudarat Siquijor Tawi-tawi Negros Oriental Camiguin Davao del Norte Misamis Oriental Bukidnon

  23. HAZARD EARTHQUAKE National Geographic Data Center 0.25º x 0.25º grids (1963-2001)

  24. RISK (Earthquake) Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan Western Samar Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Surigao Del Sur Albay Rizal Cavite Cebu Occidental Mindoro Camarines Sur La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Laguna Metro Manila

  25. HAZARD EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED SHALLOW LANDSLIDES PHIVOLCS

  26. RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides) Albay Rizal Cebu Camarines Sur Tarlac Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Western Samar Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Laguna Misamis Occidental Capiz Davao del Norte Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte

  27. HAZARD DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOES PHIVOLCS

  28. RISK (Volcano) Sulu Albay Tarlac Zambales Negros Oriental Pampanga Batangas Davao del Norte Biliran Camiguin Laguna Sorsogon South Cotabato Camarines Sur Quezon North Cotabato Bukidnon Cagayan Leyte Negros Occidental

  29. HAZARD TSUNAMI Environmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF

  30. RISK (Tsunami) Albay Cavite Cebu Zambales Pangasinan La Union Pampanga Batangas Sarangani Masbate Negros Oriental Metro Manila Surigao Del Norte Bataan Leyte Surigao Del Sur Bulacan Romblon Bohol Misamis Oriental

  31. HAZARD PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE Commonwealth and Scientific Research Organization 5.625º x 3.2º grids (2066-2095)

  32. RISK (Temperature) Sulu Basilan Lanao Del Sur Maguindanao Lanao Del Norte Davao Del Sur Zamboanga Del Sur Tawi-tawi Misamis Occidental Camiguin Siquijor Misamis Oriental Cebu Agusan Del Norte Zamboanga Del Norte Albay Sarangani Negros Oriental Negros Occidental Ifugao

  33. HAZARD PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75º x 2.5º grids (2066-2095)

  34. RISK (Rainfall Change) Albay Pampanga Ifugao Rizal Cavite Sorsogon Laguna Biliran Batangas Pangasinan Masbate Metro Manila Tarlac Nueva Ecija Northern Samar Aklan Capiz La Union Western Samar Romblon

  35. HAZARD DEFORESTATION Global DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  36. HAZARD MINING Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  37. Volcano Tsunami Typhoons EQ-Induced Landslides Rainfall Temperature El Niño Earthquake

  38. In sum, harm’s way: • Typhoon • Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east) • Drought (El Nino) • Mindanao (central, west) • Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami • Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP • Volcano • Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central) • Climate Change • Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central) • Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)

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