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CLIMATIC CHANGE THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC SITUATION IN HUNGARY THE CHANGING TENDENCIES OF THE HUNGARIAN CLIMATE

Zsolt H ARNOS BUESPA Department of Mathematics and Informatics Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in Hungary June 28-July 2, 2004 Grainau, Germany. CLIMATIC CHANGE THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC SITUATION IN HUNGARY THE CHANGING TENDENCIES OF THE HUNGARIAN CLIMATE

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CLIMATIC CHANGE THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC SITUATION IN HUNGARY THE CHANGING TENDENCIES OF THE HUNGARIAN CLIMATE

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  1. Zsolt HARNOSBUESPADepartment of Mathematics and Informatics Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in HungaryJune 28-July 2, 2004 Grainau, Germany

  2. CLIMATIC CHANGE • THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC SITUATION IN HUNGARY • THE CHANGING TENDENCIES OF THE HUNGARIAN CLIMATE • THE IMPACT OF THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE CONDITION OF THE WHEATPRODUCTIVITY

  3. Summer mean temperature change (ºC) in Europe

  4. Summer precipitation change (%) in Europe

  5. Change in winter wheat and sunflower yield under the UKTR 2064 climate change scenario

  6. yearly temperature 5 years moving average of yearly temperature years

  7. yearly precipitation years 5 years moving average of yearly precipitation

  8. temperature months

  9. 1951-90 Mean temperature

  10. 1951-90 Yearly precipitation

  11. Debrecen precipitation (mm) Debrecen mean temperature (ºC)

  12. Frequency of the 4 climatic year types in each 20 year period 18

  13. Precipitation (mm) Precipitation sum of April and May

  14. 1951-1990 Temperature sum Effective temperature sum of May and June

  15. Distribution of precipitation sums of April and May

  16. Distribution of effective temperature sum of May and June

  17. simulated observed Model validation (winter wheat)

  18. The results of the simulation

  19. Simulated winter wheat yields

  20. precipitation Győr years precipitation Debrecen years Winter wheat yield simulation under the HadCM2 scenario

  21. Cumulative distribution of (a) winter wheat yields and (b) percentage yield loss for the Debrecen region using the BASE, HCGG scenarios

  22. Productivity of winter wheat in Hungary

  23. Definition of the production risk The production (yield) function is where x– state variable – stochastic variable representing the weather u– control variable (agrotechnique) The distribution of the yield 26

  24. The determination of the functions and based on the analysis of yield timeseries The simplified model is: where expresses the genetic and agrotechnical development.

  25. Empirical distribution of maize yield loss relative residual 28

  26. wheat maize The distribution of relative loss of yield Csongrád county Hajdú-Bihar county 29

  27. THE EXPECTABLE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC CHANGES ARE • THE EXISTING AGRICULTURAL ZONES WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH • THE ARID NATURE OF CLIMATE WOULD STRENGTHEN, WHICH WOULD BRING ALONG WITH IT INCREASED RISK FOR CULTIVATION

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