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SMB TRAINING OPTIONS TRAINING PROGRAM Presents:. The M3 Trading System Part 4 August 2011 Market Crash August Expiration. Brought to you by SMB Training A World Leader in Options Education Created and taught by John Locke Locke in Your Success, LLC.
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SMB TRAINING OPTIONS TRAINING PROGRAM Presents:
The M3 Trading SystemPart 4 August 2011 Market Crash August Expiration • Brought to you bySMB Training A World Leader in Options Education Created and taught by John Locke Locke in Your Success, LLC. “Know what you want, make it happen!”
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August 2011 ExpirationRisk Management and Profit Targets • Trade Size: 1 RUT or 10 IWM Calls • Butterfly Call Ratio: 10 Butterflies to 1 RUT Call (1/1 ratio) • Planned Capital - $50,000 • Profit Target - $5,000 • Max Loss - $5,000 • Reduce Profit Target – in event B/C ratio is altered
About this section • We are going go through trade set up but then we are going to skip the beginning of the trade and go right to where the action is! • Trading extremely volatile moves into expiration. • Responsible trading • Knowing your limitations and when it’s time to give up • Keeping an open mind to the options that are available to you
Fast Forward >>>> to where the trouble startsAugust 2 – 17 DTE
This is what we’ve done so far…. • 6-24 entered with 780 butterflies + 720 call • 7-01 added 10 - 780/790 verticals • 7-07 rolled 780 butterflies to 810 • 7-18 rolled 810 butterflies to 790
In Case you are asking…..NO! We are NOT holding off on an adjustment just because the market is at support! Support and resistance areas are where we are most likely to get the very violent and unpredictable moves. Our position has a lot of down side risk and we need to deal with that risk.
We have increased range to the downside without taking on excessive upside risk and we can take a violent move in either direction
Roll back 750 butterflies 40 points to 710 butterflies and roll back 780/790 vertical spreads to 710/720 vertical spreads
New Position We are taking on a little upside risk but certainly nothing excessive
4 Days Later -10 AMAugust 8 – 11 DTE Down 75 points from resistance
Position could use an adjustment but, since we happen to be checking this position once a day, we will wait till 3:30 The purpose of this slide is to show that we “could have” caught this move before it got too bad
If this were live, you’d want to be out of the position this close to expiration with this kind of price movement. But let’s see how long we can hold a relatively safe position!
This is the new 90 ish Delta call Greeks are good
4 Days LaterAugust 12 – 7 DTE Over 50 point swing in 3 days
Upside risk is more than we would like but not a huge problem
We have some options:Stay where we areLow risk directional playHop and hope
Low risk directional playThis would be a great alternative to closing the position at a loss. We could pull off most of our upside price movement risk and Theta risk and wait.
Being “willing” to accept a reasonable loss… can create great results!
Hop and HopeCenter our position ATM and hope the price doesn’t move
We close out the existing position and reposition ATM…In doing so, we do not want to take on excessive risk because “One win IS NEVER, EVER worth risking a massive loss!!!
If we choose to stay in we need to cut back the downside risk